NHL Power Rankings: Shorthanded Boston Bruins are dominant anyway

Credit: © Brian Fluharty

We’re now two weeks into the 2022-23 season, and with that we’re slowly starting to see which teams are looking competitive and which teams aren’t. There’s still plenty of rope left for most teams, but let’s see which ones look noticeably strong or weak early on.

Much like with the first regular season edition last week, I’ll be ranking teams not just on their results in the standings, but also with how they’ve looked in several stats as well. Otherwise I’d just copy and paste the standings, right? No fun in that. The rankings are an aggregate of six different stats: points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick. But, to ground the rankings a bit, no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead in the standings, regardless of the aggregate.

1. Boston Bruins

Record: 5-1-0 (.833%, 4th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +5 (t-7th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.13 (4th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.01 (3rd)
PP xGF/60: 9.75 (6th)
PK xGA/60: 5.39 (4th)
5v5 PDO: 101.4
Previous Week: 2nd (+1)

The second-ranked team last week moves up to the top spot after a 3-1 week, including strong wins against the Panthers, Ducks, and Wild. The Bruins struggled against the Senators in what was their only game this season to fall below 50 percent in expected goals, but otherwise this team has been consistently great in every department in the early going this season. Pretty impressive stuff with no Brad Marchand or Charlie McAvoy.

2. Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 4-0-1 (.900%, t-2nd)
5v5 Goal Differential: +15 (1st)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.65 (2nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.03 (5th)
PP xGF/60: 10.7 (4th)
PK xGA/60: 9.4 (25th)
5v5 PDO: 109.2
Previous Week: 1st (-1)

And last week’s No. 1 team swaps places with this week’s No. 1 team, as the Penguins fell down to earth a little bit after a molten hot first week. The real kick to their ranking was a middling loss to the Canadiens, but a blowout win over the Kings and a dominant performance against the Blue Jackets keeps them near the top. It’ll be interesting to see where this team falls when it starts to play against tougher competition in the coming weeks.

The Stars finally got to play more than just the Predators this week, with big wins over both the Jets and Canadiens to keep up their point streak to start the season. If there’s any concern so far, it’s a middling penalty kill and the fact that the only high-end team they played gave them their only loss, but the Stars are shining to start the season.

4. New Jersey Devils

Record: 3-2-0 (.600%, t-13th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +1 (t-12th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.82 (1st)
5v5 xGA/60: 1.65 (1st)
PP xGF/60: 9.27 (t-9th)
PK xGA/60: 6.16 (6th)
5v5 PDO: 93.2
Previous Week: 12th (+8)

After an 0-2 start, a 12th place ranking last week may have seemed insane, but the Devils jumped up even further up the rankings this week after a 3-0 week. They may have come against the Ducks, Islanders, and Sharks, but the fact they haven’t fallen below a 60 percent expected goal share through five games is an impressive feat and a big reason why the Devils find themselves this high.

5. Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 3-1-1 (.700%, 9th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +8 (2nd)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.41 (3rd)
5v5 xGA/60: 1.96 (2nd)
PP xGF/60: 6.9 (20th)
PK xGA/60: 6.5 (9th)
5v5 PDO: 104.2
Previous Week: 3rd (-2)

The Canes drop a couple places after a somewhat mediocre week, going 1-1-1 while continuing their west coast road trip. The win over the Kraken went as expected, but the loss to the Oilers was a bit ugly, and while they lost in overtime to the Flames, the Canes tried their hardest not to with a whopping 83.92 percent expected goal share in the game.

6. Florida Panthers

Record: 4-1-1 (.750, 8th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +6 (t-4th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.65 (14th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.28 (8th)
PP xGF/60: 9.66 (7th)
PK xGA/60: 7.05 (12th)
5v5 PDO: 102.6
Previous Week: 6th (0)

No Aaron Ekblad, no problem. Even with their defense core looking a bit bare without their top defenseman, the Panthers weathered the storm with a 2-1-1 week after losing Ekblad in the first of those four games. The losses to the Bruins and Lightning weren’t pretty ones, but they took care of business when they were up against the Flyers and Islanders with strong performances in both games.

7. Calgary Flames

Record: 4-1-0 (.800%, t-5th)
5v5 Goal Differential: 0 (t-15th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.66 (13th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.53 (17th)
PP xGF/60: 10.18 (5th)
PK xGA/60: 5.31 (3rd)
5v5 PDO: 97.9
Previous Week: 7th (0)

The Flames 5-on-5 play hasn’t quite been at the level we expect to see from them since Darryl Sutter took over behind the bench, but some strong special teams performances have helped the team for now. After a strong game against the Golden Knights, the Flames were surprised by a surging Sabres team and then got significantly outplayed by the Canes with a 16.08% expected goal share before squeaking out with an OT win. Hopefully this is just a couple of off games to start the season for Calgary.

8. Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 4-2-0 (.667, t-10th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -1 (17th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.82 (8th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.5 (t-15th)
PP xGF/60: 9.27 (t-9th)
PK xGA/60: 4.79 (2nd)
5v5 PDO: 97.8
Previous Week: 11th (+3)

Speaking of normally dominant Canadian teams, the Leafs also have a couple inconsistencies to work out as the season starts. Despite the usual panic amongst Leafs Nation, they should be fine and are mostly dealing with a bit of shooting luck, especially from top sniper Auston Matthews. After a shocking yet entirely predictable loss to the Coyotes, they beat the Stars in OT while being a bit outplayed and then really responded with a strong performance against the Jets.

9. St. Louis Blues

Record: 3-0-0 (1.000%, 1st)
5v5 Goal Differential: +2 (11th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.43 (21st)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.47 (13th)
PP xGF/60: 7.8 (15th)
PK xGA/60: 0.89 (1st)
5v5 PDO: 105
Previous Week: 5th (-4)

The Blues may be one of the quietest undefeated teams I’ve seen in my time as a hockey fan. Part of that has to do with the fact that they’ve played just three games while some have played seven or eight, but also the on-ice performance has been middling as well, aside from a comically low expected goals against on the penalty kill. They got outplayed in their win over the Kraken but looked a lot better while shutting out the Oilers (although they did let Connor McDavid enter the zone while batting a puck to himself).

Still can’t believe McDavid did this shit in an NHL game 😂

pic.twitter.com/GKjfD5uPrg

— Drew Livingstone (@ProducerDrew_) October 23, 2022

10. Ottawa Senators

Record: 3-2-0 (.600%, t-13th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +6 (t-4th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3.05 (5th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.02 (4th)
PP xGF/60: 6.22 (24th)
PK xGA/60: 7.62 (15th)
5v5 PDO: 102.5
Previous Week: 20th (+10)

After an 0-2 start, the Sens rebounded with a 3-0 week and are slowly starting to look legit. They particularly looked good against the Bruins, the best team out of the bunch they played this week, but also dominated the Capitals and walked all over the Coyotes with a 81.14 percent expected goal share, while Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson lead the charge offensively with eight points each.

11. Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 4-2-0 (.667%, t-10th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +5 (t-7th)
5v5 xGF/60: 3 (6th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.11 (6th)
PP xGF/60: 5.88 (30th)
PK xGA/60: 6.64 (11th)
5v5 PDO: 102.6
Previous Week: 8th (-3)

After a 3-0 opening to the season, the Golden Knights saw that undefeated start end right away, going 1-2 this week. Both losses came at the hands of strong contenders in the West in the Flames and Avalanche, although the Golden Knights still looked good against the Avs, and their lone win was a strong performance against the Jets.

12. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 3-0-2 (.800%, t-5th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +3 (t-9th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.45 (20th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.02 (28th)
PP xGF/60: 8.38 (12th)
PK xGA/60: 5.63 (5th)
5v5 PDO: 103.5
Previous Week: 10th (-2)

The Red Wings still haven’t been beaten in regulation this season, but a look under the hood and you can see that this team hasn’t been quite as good as the record indicates. They sit in the 20s in both expected goal creation and suppression but are getting by on some good special teams, a strong start from new addition Ville Husso in net and a high shooting percentage offense.

13. New York Rangers

Record: 3-2-1 (.583%, t-16th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -2 (t-18th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.79 (11th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.38 (10th)
PP xGF/60: 13.41 (1st)
PK xGA/60: 9.64 (26th)
5v5 PDO: 96
Previous Week: 9th (-4)

The Rangers continue to look more and more like an actually competitive team this season that isn’t solely reliant on the goaltending of Igor Shesterkin. That’s actually helped their start as Shesterkin has been underperforming through his first four games, but Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, and Adam Fox have been putting up points to balance it out so far. However, losses to the Sharks and Blue Jackets aren’t the best look to start the season.

14. Colorado Avalanche

Record: 3-2-1 (.583%, t-16th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +3 (t-9th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.29 (23rd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.42 (12th)
PP xGF/60: 6.71 (22nd)
PK xGA/60: 6.4 (8th)
5v5 PDO: 101.7
Previous Week: 16th (+2)

The Avs are slowly making their way up the rankings as the Stanley Cup hangover starts to wear off, although their inconsistencies continue to persist early on. Their offense seems to be struggling after losing several pieces in the offseason, as well as Gabriel Landeskog to injury, but they did outperform their opponent in two of their four games this week and won two as well, although all those things didn’t happen in the same two games.

15. Seattle Kraken

Record: 2-3-2 (.429%, t-21st)
5v5 Goal Differential: -2 (t-18th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.96 (7th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.39 (11th)
PP xGF/60: 5.22 (31st)
PK xGA/60: 6.33 (7th)
5v5 PDO: 97
Previous Week: 27th (+12)

The Kraken find themselves as the highest ranked team below .500, and to their credit, they should be doing a lot better with how they’re performing but are once again dealing with some brutal goaltending from Philipp Grubauer and Martin Jones. They’ve only lost the expected goal battle twice in their first seven games and did have an impressive win against the Avs this week while also outplaying them.

16. Buffalo Sabres

Record: 4-1-0 (.800, t-5th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +7 (3rd)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.72 (12th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.77 (22nd)
PP xGF/60: 4.29 (32nd)
PK xGA/60: 8.72 (22nd)
5v5 PDO: 107.8
Previous Week: 25th (+9)

I really hate to be that guy. The Sabres are off to a strong start, Rasmus Dahlin is finally breaking out, and Sabres fans actually seem to have a slight glimmer of hope of the teams NHL record playoff drought ending.

BUT, they are really riding the percentages, and aside from an OK offense, they sit in the bottom third of the league in the other three underlying number categories here, including the worst power play chance generation in the league. They did manage to outplay the Flames and Canucks in their most recent wins, but we’ll have to see a bit more out of this team before we get too confident.

17. Los Angeles Kings

Record: 3-4-0 (.429%, t-21st)
5v5 Goal Differential: -4 (t-26th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.52 (19th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.7 (20th)
PP xGF/60: 8.14 (13th)
PK xGA/60: 6.52 (10th)
5v5 PDO: 99
Previous Week: 22nd (+5)

The Kings jump up the standings after seeing some slight improvements in most of their numbers or at least relative to the rest of the league but are still struggling in the win category with some goalie woes. They looked good in an OT win over the Red Wings but otherwise floated around average for the rest of the week.

18. Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 4-2-0 (.667%, t-10th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +1 (t-12th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.04 (29th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.99 (27th)
PP xGF/60: 6.92 (19th)
PK xGA/60: 7.32 (14th)
5v5 PDO: 102.3
Previous Week: 18th (0)

The Flyers have already started to see a bit of normalization from their 2-0 start in the first week, going 2-2 but keeping their same spot as their record still saves them from their weak underlying numbers at both ends of the ice. They kept that undefeated streak to three games after beating the Lightning and got one more against the Preds, but also lost to the Panthers and the Sharks.

19. Washington Capitals

Record: 3-3-0 (.500%, t-18th)
5v5 Goal Differential: +1 (t-12th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.06 (28th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.5 (t-15th)
PP xGF/60: 8.92 (11th)
PK xGA/60: 9.72 (27th)
5v5 PDO: 101.8
Previous Week: 24th (+5)

The Caps seem to have recovered from a 1-2 start or at least enough to get to .500 with wins over the Canucks and Kings, although they certainly struggled in their loss to the Senators. Their expected goal creation at 5-on-5 is certainly concerning, and the more those numbers stay in the bottom third of the league, the more those growing theories that the Caps are running through Alex Ovechkin to get him goals to beat Wayne Gretzky’s record start to seem true.

20. Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 3-3-0 (.500%, t-18th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -2 (t-18th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.81 (t-9th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.82 (25th)
PP xGF/60: 8 (14th)
PK xGA/60: 11.98 (31st)
5v5 PDO: 98.4
Previous Week: 28th (+8)

This is certainly an improvement in the power rankings over their 28th rank last week, but there are still some struggles for this team that go beyond simply taking it easy during the regular season. Their defense has struggled mightily without Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta, both at even strength and on the penalty kill, but they started to outplay their opponents a bit more last week, particularly against the Panthers and Flyers.

21. Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 3-2-0 (.600%, t-13th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -3 (t-24th)
5v5 xGF/60: 1.93 (31st)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.34 (9th)
PP xGF/60: 6.21 (25th)
PK xGA/60: 8.05 (17th)
5v5 PDO: 99
Previous Week: 19th (-2)

While just being above .500 will surprise a lot of fans, the Blackhawks are still tanking for Connor Bedard if you look under the hood. Their offense in particular has struggled to consistently generate chances at even strength and on the power play, and only playing two games last week also masked their struggles during their wins over the Red Wings and Kraken.

22. Edmonton Oilers

Record: 2-3-0 (.400%, t-24th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -4 (t-26th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.55 (16th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.07 (29th)
PP xGF/60: 10.78 (3rd)
PK xGA/60: 9.04 (23rd)
5v5 PDO: 96.7
Previous Week: 26th (+4)

Despite losing two of their three games last week, the Oilers actually saw slight improvement in their underlying numbers at even strength, on the power play and on the penalty kill. They still aren’t amazing aside from the power play (shocker), but they’ve had some brutal shooting luck at even strength, so they’ll likely see some improvement when they can score from there.

23. New York Islanders

Record: 2-4-0 (.333, 27th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -2 (t-18th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.59 (15th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.22 (30th)
PP xGF/60: 7.7 (16th)
PK xGA/60: 8.1 (18th)
5v5 PDO: 98.4
Previous Week: 15th (-8)

As I said in last week’s rankings, the Islanders’ 15th place position was heavily carried by their 5-on-5 goal differential at the time. Now that it’s at -2 after three straight losses to the Devils, Lightning, and Panthers, the Isles drop down quite a bit in the rankings, and with them sitting below a 25 percent expected goal share in two of those three losses, their offense and defense took a hit as well.

24. Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 3-4-0 (.429%, t-21st)
5v5 Goal Differential: -4 (26th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.37 (22nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.9 (26th)
PP xGF/60: 6.89 (21st)
PK xGA/60: 7.18 (13th)
5v5 PDO: 99.1
Previous Week: 31st (+7)

After an 0-3 start dropped them to 31st in last week’s rankings, they won three of four this week to jump up several spots, and all three of those wins actually looked solid as far as their play, too. They had a rough game against the Penguins, and that 0-3 start still hinders their ranking, but this was certainly a much better week for the Blue Jackets.

25. Vancouver Canucks

Record: 0-4-2 (.167%, 32nd)
5v5 Goal Differential: -2 (t-18th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.53 (18th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.63 (19th)
PP xGF/60: 6.46 (23rd)
PK xGA/60: 9.11 (24th)
5v5 PDO: 98.5
Previous Week: 17 (-8)

The Canucks currently find themselves as the only team left this season without a win, and while they haven’t been playing amazingly, they certainly haven’t been the worst team. This is a big reason why they don’t rank the lowest yet, although if they can’t even beat other struggling teams like the Capitals, Blue Jackets, and Wild, it might be a while before they get that elusive first win. At least they aren’t blowing multi-goal leads anymore!

26. San Jose Sharks

Record: 2-6-0 (.250%, t-29th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -7 (t-29th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.13 (27th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.49 (14th)
PP xGF/60: 7.51 (17th)
PK xGA/60: 8.58 (20th)
5v5 PDO: 98.2
Previous Week: 14th (-12)

When the Sharks ranked 14th last week, I mentioned that I figured their numbers were more likely to fall down to their 0-4 record than their record to improve to their numbers at the time. That hunch proved to be right, as despite a 2-2 record, all of their numbers dropped off significantly, most notably their expected goal creation going from 13th to 27th.

27. Nashville Predators

Record: 2-4-1 (.357%, 26th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -2 (t-18th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.54 (17th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.54 (18th)
PP xGF/60: 5.89 (29th)
PK xGA/60: 10.43 (30th)
5v5 PDO: 98.8
Previous Week: 21st (-6)

Turns out life is hard for the Preds when they aren’t playing the Sharks. After those first two wins in Prague, the Preds have lost five straight, including games to the Kings, Blue Jackets, and Flyers last week. The Preds’ 5-on-5 numbers have actually seen improvement in spite of that, so don’t be shocked if they actually win in North America sometime soon.

28. Montreal Canadiens

Record: 3-3-0 (.500%, t-18th)
5v5 Goal Differential: 0 (t-15th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.03 (30th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.75 (21st)
PP xGF/60: 5.91 (t-27th)
PK xGA/60: 10.22 (29th)
5v5 PDO: 99.8
Previous Week: 30th (+2)

In the bottom five of the league, a 2-1 week can be all the difference in moving up a couple spots, and that’s exactly what happened to the Habs this week. Their 6-2 win over the Coyotes was a strong one, but they got outperformed in their other win over the Pens and were beat quite handily by the Stars on Saturday.

29. Minnesota Wild

Record: 1-3-1 (.300%, 28th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -11 (31st)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.14 (26th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.79 (23rd)
PP xGF/60: 9.44 (8th)
PK xGA/60: 9.89 (28th)
5v5 PDO: 91.7
Previous Week: 23rd (-6)

I’m sure the Wild had bigger plans in mind this season than a 1-3-1 start to the year, but they’ve already dug themselves a hole early on this season. Marc-Andre Fleury’s play in net hasn’t improved much, but the team’s play in front of him hasn’t helped either, as they were outplayed in all three games this week, including their only win over the Canucks, although that was just marginally.

30. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 2-3-0 (.400%, t-24th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -3 (t-24th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.16 (25th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.8 (24th)
PP xGF/60: 7.12 (18th)
PK xGA/60: 12.85 (32nd)
5v5 PDO: 98.4
Previous Week: 13th (-17)

The Jets’ drop down the rankings may seem drastic at first glance, but isn’t quite as bad when you remember that the 13th ranking came after one game. A 1-3 week certainly doesn’t help, but the big reason is that they had middling numbers after their opener against the Rangers, and aside from outperforming the Stars in their 4-1 loss, they’ve been outplayed in their other three games, including their 4-3 win over the Avs.

31. Anaheim Ducks

Record: 1-4-1 (.250%, t-29th)
5v5 Goal Differential: -7 (t-29th)
5v5 xGF/60: 2.18 (24th)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.45 (32nd)
PP xGF/60: 6.01 (26th)
PK xGA/60: 8.64 (21st)
5v5 PDO: 99.6
Previous Week: 29th (-2)

Considering that the Ducks don’t rank in the top 20 in any category, it’s almost impressive that they aren’t the worst ranking, but unfortunately for the Ducks’ chances at Bedard, the Coyotes exist. The Ducks have now lost five in a row after their season opener, and they still don’t have a win in regulation either. If Ducks fans need good news, they finally finished a game above a 50 percent 5-on-5 expected goal share in their 5-1 loss to the Wings – at 51.59.

32. Arizona Coyotes

Record: 1-4-0 (.200%, 31st)
5v5 Goal Differential: -13 (32nd)
5v5 xGF/60: 1.53 (32nd)
5v5 xGA/60: 3.4 (31st)
PP xGF/60: 5.91 (t-27th)
PK xGA/60: 8.54 (19th)
5v5 PDO: 93.3
Previous Week: 32nd (0)

In case you were wondering what it takes to beat the Ducks’ performance so far this season, it’s ranking in the bottom six in five of the six categories, ranking in the bottom two in four, and ranking last in two of them. They got that first win of the season out of the way against the Leafs, but they still haven’t found themselves even close to outplaying an opponent so far this season.

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