Best NHL prop bets (Dec. 19): Back this team at long 20-1 odds to continue scoring woes

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Thursday night.

Nashville Predators Lowest-Scoring Team On Slate: +2000 Sports Interaction

The Pittsburgh Penguins have quietly gone on a 7-2-1 tear, which has propelled them them back in the mix for the Eastern Conference’s final Wild Card berth. Pittsburgh has allowed a much more respectable goals against average of 3.00 in those 10 games, and it also holds a solid expected goals against per 60 rating of 2.88 in that span, which ranks 13th-best in the league.

Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry has stabilized of late after a horrible start to the season. In his last six appearances, Jarry has played to a .905 save percentage, which surely goes in hand-in-hand with the fact that Pittsburgh has been far less horrible defensively in its recent outings.

By no means am I trying to tell you the Penguins are some defensive juggernaut, and this is the kind of take that is nerve-racking to put out in the world from a personal perspective.

Keep in mind, though, that this is a 20-1 longshot, and that the Penguins are facing a Predators team which ranks last in the NHL with an average of just 2.25 goals for per game.

Nathan MacKinnon Over 1.5 Points: -110 Sports Interaction

The last 15 San Jose Sharks games have seen a combined average of 6.93 goals per game. And it seems likely they’ll continue to play a lot of high-event games moving forward now that they’ve dealt former goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood to tonight’s opponent, the Colorado Avalanche.

The Sharks’ current strengths and weaknesses should continue to provide good game scripts for opposing superstars like MacKinnon. In their last 15 games, the Sharks are 6-8-1, and hold a +8.7% ROI in that span. Macklin Celebrini has been far more dominant than anybody expected, and he drives an improved Sharks offence which has helped them become a more competitive side.

From a defensive perspective, the Sharks still appear to be one of the league’s worst teams. They have allowed 3.21 xGA/60 and 3.66 actual goals against over the last 15 games.

Ideally Alexandar Georgiev will start in goal for the Sharks versus his former side in this matchup. Georgiev holds a -10.5 GSAx rating and .874 save percentage in 20 appearances this season, which are drastically worse numbers than Blackwood held with the team this season.

Last years Hart Trophy winner has been in strong form of late, as he has put up 14 points in eight games in the month of December. The Avs’ current top line of MacKinnon, Artturri Lehkonen, and Mikko Rantanen has looked outright dominant of late, and should fare well in this matchup.

Over the last two regular seasons MacKinnon has recorded two points or more in 47% of matchups. Given that he is clearly in top form right now, and that a matchup versus San Jose is about as good as it gets, I think -110 is a good price to back a two-point night.

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