NHL Power Rankings: Oh there you are, Tampa Bay Lightning

Credit: © Nathan Ray Seebeck

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As the All-Star break approaches and teams also begin their bye weeks, we once again see the deck chairs in the middle moving around, but the best and worst teams more or less stay the same. This week, the Lightning, Capitals, and Senators are the beneficiaries, while the Jets find themselves on the wrong side of it.

As I’ve done so far this season, I’ll be ranking teams not just on their results in the standings but also with how they’ve looked in several stats as well. Otherwise I’d just copy and paste the standings, right? No fun in that. The rankings are an aggregate of six different stats: points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick. But, to ground the rankings a bit, no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead in the standings, regardless of the aggregate.

1. Boston Bruins

Record: 38-7-5 (.810%, 1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +50 (1st)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.78 (t-11th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.28 (2nd)
PP xGF/60: 9.04 (10th)
PK xGA/60: 6.21 (1st)
5v5 PDO: 103.2
Previous Week: 1st (0)

I’m sorry, there must be something wrong with my notes. It says the Bruins lost three games in a row? That can’t be true, can it?

Well, it is. After extending their six-game winning streak against the Canadiens, they lost three straight games to the Lightning, Panthers, and Hurricanes. Now, those are all three solid teams, so that’s not an embarrassment or anything, but it’s still surprising to see, even if it was inevitable.

2. Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 32-9-8 (.735%, 2nd)
5v5 Goal Differential: +25 (5th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.19 (1st)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.04 (1st)
PP xGF/60: 9.04 (10th)
PK xGA/60: 6.21 (1st)
5v5 PDO: 103.2
Previous Week: 2nd (0)

The Hurricanes find themselves on a five-game winning streak, along with points in eight straight after beating the Stars, Sharks, and Bruins last week. They keep getting closer to dethroning the Bruins in the rankings based on the aggregate, but that massive point advantage is a whole other hurdle for the Canes to overcome.

3. Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 31-12-8 (.686%, 4th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +28 (4th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.87 (t-8th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.39 (t-6th)
PP xGF/60: 9.12 (8th)
PK xGA/60: 6.83 (2nd)
5v5 PDO: 101.4
Previous Week: 4th (+1)

The Leafs also find themselves on a bit of a hot streak, as they have a 5-1-1 record in their last seven after wins over the Islanders, Rangers, and Capitals. The loss to the Senators was an ugly one, but they’ll probably have one or two of those at the moment with Auston Matthews out for the next few weeks.

4. New Jersey Devils

Record: 32-13-4 (.694%, 3rd)
5v5 Goal Differential: +35 (3rd)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.03 (3rd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.43 (9th)
PP xGF/60: 9.49 (6th)
PK xGA/60: 7.74 (12th)
5v5 PDO: 101.1
Previous Week: 3rd (-1)

The Devils took two out of their three matchups last week, beating the Golden Knights and the Stars, with a loss to the Predators sandwiched between them. They drop a spot as the Leafs are just a tad bit hotter, showcasing how close these two teams are right now and how much more swapping may occur between them before the playoffs.

While the Leafs and Devils are close together, the Stars are really in a tier of their own, as even a three-game losing streak doesn’t move them out of fifth place. Taking all three of defeats to overtime does help their case, but I still think they would rather be on the winning side of those matchups.

6. Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 29-18-4 (.608%, 10th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -3 (t-19th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.66 (15th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.36 (4th)
PP xGF/60: 9.1 (9th)
PK xGA/60: 7.11 (5th)
5v5 PDO: 99.5
Previous Week: 7th (+1)

The Golden Knights had a week to forget, dropping all three games during their trip to the New York area last week against the Devils, Rangers, and Islanders. Despite that, they move up a spot as the Jets seem to be in an even worse rut, but more on that shortly.

7. Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 32-15-1 (.677%, 5th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +23 (t-6th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.93 (4th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.57 (15th)
PP xGF/60: 7.97 (18th)
PK xGA/60: 8.04 (16th)
5v5 PDO: 101.9
Previous Week: 9th (+2)

The Lightning rebounded from back-to-back losses out West in a big way, taking all three games last week against the Wild, Bruins, and Kings. That moves them up a couple spots, putting them past the struggling Jets, as well as a Wild team that is doing fine but switched with the Lightning partly due to that game between them.

8. New York Rangers

Record: 27-14-8 (.633%, 8th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +14 (9th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.56 (22nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.5 (12th)
PP xGF/60: 10.14 (1st)
PK xGA/60: 8.03 (15th)
5v5 PDO: 100.6
Previous Week: 10th (+2)

While they didn’t outright win out last week, the Rangers will certainly take points in all three games after they beat the Panthers, lost in overtime to the Leafs, and then finished off the week with a win over the Golden Knights. That one point is what puts them up a couple places, as it gives them a slight edge over the Wild.

9. Minnesota Wild

Record: 27-17-4 (.604%, 11th)
5v5 Goal Differential: 0 (18th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.42 (23rd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.29 (3rd)
PP xGF/60: 9.71 (4th)
PK xGA/60: 7.58 (t-9th)
5v5 PDO: 100.1
Previous Week: 8th (-1)

The Wild saw their losing streak extend to three games to start off last week after falling to the Lightning, but then they snapped back with wins over the Flyers and Sabres. They still drop down a spot, but that has more to do with the success of the teams right in front of them right now.

10. Edmonton Oilers

Record: 28-18-4 (.600%, 12th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +8 (t-11th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.89 (6th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.61 (16th)
PP xGF/60: 10.09 (2nd)
PK xGA/60: 8.48 (t-22nd)
5v5 PDO: 100.4
Previous Week: 11th (+1)

The Oilers find themselves in the top 10 for the first time all season, as even though their six-game win streak came to an end, they still have points in their last eight. That streak was snapped to start the week with an overtime loss to the Blue Jackets, but then they rebounded with a blowout win over the Blackhawks.

11. Seattle Kraken

Record: 29-15-5 (.643%, 7th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +42 (2nd)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.6 (20th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.46 (t-10th)
PP xGF/60: 6.04 (30th)
PK xGA/60: 7.58 (t-9th)
5v5 PDO: 102.3
Previous Week: 12th (+1)

While they still haven’t been on another heater quite like their road trip earlier in the month, I’m sure the Kraken will still take two out of three after beating the Canucks and Blue Jackets, although the loss to the Flames could be a big one in the Pacific playoff race. They still find themselves in this section of the rankings due to their weaker offense, but they slide up a spot due to the current fall of the Jets.

12. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 31-19-1 (.618%, 9th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +6 (15th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.65 (t-16th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.67 (21st)
PP xGF/60: 8.96 (t-11th)
PK xGA/60: 7.22 (6th)
5v5 PDO: 101
Previous Week: 6th (-6)

After their highest ranking of the season last week, they take the biggest drop of the week after losing three straight this week, and five of their last seven overall. It goes to show how close this section of teams on the list is, as a bit of a slump combined with bad underlying numbers during the stretch means they take a big hit.

13. Calgary Flames

Record: 24-17-9 (.570%, 17th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +8 (t-11th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.88 (7th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.38 (5th)
PP xGF/60: 8.13 (16th)
PK xGA/60: 6.98 (3rd)
5v5 PDO: 98.4
Previous Week: 13th (0)

The Flames stick around in the same spot as last week, as they still haven’t gone on a long enough hot streak to get back within five points of some of the teams ahead of them here. They still did well this week, taking two of three games with wins over the Blue Jackets and Kraken, although the loss to the Blackhawks puts a bit of a stain on it.

14. Washington Capitals

Record: 26-20-6 (.558%, 19th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +5 (t-16th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.64 (18th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.46 (t-10th)
PP xGF/60: 8.96 (t-11th)
PK xGA/60: 8.14 (17th)
5v5 PDO: 99.9
Previous Week: 17th (+3)

You would think that finally having a mostly healthy roster would mean the Capitals can keep up the winning from last month, but they’ve actually been super inconsistent by not winning back-to-back games at all in January, including losing two of three last week. At the very least, their underlying numbers have been quite good with the healthier lineup, which is why they still moved up three spots.

15. Los Angeles Kings

Record: 28-18-6 (.596%, 13th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -8 (22nd)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.62 (19th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.41 (8th)
PP xGF/60: 7.64 (t-23rd)
PK xGA/60: 7.27 (7th)
5v5 PDO: 98
Previous Week: 15th (0)

The Kings continue to stick around in the middle of the pack, not quite dominant but still good enough to stay in the playoff race. They put together a bit of a win streak after beating the Blackhawks, Flyers, and Panthers but ended last week on a bad note with a loss to the Lightning.

16. Florida Panthers

Record: 24-22-6 (.519%, 22nd)
5v5 Goal Differential: +9 (10th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.11 (2nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.63 (t-18th)
PP xGF/60: 9.29 (7th)
PK xGA/60: 7.94 (14th)
5v5 PDO: 99.7
Previous Week: 16th (0)

Last week would have been a great opportunity to catch up in the playoff race with four games on the schedule, especially since most of the other teams that they’re fighting with have games in hand. But, they still can’t quite put it all together and dropped the first three games to the Rangers, Penguins, and Kings, although they did have the honor of being the team that started Boston’s first losing streak of the season.

17. Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 24-16-9 (.582%, 15th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -3 (t-19th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.9 (5th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.62 (17th)
PP xGF/60: 8.87 (13th)
PK xGA/60: 8.51 (24th)
5v5 PDO: 99.9
Previous Week: 14th (-3)

The Penguins are hanging on to the final playoff spot in the East after a stretch of three losses in their last four games, but that doesn’t save them from dropping a few spots in the rankings. They did start off last week with the lone win of that stretch against the Panthers, but they lost the next two to the Caps and the Sharks.

18. Colorado Avalanche

Record: 27-18-3 (.594%, 14th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -5 (t-16th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.57 (21st)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.39 (t-6th)
PP xGF/60: 7.96 (19th)
PK xGA/60: 8.55 (t-25th)
5v5 PDO: 100.3
Previous Week: 18th (0)

The Avalanche continued their hot streak last week even if they did lose one of their games, as it’s the lone loss in a stretch of seven wins in eight games. The fact that the loss came to the Ducks is a bad look, but they did beat the Caps and Blues to make up for it.

19. New York Islanders

Record: 25-22-5 (.529%, 20th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +17 (8th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.65 (t-16th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.81 (25th)
PP xGF/60: 7.86 (21st)
PK xGA/60: 8.47 (21st)
5v5 PDO: 101.4
Previous Week: 19th (0)

It hasn’t been a pretty month for the Islanders, as a stretch of 10 losses in 11 games is making a run to the playoffs all the harder for them. They lost to the Leafs and Sens to continue that stretch last week, but they did snap back with two straight wins against the Red Wings and Golden Knights to end the week and end it.

20. Buffalo Sabres

Record: 26-19-4 (.571%, 16th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +8 (t-11th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.68 (14th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.64 (20th)
PP xGF/60: 6.38 (26th)
PK xGA/60: 8.91 (28th)
5v5 PDO: 100.5
Previous Week: 21st (+1)

Despite an up-and-down season for the Sabres, they are now just one point out of a playoff spot thanks to a five-game winning streak and points in their last seven games. They got three of those wins last week against the Stars, Blues, and Jets before the streak was ended with a shootout loss to the Wild.

21. Ottawa Senators

Record: 23-23-3 (.500%, t-23rd)
5v5 Goal Differential: -29 (29th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.84 (10th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.7 (22nd)
PP xGF/60: 9.52 (5th)
PK xGA/60: 8.55 (t-25th)
5v5 PDO: 97.1
Previous Week: 24th (+3)

The Senators seem to have put an end to their stretch of seven losses in nine games last week thanks to winning three games in a row. Some of them were dominant performances too, particularly the 6-2 win over Toronto and the 5-0 win over Montreal, and that moves them up three spots as a result.

22. Nashville Predators

Record: 24-18-6 (.563%, 18th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +7 (14th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.87 (t-8th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.84 (26th)
PP xGF/60: 7.21 (25th)
PK xGA/60: 9.14 (29th)
5v5 PDO: 101.1
Previous Week: 20th (-2)

The Predators are keeping their playoff hopes alive for the time being after they won three straight last week against the Kings, Jets, and Devils. They do drop a couple of spots, but that’s just because the Sabres and Senators have been just as hot as the Preds and playing a little bit better.

23. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 21-19-8 (.521%, 21st)
5v5 Goal Differential: -12 (23rd)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.18 (30th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.63 (t-18th)
PP xGF/60: 7.8 (22nd)
PK xGA/60: 8.22 (18th)
5v5 PDO: 99.8
Previous Week: 22nd (-1)

The Red Wings have quietly drifted out of the playoff race in the East, but that hasn’t stopped them from getting some wins in still, even if they moved down with the Sens on a hotter streak at the moment. They started off last week with wins over the Sharks and Canadiens before ending it with a shutout loss to the Islanders.

24. Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 21-21-9 (.500%, t-23rd)
5v5 Goal Differential: -6 (21st)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.4 (24th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.75 (23rd)
PP xGF/60: 5.55 (32nd)
PK xGA/60: 8.41 (20th)
5v5 PDO: 99.8
Previous Week: 25th (+1)

The Flyers didn’t have the best start to the week as they found themselves on a three-game losing streak after dropping games to the Kings and the Wild last week, but they put it to an end by adding to the Jets troubles with a 4-0 win. They still moved up a spot, but that’s more because of the Blues’ skid than the success of the Flyers.

25. St. Louis Blues

Record: 23-24-3 (.490%, 25th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -20 (26th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.39 (t-25th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.8 (24th)
PP xGF/60: 6.12 (29th)
PK xGA/60: 8.48 (t-22nd)
5v5 PDO: 99.3
Previous Week: 23rd (-2)

The Blues are really making the case for selling at the deadline after losing four straight to the Blackhawks, Sabres, Coyotes, and Avalanche. It drops them down a couple of spots, partially because of the Sens hot streak, but also because the Blues are somehow doing worse than the Flyers as well.

26. San Jose Sharks

Record: 15-25-11 (.402%, 28th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -16 (t-24th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.78 (t-11th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.53 (14th)
PP xGF/60: 7.9 (20th)
PK xGA/60: 7.69 (11th)
5v5 PDO: 99.1
Previous Week: 28th (+2)

As has been the case for most of the season, the Sharks’ placement has more to do with not having enough points to catch up to other teams, and this week they move up a couple places because of the fact that they caught up to two teams. Even though they lost two of three last week, both defeats came in overtime,so they still got four points out of the week, although that doesn’t help their lottery odds.

27. Vancouver Canucks

Record: 20-26-3 (.439%, 27th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -16 (t-24th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.39 (t-25th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.85 (27th)
PP xGF/60: 8.01 (17th)
PK xGA/60: 8.84 (27th)
5v5 PDO: 99.3
Previous Week: 26th (-1)

The Rick Tocchet effect has sort of kicked in in Vancouver. Winning two of three isn’t much of a hot streak, but it’s also the first time they’ve done that in 2023, so maybe there’s something there. They still move down a spot, but that’s more because of the Sharks catching up than the Canucks necessarily struggling.

28. Montreal Canadiens

Record: 20-26-4 (.440%, 26th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -22 (27th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.28 (27th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.08 (31st)
PP xGF/60: 6.36 (t-27th)
PK xGA/60: 9.74 (31st)
5v5 PDO: 99.3
Previous Week: 27th (-1)

While the Canucks moved down in spite of their week, the Canadiens dropped a spot because they actually did have a bad week, as they lost three straight to the Bruins, Red Wings, and Senators. Even though the Sharks caught up to them, the five point rule still saved them a bit, as they could have been as low as 30th this week.

To finish off the list, I’m going to do something a little bit different. We didn’t have any movement in the bottom four on the rankings, so I thought I’d pay tribute to Gary Bettman’s comments about how there’s no tanking in the league by grouping together all the teams that are obviously tanking this season. That, and there are also only so many ways that I can describe how bad these teams are, so I thought I’d leave some more options for me down the road after they sell off and get really bad.

29. Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 15-32-3 (.330%, 32nd)
5v5 Goal Differential: -48 (t-30th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.22 (29th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.88 (29th)
PP xGF/60: 7,64 (t-23rd)
PK xGA/60: 8.28 (19th)
5v5 PDO: 98.1
Previous Week: 29th (0)

30. Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 15-29-4 (.354%, 31st)
5v5 Goal Differential: -48 (t-30th)
5v5 xGF/60: 1.93 (32nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.04 (30th)
PP xGF/60: 6.36 (t-27th)
PK xGA/60: 7.89 (13th)
5v5 PDO: 98.5
Previous Week: 30th (0)

31. Anaheim Ducks

Record: 16-29-5 (.370%, 30th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -59 (32nd)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.24 (28th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.52 (32nd)
PP xGF/60: 8.17 (15th)
PK xGA/60: 10.11 (32nd)
5v5 PDO: 97.9
Previous Week: 31st (0)

32. Arizona Coyotes

Record: 16-28-6 (.380%, 29th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -23 (28th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.11 (31st)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.86 (28th)
PP xGF/60: 5.94 (31st)
PK xGA/60: 9.63 (30th)
5v5 PDO: 100.2
Previous Week: 32nd (0)

The only real movement we got in this group in the standings is that the Ducks and Blackhawks swapped places, as the Ducks wanted to prove Gary right by winning out last week, including two against a fellow tanker in the Coyotes.