NHL power rankings: Will a coaching change help the slumping Ottawa Senators?
My, how quickly the hockey world moves. It took only a few hours for our rankings to get outdated, originally focusing on the security of Ottawa Senators head coach D.J. Smith, only for him to get fired by the afternoon. He’s still the topic of discussion later in this article, so appreciate Mike Gould’s words as a time capsule of sorts, but we’ve revamped the theme of the power rankings as a whole.
Mike and I continue to navigate through the results so far with another week of our co-op power rankings. I have my same old system which I aggregate six stats (points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) to come up with a list that eliminates my own biases, along with a rule that no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead of them in the standings, regardless of where the aggregate places them. On the other hand, Mike goes off his own intellect and pure vibes, and together we find a way to combine it and meet in the middle.
1. Vegas Golden Knights
Record: 21-6-5, +32
Last Week: 1st (0)
Mike’s Rank: 1st
Scott’s Rank: 2nd
Scott: The Golden Knights keep chugging along, having now won five of their last six games after beating the Flames and Sens last week, with a 5-2 loss to the Sabres sandwiched in the middle there. Their underlying numbers also continue to improve and rank in the top 10 except for their power play, so their first place rank in the league is starting to be more justified.
2. Boston Bruins
Record: 19-5-5, +21
Last Week: 2nd (0)
Mike’s Rank: 3rd
Scott’s Rank: 1st
Mike: The Bruins went to overtime in each of the three games they played this week, capping it off with a 2-1 loss to the Rangers on Saturday in which they were generally outplayed and likely fortunate to get a point. By and large, these Bruins are still pretty impressive, although I’m a little worried about what might happen to them offensively if David Pastrnak were to go down. Knock on wood!
3. New York Rangers
Record: 21-7-1, +16
Last Week: 3rd (0)
Mike’s Rank: 2nd
Scott’s Rank: 3rd
Scott: Oh no, the Rangers beat the Bruins again, yet we ranked Boston ahead of them, what an insult to hockey writing! The Rangers have been a bit more inconsistent recently, so between that, poor defense and a negative goal differential at 5v5, they are a bit more of a paper tiger compared to the rest of the elite teams.
4. Los Angeles Kings
Record: 17-6-4, +30
Last Week: 4th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 4th
Scott’s Rank: 6th
Mike: Wow, I never thought I’d actually rank the Kings higher than Scott did, but here we are. This is a team that has impressed me at pretty much every turn this season (except when they’ve worn this terrible space-age helmets). He’ll never win, but Drew Doughty legitimately deserves some Norris Trophy consideration with how well he’s played this season. Pheonix Copley hitting LTIR is a tad bit concerning but as long as Cam Talbot keeps winning, things will continue to look good in LA. They’re in a bit of a funk right now but I think they’ll snap out of it.
Scott: Look, the aggregate has them in first, the only reason they are as low as this is because…
5. Vancouver Canucks
Record: 21-9-2, +41
Last Week: 8th (+3)
Mike’s Rank: 7th
Scott’s Rank: 5th
Scott: … The Canucks have built a lead on a lot of teams in the league, so despite having weaker underlying numbers than a lot of the top teams, they jumped up for me because the five point rule only allows them to be this low. With points in six straight, only the Golden Knights, Bruins, Rangers and Avs are close to them at the moment in the standings.
Mike: I may or may not have bumped the Canucks down by one spot in my own personal rankings because they didn’t retire Roberto Luongo’s number. What were they thinking!?
6. Colorado Avalanche
Record: 19-10-2, +17
Last Week: 7th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 8th
Scott’s Rank: 4th
Mike: The Avs won three of four games this week but I’m a little worried about their goaltending in the long run. Ivan Prosvetov has done better than I ever expected of him amidst Alexandar Georgiev’s struggles but this Avs team clearly lacks a No. 1 and their depth down the middle also isn’t the greatest. The good news: Nathan MacKinnon is going nuclear and Cale Makar is probably going to win the Norris (if not the Hart).
Scott: I think the big concern with Georgiev is figuring out if he can handle a starting goalie workload. He started 30 more games last season than he ever had in his career, and he’s on pace for 63 games this year, and that’s including this recent stretch where they’ve split the starts more.
7. Florida Panthers
Record: 18-10-2, +12
Last Week: 5th (-2)
Mike’s Rank: 5th
Scott’s Rank: 7th
Scott: Another team that would be higher on my list if not for the Canucks, the Panthers have had an inconsistent start to their Northwest road trip. First they had back-to-back 4-0 losses to the Kraken and Canucks, but then salvaged the week with a 5-1 win over the Oilers. They’ll hope to split the trip on Monday against the Flames.
8. Toronto Maple Leafs
Record: 16-6-6, +16
Last Week: 9th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 6th
Scott’s Rank: 9th
Mike: Leafs fans were not happy with me over the weekend for saying Alex Kerfoot is better than Max Domi. Even though I was right about that, I’ll still make a transparent effort to get back into those fans’ good books by saying some nice things about the Leafs here. Here goes: Auston Matthews is the best goal-scorer in the world, Willy Nylander will probably re-sign, and your team would look terrific if they gave the Flames all their draft picks for Chris Tanev. Happy?
Scott: No.
9. Dallas Stars
Record: 17-8-4, +11
Last Week: 6th (-3)
Mike’s Rank: 9th
Scott’s Rank: 11th
Scott: We finally knocked the Stars out of the 4-6 spots that they held onto for so long. Then again, they’ve gone 6-5-3 since November 18th, so it’s been long overdue that they slipped out of the elite category with middling results like that.
10. Philadelphia Flyers
Record: 17-10-3, +11
Last Week: 10th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 10th
Scott’s Rank: 10th
Mike: It’s 10s across the board from us for these Flyers, who continue their surge up the standings and toward a playoff spot under the tutelage of prospective Jack Adams Award frontrunner John Tortorella. Rasmus Ristolainen had a great quote the other day, saying he wished he’d been able to learn from Tortorella when he was entering the league with the Buffalo Sabres as a teenager. Risto’s game has advanced leaps and bounds under Philly’s notoriously demanding head coach.
11. Carolina Hurricanes
Record: 16-12-3, 0
Last Week: 11th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 13th
Scott’s Rank: 8th
Scott: The Canes managed to snap their four-game losing streak with back-to-back wins over the Sens and Wings, but then went right back to where they started with back-to-back losses to the Preds and Caps. Amidst all this, the Canes sent Antti Raanta down to the minors, so it’s Pyotr Kotchetkov’s crease to lose until Frederik Andersen returns, which reportedly could be in the next month or so.
12. Winnipeg Jets
Record: 18-9-2, +21
Last Week: 12th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 11th
Scott’s Rank: 14th
Mike: Scott and I are probably underrating the Jets a bit by having them here, but it’s hard to buy into any of the hype around these guys. This Jets team has existed in pretty much this exact form for the last six or seven years. They haven’t accomplished a whole lot, save for one run to the West Final back in 2018 (and that was back when they still had Big Buff). And now they’re without Kyle Connor for six to eight weeks? Yikes.
13. Nashville Predators
Record: 18-13-0, +5
Last Week: 15th (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 12th
Scott’s Rank: 13th
Scott: Never thought I’d see the day where Mike had the Preds ranked higher than I did. They’ve really found their groove recently with wins in seven of their last eight games, and a 13-3-0 record going back to November 18th. Suddenly, they’re two points away from taking the top spot in the Central Division.
Mike: I have to give them credit: Saros is on fire and the rest of the guys are following along. Filip Forsberg has reached another level, Gus Nyquist is back in a big way, and Ryan O’Reilly just keeps doing his thing. This current run isn’t sustainable but this team has a decent amount going for it.
14. Washington Capitals
Record: 15-9-4, -10
Last Week: 19th (+5)
Mike’s Rank: 14th
Scott’s Rank: 15th
Mike: The Capitals have scored 70 goals in 28 games this year. That’s the second-fewest in the entire league. Alex Ovechkin is currently mired in the longest goal-scoring drought of his entire NHL career. And yet, somehow, this Caps team lands in the top half of our rankings. They’ve allowed just 80 goals, putting them in the upper echelon of the league, and although it’s hard to see Charlie Lindgren maintaining a .925 save percentage the rest of the way, he certainly deserves recognition for what he’s managed to do thus far.
15. New Jersey Devils
Record: 16-12-1, -3
Last Week: 14th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 19th
Scott’s Rank: 12th
Scott: It’s been two steps forward and one step back for the Devils lately, as last week saw them win back-to-back games against the Bruins and the Blue Jackets before dropping a 5-1 loss to the Ducks. While I still believe in them, they’re going to start running out of runway soon if they don’t pull the trigger on a goalie upgrade soon.
16. New York Islanders
Record: 14-8-8, -6
Last Week: 17th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 17th
Scott’s Rank: 17th
Mike: Sorry, Islanders fans: I have to bring back the bit. Losing to Montreal sealed the deal. I get your team is somehow still in third place in the Metropolitan Division despite having won fewer games than Arizona and Washington this year, but that doesn’t mean you’re safe from my tried-and-true refrain: “It’s the Islanders. Who cares?”
17. Tampa Bay Lightning
Record: 14-13-5, -9
Last Week: 18th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 18th
Scott’s Rank: 16th
Scott: It’s starting to look like Andrei Vasilevskiy wasn’t the magical elixir that was going to solve all of the Lightning’s problems. I don’t expect him to have an .897% save percentage all season, but they’ve gone 5-7-0 since his return to the lineup, and that includes his win in the first game. There’s still a lot of issues that need to be fixed in Tampa Bay in spite of Nikita Kucherov’s stellar season, and depending on where they sit come trade deadline time, I wonder if they look to shop Steven Stamkos with his contract expiring at the end of the season.
18. Detroit Red Wings
Record: 15-11-4, +12
Last Week: 13th (-5)
Mike’s Rank: 16th
Scott’s Rank: 19th
Mike: Patrick Kane’s first six games as a Detroit Red Wing have been tough to watch. Individually, he hasn’t been on the ice for a single 5-on-5 goal for in that span; on the whole, the Red Wings have been reeling in the absence of Dylan Larkin, David Perron, and others. Detroit is still in striking distance of a playoff spot but it hasn’t been a lot of fun for that team of late.
19. Arizona Coyotes
Record: 15-13-2, +7
Last Week: 16th (-3)
Mike’s Rank: 15th
Scott’s Rank: 22nd
Scott: The Yotes find themselves in the exact same spot as before their winning streak against Cup winners, back at .500 hockey with a 15-13-2 record. I should probably give them more credit for back-to-back shutout wins, but their underlying numbers have started to slip lately, which never favours well in my aggregate.
20. Pittsburgh Penguins
Record: 13-13-3, +2
Last Week: 21st (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 21st
Scott’s Rank: 18th
Mike: I would imagine Kyle Dubas did not expect his return to Toronto to turn out quite like that. His Penguins were utterly humiliated by the Maple Leafs on Saturday night, giving up three goals in the first and second periods en route to a 7-0 final. It must have been such a bittersweet feeling for the ex-Leafs GM, who played an enormous role in assembling the team on the other end … just to watch them run over his new club. The good news: Pittsburgh did win two games last week, although they came against lesser opponents (Arizona and Montreal).
21. Edmonton Oilers
Record: 13-14-1, 0
Last Week: 20th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 20th
Scott’s Rank: 20th
Scott: How frustrating must it be for the Oilers right now. They’ve won 11 of their last 16 games, have seen their already good numbers look even better under a new coach, and they are finally getting consistent goaltending from Stuart Skinner, and what’s their reward? They’ve moved up from 31st in the league to 27th, and are only five points out of a playoff spot instead of seven. It really puts into perspective how much of a hole they dug themselves to start the season.
22. Minnesota Wild
Record: 12-12-4, -5
Last Week: 22nd (0)
Mike’s Rank: 22nd
Scott’s Rank: 21st
Mike: Well, the Wild are coming off back-to-back-to-back wins over Seattle, Calgary, and Vancouver, but the real story in Minny pertains to the simultaneous investigations that reportedly took place into the recent behavior of GM Bill Guerin and now-ex-AGM Chris O’Hearn. Although it’s currently believed that Guerin will remain on with the Wild, it’s just not a great look for that organization — and tough for its fans — when a story like that (rightfully) takes the attention away from their bounceback on the ice.
23. Calgary Flames
Record: 12-14-5, -16
Last Week: 24th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 25th
Scott’s Rank: 23rd
Scott: The Flames managed to snap a four-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Lightning on Saturday, and on top of that, Jakob Markstrom seems set to return to the lineup again, so things may be on the up-and-up soon. Whether or not that’s good news for Flames fans, I’ll let them decide, but I have a feeling it’s probably not.
24. Montreal Canadiens
Record: 13-13-4, -20
Last Week: 26th (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 24th
Scott’s Rank: 25th
Mike: The Habs were pretty competitive this week. It was great to see Josh Anderson be given a standing ovation by the fans at the Bell Centre after scoring twice in Montreal’s big 5-3 win over the Islanders on Saturday. Sean Monahan now has 19 points in 30 games and is Montreal’s goal-scoring leader. It’s looking like another non-playoff season for the Canadiens, but they do have some good potential trade chips in Monahan, Jake Evans, Tanner Pearson, and Jake Allen.
25. St. Louis Blues
Record: 15-14-1, -11
Last Week: 27th (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 23rd
Scott’s Rank: 27th
Scott: I love our unwillingness to acknowledge the Blues as a playoff threat no matter how long they’ve either been in a wild card spot or just outside it. To be fair, the low ranking is earned this week with how chaotic it’s been off the ice between the surprising firing of Craig Berube to Jordan Kyrou proceeding to be booed by Blues fans for not having much to say about the firing.
26. Seattle Kraken
Record: 10-14-8, -18
Last Week: 28th (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 27th
Scott’s Rank: 24th
Mike: Tomas Tatar was a no-risk addition for a Kraken team struggling to do anything of note in its third season. Pretty much everyone on the roster has regressed after last year’s big surprise — what’s worse, Matty Beniers having four goals in 32 games or a minus-20 rating? — and the team is absolutely nowhere near contention. The priority at this point has to be getting guys like Beniers, Ryker Evans, and Tye Kartye going, as well as selling off vets like Jordan Eberle, Alex Wennberg, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and Justin Schultz.
27. Buffalo Sabres
Record: 13-16-3, -15
Last Week: 25th (-2)
Mike’s Rank: 26th
Scott’s Rank: 26th
Scott: The Sabres split their week with wins over the Coyotes and Golden Knights and losses to the Avalanche and… the Coyotes. The injuries keep on coming with Jeff Skinner on IR now, and yet they only sit six points behind the first wild card spot with only one extra game played. They can’t exactly waste anymore time getting a run together, but the season is still far from over.
28. Ottawa Senators
Record: 11-15-0, -1
Last Week: 23rd (-5)
Mike’s Rank: 28th
Scott’s Rank: 28th
Mike: Back when Brian Burke fired Ron Wilson as head coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2012 — shortly after he had signed a contract extension, no less — the famously quotable (and Harvard-educated) lawyer-turned-GM said it would have constituted “cruel and unusual punishment” to allow Wilson to coach another game at what was then known as the Air Canada Centre. I wonder if the same philosophy applies to Sens bench boss D.J. Smith, who has seemingly been out of answers for weeks, if not months. Ottawa has lost four in a row. It’s gauche to fire a guy at Christmas, but what else can the Sens do?
Scott: Sure, they’ve got 4-6 games in hand on most teams they’re chasing, but you gotta win those games in hand and after losing four in a row, they haven’t exactly been doing that.
29. Columbus Blue Jackets
Record: 10-17-5, -21
Last Week: 29th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 29th
Scott’s Rank: 30th
Scott: Man, they really blew a 5-0 lead. Like, I get that they still won, but they made it so much harder than they needed to. What an incredible failure to witness. What else is there? Patrik Laine’s hurt for a while, I guess, there really isn’t much to talk about with this team beyond the absolutely embarrassing moments.
30. Anaheim Ducks
Record: 11-19-0, -22
Last Week: 32nd (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 31st
Scott’s Rank: 29th
Mike: You know those Dawn soap commercials? The ones where they’re cleaning residue from an oil spill from the feathers of all those ducks? Yeah, someone had better get Pat Verbeek a bottle of that stuff. Adam Henrique had a hat trick on Sunday to propel the Ducks past his former team in New Jersey. Before that, these not-so-mighty duckies had gone 14 games without a regulation win.
31. San Jose Sharks
Record: 9-19-3, -58
Last Week: 31st (0)
Mike’s Rank: 30th
Scott’s Rank: 32nd
Scott: Who would have thought that after an 0-10-1 start, the Sharks would go 9-8-2 and somehow not be the worst team in the league by the 30-game mark? Their poor underlying numbers are more just a subject of their historically bad start too, as they’ve mostly been hovering around the same numbers that the Blackhawks have. That’s still bad, just not historically bad.
32. Chicago Blackhawks
Record: 9-20-1, -39
Last Week: 30th (-2)
Mike’s Rank: 32nd
Scott’s Rank: 31st
Mike: Connor Bedard is really good. That’s about it. I am beginning to wonder how many more top-five picks the Hawks will need to make to return to the playoff picture, let alone start contending again. That team’s foundation has been so thoroughly dismantled that they’ve been left with Bedard and a smoldering heap of reclamation projects and stagnating draft picks. Lukas Reichel can’t seem to find his way under Luke Richardson and Kevin Korchinski is injured. It’s a tough scene in Chicago.
Scott: They’re really going to give him the Connor McDavid experience, huh?
Mike: Worse. Somehow, even worse.
Scott: Do you think Blackhawks fans will be less or more insufferable about Bedard and Celebrini than Oilers fans are about McDavid and Draisaitl?
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