NHL power rankings: Golden Knights, Stars among five Stanley Cup contenders as regular season begins

Credit: © Stephen R. Sylvanie

Scott here! The power rankings are back for another season at Daily Faceoff, but we’re making a big change to the format this year.

No, I won’t be changing the system through which I make my list. I’ll still be aggregating the same six stats from last season (points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick), and including the rule that no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead in the standings, regardless of where the aggregate places them.

But, that won’t be the only voice of reason. This season, I’ll be joined by fellow Daily Faceoff writer Mike Gould, who will make his own list, and then we’ll aggregate both our lists for the final rankings. I’ll bring the statistical analysis and cold-hard facts, Mike will bring the vibes (while also being quite smart himself), and we’ll try to not get into too many fights over it.

As we enter the first week of the regular season, we’ve copped out a bit with our preseason rankings. Instead of doing a #1-32 list and getting exposed later on in the season for our takes, we tiered teams into five different categories: Cup Contenders, Playoff Contenders, In the Bubble, Longshots and Lottery Contenders. Of course, since Mike and I didn’t agree on every team, we split our disagreements down the middle into four sub-tiers between those main five: Cup Hopefuls, Playoff Hopefuls, Fringe Playoff Teams and Too Bad to be Good, Too Good to be Bad.

Don’t worry though, we’ll return to your regularly-scheduled rankings next week. Let’s dive in.

Cup Contenders

Carolina Hurricanes

Scott: The Hurricanes will always be considered a Cup contender when they have this group of players, coaches, and management together. But there will always be that big question mark looming over them of whether they can convert their dominant possession into goals.

Colorado Avalanche

Mike: Even without Gabriel Landeskog, these Avs are a force to be reckoned with. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar aren’t about to take last year’s stunning loss to the Seattle Kraken lying down. Colorado’s forward depth is a concern, but the top guys can paper over the cracks — and they know how to win.

Dallas Stars

Scott: The Stars made it all the way to the Western Conference Final last season, and they still managed to get better by bringing in Matt Duchene and Craig Smith, not to mention a youth influx with Logan Stankoven if he gets called up (he was just loaned to the AHL). Their defense still has some loose ends (how Ryan Suter isn’t bought out is beyond me), but they should be in the hunt all year.

New Jersey Devils

Mike: Not many teams have better vibes than the Devils, who became the talk of the NHL last year after evolving into a bona fide Cup contender seemingly overnight. Jack Hughes is the real deal, his brother Luke is primed for a breakthrough, and new addition Tyler Toffoli adds yet another scoring threat to a stacked forward group. If the goaltending can hold up, this Devils team could go all the way.

Vegas Golden Knights

Scott: Hot take alert: I think the defending Stanley Cup champions could win again this year. They brought back basically the same team, so there’s no reason to believe they can’t do it again this year.

Mike: Scott. You’re forgetting someone. They didn’t bring back Phil Kessel! They’re doomed.

Scott: Crap, you’re right. Lottery contender it is.

Cup Hopefuls

Edmonton Oilers

Scott: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have obviously proven that they can elevate their play when it matters most, but until the team around them shows that they can play just well enough to not lose, consider me doubtful on their Cup potential.

Mike: As much as it pains me to say it, the Oilers are scary. Leon Draisaitl has learned how to flip that switch every single year as soon as the playoffs come around, and Connor McDavid is, well, Connor McDavid. I still don’t love the defense or that goaltending tandem, but the Oilers have the pieces to go far.

New York Rangers

Scott: This is a great team, but considering that the rebuild has kind of failed and given them little support behind the older group carrying the load, every year that passes is a year closer to their window slamming shut.

Mike: I have the Rangers in my top tier. There’s no denying that Alexis Lafrenière and Kaapo Kakko haven’t exactly lived up to expectations in the NHL, but c’mon now. Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox can carry a team a long, long way. Artemi Panarin is coming off a big playoff no-show, but he’ll be better this year. I don’t know if they’ll win the Cup, but it’s certainly possible.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Scott: This might be the first season in a while in the Auston Matthews era of the Leafs where there are actually depth pieces of note surrounding the main core and young prospects are challenging for positions. They’ve got a few red flags (particularly Ryan Reaves and John Klingberg), but they seem like the runaway favorites in the Atlantic. They’ll probably choke this away somehow, but maybe that playoff series win will change their nature a bit.

Mike: I don’t dislike the Leafs by any means, but this feels like a bit of a transitional year for them. Willy Nylander is a pending UFA, and I can see that becoming a bit of a distraction if the team gets off on the wrong foot. The defense still lacks a No. 1 guy and I don’t love Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll as a goaltending tandem for a playoff team. They’ll make it, but I don’t think this is the year.

Scott: What do you mean? Every year is the Leafs’ Year™.

Playoff Contenders

Calgary Flames

Mike: Talk about a team due for some positive regression. Darryl Sutter’s departure should be addition by subtraction for Jonathan Huberdeau, Jacob Markstrom, and Co., coming off a disastrous season in which they actually finished ahead of the next team on our list but missed the playoffs entirely. If Matt Coronato lives up to his billing as the second coming of Mike Cammalleri, the Flames could make some noise.

Florida Panthers

Scott: The Panthers would probably be a Cup contender if not for the fact that Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour are missing the first couple of months of the season with their injuries. The goaltending also remains a question mark, especially with Spencer Knight in the minors to start the year, but the rest of the group is strong enough to at least hang on to a lower playoff spot right now.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Mike: Yeah, yeah, this feels low for Tampa Bay, but they also get dinged here for somehow being the team to end Toronto’s playoff curse. C’mon, Bolts, how could you? Steven Stamkos is in the last year of his deal and hasn’t been re-signed, which is odd when you consider how eager Tampa has been to extend the likes of Nick Paul and Erik Cernak long-term. Also, Andrei Vasilevskiy is out until after U.S. Thanksgiving. Sheesh.

Playoff Hopefuls

Boston Bruins

Scott: This team had a decent amount of favorable luck to have that record-breaking 2022-23 season, so some regression from that and their forward depth getting completely gutted makes this team questionable for me. David Pastrnak will probably drag this team kicking and screaming into the playoffs, but it’s a much tougher path than last season.

Mike: We’ve been down this road before, Scott, albeit at a time when the Bruins still had Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. I still think they make it pretty easily. Jim Montgomery will need to prove why he’s the reigning Jack Adams Award winner this year. If he can elevate a team with Pavel Zacha as its No. 1 center into a divisional playoff spot, he should win it again.

Los Angeles Kings

Scott: The Kings made a big bet on Pierre-Luc Dubois, sacrificing a lot of their forward depth in the process, so L.A. better hope that Dubois is the guy to build around and replace Anze Kopitar in the long term. On top of that, they didn’t really fix their goaltending problems, and their division will be tough for the first time in years. It’s a good team, but playoffs are far from a certainty this season.

Mike: I think the Kings are one of the most overrated teams in the league. Their defense is middling, their goaltending is worse, and they parted with a decent chunk of their forward depth to add a guy in Dubois who has never surpassed 63 points in a season. Consider me unconvinced.

Minnesota Wild

Scott: Minnesota will always be a question mark while the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts weigh over them, but they still have a competitive roster and should be a lock if Filip Gustavsson continues his play from last season. If Marco Rossi can live up to his potential this season and finally give Kirill Kaprizov a talented center to play with, watch out.

Mike: Sure. I guess. Kaprizov is great, don’t get me wrong, and I like Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin plenty. Brock Faber could slide right into a top-four role. I think Marc-Andre Fleury will steal the starting gig right back from Filip Gustavsson (good competition never hurt anybody) and Mats Zuccarello will continue to chug along. The Wild are fine, I just don’t like them nearly as much as, say, Boston.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Mike: I think this Pens team will rebound in a big way. Erik Karlsson is a huge add and I think his arrival will have a positive impact on everyone in the organization, with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang right at the forefront. That power play is gonna be fierce. It’s an ooooooold team, but I think they end up making it with weeks to spare.

Scott: Offloading a lot of bad contracts and getting Karlsson completely changes the outlook of this Pens team. They should be in the hunt for the playoffs, and you can never bet against Sid, Geno and Letang, but the inconsistent effort from them last year leaves me slightly doubtful of them.

Seattle Kraken

Scott: The Kraken found success last season off of the deepest forward group in the league, and they only swapped out Daniel Sprong for Kailer Yamamoto. Their division is getting tougher so it’s far from a lock, but this team does have the ability to squeeze in again this season.

Mike: Do I think Seattle is better than Vegas, Edmonton, and Calgary? Nope. I think they’re on the same level as L.A. and slightly ahead of Vancouver, but certainly not by a wide margin. Their goaltending should be better, but their crazy finishing luck from last year is primed to run out pretty quickly in 2023–24. I’m expecting a big step back.

On the Bubble

Buffalo Sabres

Scott: People forget that the Sabres were just one point away from making the playoffs last year, and this team is going to get another youth injection with Zach Benson and Devon Levi. If the young guys make the steps that were expected and the defense/goaltending can just be good enough, this is going to be a fun team that can also make the playoffs.

Mike: NHL GMs remain undefeated. Benson falling to No. 13 overall was just wild. Among the teams that passed on him, I’m the most surprised at the Canucks — he’s that good, and he’s from Langley! We’ll see how Benson translates when the games actually mean something, but the early returns are promising.

New York Islanders

Mike: Hey, sure, man. It’s the Islanders. Lou Lamoriello is firmly in “No F’s Given” mode, and you kinda have to hand it to him for continuing to do things his way in the year 2023. Brock Nelson is cool, Ilya Sorokin might be the best goalie in the league, and Pierre Engvall is signed until the end of time. What more do you want?

Winnipeg Jets

Scott: Last season’s Jets went out with a whimper, were rightfully called out by their coach, and did little to fix that in the offseason outside of trading Pierre-Luc Dubois and buying out Blake Wheeler. If Cole Perfetti stays healthy, he could make for a strong second line center if he builds on last season, and Connor Hellebuyck can carry the Jets if he wants to, but there’s going to be little room for error in the West this season, and Winnipeg has a few too many question marks.

Fringe Playoff Teams

Arizona Coyotes

Scott: The Coyotes look to be actually trying to field a competitive hockey team as opposed to acting as a cap-laundering scheme for 31 other teams, and with Logan Cooley joining the fold, they may have a chance. They’ve still got some work to do, but they should take some steps forward this season.

Mike: I think the Coyotes are better than a few teams ahead of them on this list. They’re plucky. Cooley looks legit. They still need to figure it out on defense (respectfully, J.J. Moser isn’t a No. 1) but both Connor Ingram and Karel Vejmelka can steal games in goal and the top line of Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Barrett Hayton was dynamite down the stretch last year.

Ottawa Senators

Scott: We haven’t even reached Game 1 of the regular season yet, and the Senators already appear to be down two centers with Josh Norris’ health in question and Shane Pinto still unsigned. If they get the whole roster iced they’ll be in the conversation all year, but it’s not a good look to start, and I’m also veeeeeery skeptical of Joonas Korpisalo as a starting goalie.

Mike: Oh, Ottawa. What will we do with you? The Sens have shed picks left and right like they’re a contender, but this is still the same team that’s missed the playoffs every year since 2018. Sure, Vladimir Tarasenko and Dominik Kubalik are here (although neither is as good as Alex DeBrincat). But what good are they without Norris and Pinto? As is, I think this team looks roughly as good as, if not a little bit worse than, the one that missed the playoffs last year.

Vancouver Canucks

Scott: The Canucks made a few additions that certainly make the team better, although the issue is that it’s not enough to make them truly competitive, and they should probably be rebuilding. That means they shouldn’t be as bad as last year, and Thatcher Demko rebounding could be big for them, but I wouldn’t exactly pencil them into a spot.

Mike: The defense is still just awful, I’m sorry. It’s not good enough at all. I get the Western Conference is weak, but Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek alone can’t carry this team from the point. I’d be concerned about Elias Pettersson pumping the brakes on any contract discussions, too. It’s going to be a weird year in Vancouver, and I’m not convinced it’ll be a good one.

Longshots

Columbus Blue Jackets

Mike: Well, at least the Mike Babcock saga is over. Johnny Gaudreau playing with Adam Fantilli is a tantalizing long-term prospect, and David Jiricek should be able to lock down a spot this year, but the Blue Jackets are still a few years away from returning to relevance in the Eastern Conference.

Detroit Red Wings

Scott: The Red Wings kept themselves in the playoff conversation for most of last season, and they added enough guys that they’ll continue to look competent. Will Alex DeBrincat be the kind of gamebreaking talent the Wings need to take that next step, or will they just float in mediocrity for most of the season?

St. Louis Blues

Mike: The Blues love making pundits like us look bad, so get ready for them to put up another 100 points this year and make the playoffs with home-ice advantage in the first two rounds. On paper, however, they look like an 11th-place team in the Western Conference. There’s a huge, Alex Pietrangelo-sized hole on defense, and Jordan Binnington’s transformation into a pumpkin is nearly complete.

Washington Capitals

Scott: This is basically the same Caps team as last season, so unless a lot of people bounce back, I don’t have high hopes for them making up ground in a loaded Eastern Conference. Besides, they seem content with just giving Alex Ovechkin a competitive enough team to score some goals and break the record.

Too Bad to be Good, Too Good to be Bad

Anaheim Ducks

Scott: The Ducks have added a fair amount of young talent and solid veteran players to drastically improve this team, but they were so bad last season that the floor is still quite low. I think it’s enough to take them out of that bottom tier of teams, but they’ve still got plenty of work to do to even sniff the playoffs.

Mike: I cannot believe Scott doesn’t have the Ducks in his bottom tier. Are you feeling alright, Scott? Do I need to bring you some DayQuil? Good lord. Even with Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale back in the fold, these Ducks are going to be horrendous.

Scott: In my defense, I still think they’ll be really bad, but like Montreal Canadiens bad. Clearly a bad team that looks better than they probably should be, but somehow they have a good 5-10 point margin over the four teams below them. I think a full year from Drysdale, plus contributions from Pavel Mintyukov and (eventually) Leo Carlsson and Olen Zellweger makethem only just good enough to be out of the basement.

Nashville Predators

Scott: The Preds team saw a significant cultural shift in the offseason, but that also leaves very few pieces around to keep them competitive. That said, they nearly made the playoffs with a young group driving the bus, so that and Juuse Saros being Juuse Saros could give them a chance. At the very least, I don’t see Nashville being lottery pick levels of bad.

Mike: I have the Preds finishing 32nd in the league. That’s not a typo. I think they’re going to be dreadful after parting ways with Matt Duchene, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Johansen, Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, Tanner Jeannot, and Eeli Tolvanen. Filip Forsberg is going to need to evoke Atlas to carry this team out of the basement.

Lottery Contenders

Chicago Blackhawks

Scott: I almost had the Hawks one tier higher solely because of the Connor Bedard factor, but the rest of this team is just so bad that I feel like they’ll stay in the lottery hunt. People forget that Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin had dueling 100-point seasons while the Pens and Caps finished in the bottom two spots in the East, so Bedard can only do so much.

Montreal Canadiens

Mike: Boy, the Habs sure could use a guy like Logan Cooley. I didn’t get the Juraj Slafkovsky pick at the time and it makes even less sense to me now. I think he’ll be a decent NHLer, but … yikes, man. Cooley looks like a potential superstar, and he’s NHL-ready right now. Slaf might need time in the AHL this year. We’ll see. Anyway, as much as I love Sean Monahan, I can’t see the Canadiens doing much of anything to escape the basement this season.

Scott: I’m surprised it took us this long for Mike to use another team to talk about the Coyotes.

Mike: I’ll be limiting myself to one per column.

Scott: I guess if you didn’t, literally no one else would.

Philadelphia Flyers

Mike: I’m here for the Sean Couturier renaissance, and I’m glad to see Cam Atkinson back as well. The Ivan Provorov trade was a master stroke by new GM Danny Briere, who also got arguably the steal of the draft with Matvei Michkov at No. 7 overall. For the first time in a long, long while, there’s a real sense of optimism in some circles of Flyers hockey fans. But for now, this team is gonna be pretty bad.

San Jose Sharks

Scott: With the other lottery contenders, I can at least see a scenario where they overperform and kill their lottery odds. The Sharks have absolutely nothing going for them. They were the second-worst team last year and they had a 100-point defenseman and a 40-goal pace winger that are no longer here. This isn’t bleak, this is a wasteland of joy.

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