Best NHL prop bets (Nov. 18): Take a look at the Avs in these two betting markets
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Monday night.
Colorado Avalanche to be Highest-Scoring Team on Slate: +550 Sports Interaction
With Arturri Lehkonen, Jonathan Drouin, Valeri Nichushkin and Miles Wood now healthy, the Avs’ forward group is significantly deeper than it has been throughout the entirety of this season. The Avalanche authored a disappointing performance on Friday versus Washington in their first game with Nichushkin back in the mix, but the Capitals have defended very well this season, and Colorado’s offense should be one of the league’s best moving forward.
Even having played most of their matchups with a skeleton lineup, the Avs rank ninth in goals per game this season. If Nichushkin and Drouin play at the level we saw throughout most of last year, they suddenly hold one of the best offensive cores in the league.
The Flyers have managed to win three straight, but they still set up as a good team to fade in this market. While Philadelphia is playing better, it has still allowed 3.11 xGA/60 in the month of November, and 3.50 goals against per game this season.
Aleksei Kolosov has been confirmed as the Flyers starting goaltender in this matchup. In a small sample of three games this season, he holds an .863 save % and allowed 3.92 goals against per game.
We will need to fade big offensive nights from teams like the Oilers and Stars who also have favorable matchups, but at +550 we are getting the right number to do so.
Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: -128 Sports Interaction
Coach John Tortorella’s side has been playing stingier defense during its recent 6-3-1 tear. Even amidst their best run of play this season, the Flyers have allowed 27.14 SA/60, though, and in time that mark projects to tick up given the talent on hand.
This price is significantly better than we we typically get for MacKinnon, who has often had lines of 4.5 the last two seasons. Maybe the fact that MacKinnon has had just three shots over the two previous games is playing a role.
MacKinnon is still averaging 17.27 shot attempts per 60, and has proven himself as a volume shooter season after season. His average time on ice should come down now that the Avs forward corps is significantly deeper, but that is well accounted for by this price.
Pierre-Luc Dubois Over 0.5 Points: +125 Sports Interaction
Connor McMichael is stealing all of the headlines with 19 points in 17 games, but Dubois has been tremendous this season and is a massive reason that McMichael has been so productive.
I’ve been betting this prop recently on the belief that in time Dubois is due for more production given how he is playing, and that his offensive output will start to inch closer to McMichael’s. Dubois has four points over the last four games, and we cashed this bet in three of those four matchups.
If he continues to produce at that level, prices like +125 won’t be around for long, and the eye test and underlying metrics suggest this recent hot stretch was due for Dubois.
The Capitals’ second line of Dubois, McMichael and Tom Wilson holds a 57.6% expected goal share and has generated 3.84 xGF/60. Dubois ranks 78th in the league with 5.6 individual expected goals and is due to start finishing chances soon. He has been a better than average shooter in his career (12.3%).
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