NHL betting check-in: Which teams are overperforming or underperforming?

Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin (8) gestures toward goalie Logan Thompson (not shown) as he celebrates scoring a goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the third period at Scotiabank Arena.

Credit: © Dan Hamilton

With the NHL resuming play after the 4 Nations Face-Off break, teams are gearing up for the final stretch of the regular season. Some clubs are well-positioned for a deep playoff run, while others are looking to defy preseason expectations—or salvage what’s left of a disappointing campaign. With just two months remaining, strength of schedule, injuries, and late-season surges will determine which teams rise and which fall in the race to the postseason. Therefore, now is the perfect time to check in on how all 32 teams have performed from a betting perspective.

All points totals courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Anaheim Ducks

Current Regular Season Points Total: 77.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 70.5

Expectations were reasonably low for Anaheim this season, but thanks to great goaltending from Lukas Dostal and, to a lesser extent, John Gibson, the Ducks are on track to clear their regular season points total. That said, some sportsbooks aren’t even offering odds on the team to make the playoffs, given that they’re a virtual lock to miss with just 28 games left and one of the tougher remaining schedules in the NHL.

Boston Bruins

Current Regular Season Points Total: 88.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 99.5

Boston was projected to be in the mix for one of the top three spots in the Atlantic Division, but as things currently stand, the Bruins will be lucky to secure a wild card spot. Sports Interaction lists the Bruins at +190 to make the playoffs, while their odds of missing the postseason are -225.

The Bruins have the fewest games remaining among Eastern Conference teams still in contention, and based on regular season point totals, they also have the toughest remaining schedule. Not to mention, Boston’s top defenseman, Charlie McAvoy, who just returned from injury prior to the 4 Nations Face-Off, is now listed as week-to-week.

Buffalo Sabres

Current Regular Season Points Total: 77.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 87.5

It’s the same old story in Buffalo. The Sabres were projected to be in the playoff mix this season, but it’s now clear that won’t be the case. They had a poor start, going 4-7-1, and just as they looked to be turning things around, a 13-game losing streak solidified them as a disappointment. They’ve gone 11-8-1 since then, but they’re still in last place in the Eastern Conference and will almost certainly fall short of preseason expectations. Buffalo is currently listed at -10000 to miss the playoffs.

Calgary Flames

Current Regular Season Points Total: 86.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 80.5

Dustin Wolf might not win the Calder Trophy, but the 23-year-old has been in goal for 19 of the Flames’ 26 wins so far this season. If he can keep it up, the team might force its way into a playoff spot. However, Calgary’s remaining schedule is tough—though Vancouver’s is as well. That said, the Flames will likely need better goaltending from backup Dan Vladar, who has won just seven of his 22 starts this season, if they want to make up the necessary ground in the Western Conference.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Regular Season Points Total: 104.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 101.5

Carolina hasn’t quite lived up to expectations this season, but there’s still time, and the Hurricanes have one of the easier remaining schedules in the league. The team has dealt with injuries in the crease, which is a large part of why they have underperformed, but with Frederik Andersen back and looking great, and Mikko Rantanen now in the fold, Carolina can still reach its full potential. Just don’t count on them catching the Washington Capitals, who have a 10-point lead and a game in hand.

Chicago Blackhawks

Current Regular Season Points Total: 63.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 74.5

Chicago went out and added a bevy of NHL talent to its roster. However, while players like Teuvo Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi have made an impact, the additions of T.J. Brodie, Ilya Mikheyev, Craig Smith, and Alec Martinez have been underwhelming, and goaltender Laurent Brossoit has yet to suit up for a game following meniscus surgery in late August. So, while Chicago is projected to improve on its 52-point finish in 2023-24, the Blackhawks aren’t going to live up to preseason expectations and they’ve got the toughest remaining schedule based on regular season points totals.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Regular Season Points Total: 100.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 104.5

The Avalanche have the fifth-best points percentage since Nov. 9, but they still find themselves in a wild card spot thanks to a lackluster 6-8-0 start to the season. Colorado has a five-point lead on the Vancouver Canucks, who currently occupy the second wild card spot, and they’re just two points behind the Minnesota Wild, so it’s not a matter of whether they make the playoffs or not, but more so, what spot they will finish in.

The team experienced a major shakeup when they traded away their leading goal scorer, Mikko Rantanen, but Martin Necas has fit in nicely alongside Nathan MacKinnon and the move helped free up some space under the salary cap to add more. As a result, the Avalanche will be a team to watch as the NHL approaches the trade deadline on March 7.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Regular Season Points Total: 84.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 65.5

It’ll be a shame if Columbus doesn’t ultimately make the playoffs given that the Blue Jackets have already crushed expectations. The team is well on track to surpass the betting market’s preseason expectations, having already accumulated 60 points in the standings, but falling short of a playoff berth would be a big disappointment considering the draft position the organization would have ended up with had they not outperformed its regular season points total. The team will get a boost when Kirill Marchenko returns, and then another when Sean Monahan returns from injury, but they’ll need to continue to make due with what they have until then.

Dallas Stars

Current Regular Season Points Total: 105.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 103.5

Dallas was projected to finish slightly behind Colorado in the Central Division, but they’ve been able to stay out in front of both the Avalanche and the Minnesota Wild. There’s not a lot separating the three teams, but Dallas does have a game in hand on Minnesota and two games in hand on the Avalanche. That said, while the Stars are in a good position to claim second spot in the Central Division, they’ll likely have to do it without top defenseman Miro Heiskanen who is listed month-to-month after undergoing a successful knee surgery earlier this month. Fortunately, the club has 4 Nations Face-Off breakout star Thomas Harley to fill the void in his absence.

Detroit Red Wings

Current Regular Season Points Total: 87.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 89.5

The Red Wings are hanging onto a wild card spot, but their underlying metrics leave a lot to be desired and the competition for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference is fierce. Not to mention, Detroit has the second-toughest remaining schedule based on regular season points totals, as their 27 remaining opponents are projected to finish with an average of 92.8 points.

Detroit ranks 28th in even strength expected goals and shot attempts, and they haven’t shown much improvement under new head coach Todd McLellan, despite their winning record. In other words, it’s tough to envision the Red Wings making the playoffs, and sportsbooks agree, as Detroit’s current playoff odds are sitting at +230.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Regular Season Points Total: 107.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 108.5

Edmonton and Vegas are both tied with 72 points heading out of the break, but although the Oilers have a game in hand and a better points percentage than the Golden Knights, the latter has five more regulation wins than the former. Both teams have relatively easy schedules, too, so all signs point to these clubs trading places many times over the next couple of months. That said, considering the Oilers would take on the Colorado Avalanche in round one if the season ended today, and Vegas would play the Los Angeles Kings, winning the Pacific Division might not be the best thing for another long playoff run.

Florida Panthers

Current Regular Season Points Total: 103.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 102.5

It’s far from a guarantee that the defending Stanley Cup champions will finish first in the Atlantic Division, as the Toronto Maple Leafs are hot on their trail. However, there is little doubt that Florida will finish in one of the top-three spots. The Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning both have two games in hand on the Panthers, but Florida has a three-point lead on Toronto and a five-point lead on Tampa Bay. Of course, whatever injury star forward Matthew Tkachuk suffered at the 4 Nations Face-Off could make things tougher on the Panthers, but they do have the second-easiest remaining schedule based on regular season points.

Los Angeles Kings

Current Regular Season Points Total: 101.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 96.5

Los Angeles is just two points ahead of the Canucks for third spot in the Pacific Division, but while Vancouver is the only team in the group with a tougher schedule than the Kings, Los Angeles has two games in hand. In fact, the Kings have played the fewest games (53) in the entire NHL, so they have plenty of runway. So far, the Kings have outperformed the betting market’s expectations, after sportsbooks pegged them to finish with 96.5 points this season, and their top defenseman, Drew Doughty, just made his season debut shortly before the break. As a result, sportsbooks are expecting the Kings to surpass the 100-point mark by season’s end.

Minnesota Wild

Current Regular Season Points Total: 100.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 93.5

What Minnesota has been able to accomplish is impressive given all of its injuries. For long stretches this season, the Wild have been without top players like Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Mats Zuccarello, and their top star, Kirill Kaprizov, has only played in 37 games, but they’re a virtual lock to make the playoffs thanks to a combination of strong team defense and solid goaltending from starter Filip Gustavsson. The Wild rank second in expected goals against per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey, and they’ve got a relatively easy remaining schedule, so with a little bit of injury luck, we could see this team play its best hockey come playoff time.

Montreal Canadiens

Current Regular Season Points Total: 80.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 77.5

For a while, it looked as if the Montreal Canadiens would fall short of surpassing their regular season points total, but a 16-6-1 run between December 3 and January 21 has put them back on track to finish with more points than they did in 2023-24. That said, the Canadiens did lose eight of nine games before the NHL paused for the 4 Nations Face-Off, and they have the fourth-toughest remaining schedule based on regular season points totals. Montreal has 26 games remaining, and their opponents are projected to finish with 92 points on average. So, while the playoffs aren’t entirely out of reach, their odds of making the postseason are sitting at 16/1.

Nashville Predators

Current Regular Season Points Total: 76.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 99.5

No team has underperformed more than the Predators. After the betting market projected Nashville to finish in the 100-point range, sportsbooks now list the Predators’ regular season total at 76.5 points. In hindsight, the additions of Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei were overvalued by bettors and fans, but the team’s current trajectory is beyond embarrassing given that they finished with 99 points last season. The biggest surprise is probably Juuse Saros, who has struggled, ranking 51st in save percentage and 66th in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey.

New Jersey Devils

Current Regular Season Points Total: 99.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 102.5

New Jersey should see the return of its captain, Nico Hischier, following a six-game absence when the Devils host the Dallas Stars on Saturday, but their chances of improving their playoff position haven taken a hit due to Jacob Markstrom’s injury. Markstrom has missed the last seven games after suffering a sprained MCL on Jan. 22 and was subsequently placed on injured reserve with a timeline of four-to-six weeks for his recovery.

That suggests the goaltender will be out until early-to-mid March, so the Devils will be relying on Jake Allen in the meantime. Following Saturday’s game, the Devils will head out on a five-game Western Conference road trip and their upcoming schedule is rather tough, but they’ll play a much easier stretch of games to close out the season, so there’s still a chance they can surpass preseason expectations.

New York Islanders

Current Regular Season Points Total: 86.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 91.5

The Islanders are falling short of the betting market’s preseason projection, partly due to injuries, but the 4 Nations Face-Off break has given players time to recover. Scott Mayfield, Ryan Pulock, and Hudson Fasching were participants in Tuesday’s practice, but the injury situation is still far from ideal. Key players like forward Mat Barzal, defenseman Noah Dobson, and goaltender Semyon Varlamov are still on the shelf, and if the Islanders are going to make a push for the playoffs, they’ll need to return to full strength soon.

Barzal has the longest road to recovery after he had a minor procedure done on his kneecap earlier this month and isn’t slated to return until late March. That’s bad news for the Islanders, who are among the 10 teams with the toughest remaining schedules based on regular season points.

New York Rangers

Current Regular Season Points Total: 89.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 100.5

It wouldn’t be smart to count out the New York Rangers, but they’ve underperformed big time so far this season. Despite ranking sixth in points percentage since Jan. 1st, New York is still three points back of the final wild card spot in the Metropolitan Division and sportsbooks currently project the Rangers will fall short of preseason expectations by 11 points. The good news is that the break provided goaltender Igor Shesterkin time to recover from an upper-body injury and he is expected to be back between the pipes on Saturday after participating in practice on Wednesday and Thursday.

Ottawa Senators

Current Regular Season Points Total: 93.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 90.5

Ottawa is another team that was bitten by the injury bug prior to the break, and the timeline for players like Shane Pinto and Josh Norris is somewhat unclear. The Senators are currently holding onto the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, and they have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league, however, it remains to be seen how taxing the 4 Nations Face-Off was on captain Brady Tkachuk. Tkachuk played great for Team USA, but it’s clear that the tournament took a lot out of him and it remains to be seen if Tkachuk will need time to recover before returning to action for the Senators.

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Regular Season Points Total: 80.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 85.5

Philadelphia has played well through the lens of Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, ranking fifth at even strength, but poor goaltending has kept the Flyers from reaching their full potential this season. When it finally turned around, and Samuel Ersson started to play well, the Flyers’ offense completely fell off. Now, they were never a good offensive team, ranking 18th in goals per 60 minutes as of New Year’s Eve, but since the calendar flipped to 2025, only two teams have scored fewer goals per 60 minutes. Philadelphia doesn’t have the toughest remaining schedule, but it’s not easy by any means, and sportsbooks listed them at 22/1 to make the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Regular Season Points Total: 80.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 90.5

It’s likely that the 4 Nations Face-Off final was the last meaningful game that Penguins captain Sidney Crosby will play this season. Pittsburgh has a relatively easy schedule, but the Penguins are six points back of a playoff spot and all but one of the teams they’re competing against for the spot have games in hand. Crosby was clearly dealing with an injury during the tournament, too, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be in the lineup this weekend when the team returns to action. The Penguins are currently listed at 18/1 to make the playoffs, so there’s a high probability that they will fail to qualify for the third year in a row.

San Jose Sharks

Current Regular Season Points Total: 57.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 63.5

There’s been a few bright spots in San Jose this season, but none brighter than No. 1 overall pick Macklin Celebrini. The 18-year-old is one point behind Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson for the rookie scoring lead, and has a four-point lead on Flyers’ forward Matvei Michkov, despite playing 10 fewer games. As a result, Celebrini is a -300 favorite to win the Calder Trophy. Outside of that, there’s not much to say about the Sharks other than they’ve been slightly worse than expected.

Seattle Kraken

Current Regular Season Points Total: 76.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 87.5

It might be time to hit the reset button in Seattle given that the Kraken are going to miss the playoffs for the third time in four years. Seattle’s inaugural season was its worst, finishing with just 60 points, but they rebounded with 100 points the next year and even eliminated the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Colorado Avalanche, to win their first ever playoff series. However, after finishing with 81 points in 2023-24, Seattle is on pace to finish with fewer points in 2024-25, which suggests they should absolutely be sellers leading up to the March 7 trade deadline.

St. Louis Blues

Current Regular Season Points Total: 82.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 87.5

St. Louis is still in the playoff mix, but the Blues are eight points back of the Vancouver Canucks for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference so it’s not looking good. Sportsbooks currently have the Blues listed at 13/1 to make the playoffs, so the question now becomes, will they be sellers leading up to the NHL trade deadline? I would imagine there would be quite a few teams interested in obtaining the services of goaltender Jordan Binnington, especially following his performance in the 4 Nations Face-Off final, but the 31-year-old does have two years remaining on his contract.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Regular Season Points Total: 98.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 98.5

So far, the Lightning are on track to finish exactly where the betting market expected them to finish, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish with more than 98.5 points. Tampa Bay has the third-easiest remaining schedule based on regular season points, and the break gave star forward Nikita Kucherov time to recover from an injury that he sustained just before the tournament started. That said, players like Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel, and Anthony Cirelli emptied the tank in the tournament, and they might feel that down the stretch. However, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been having a great season, ranking among the top-10 goaltenders in save percentage and goals saved above expected, so they’re in a good spot. Odds are that Tampa Bay will finish among the top-three teams in the Atlantic Division.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Regular Season Points Total: 101.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 102.5

Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner both performed well for their respective countries in the 4 Nations Face-Off, but while Matthews stood out as one of Team USA’s best two-way players, he wasn’t able to cash in on any of his scoring chances and left Connor McDavid wide open in the slot to score the winning goal for Canada in the final. Meanwhile, Marner came through in the clutch three times, scoring an overtime winner in the tournament opener, and assisting on both the tying and winning goals in the final. It remains to be seen if Matthews is fully healthy as he heads back to Toronto to join the Maple Leafs with their sights set on a long playoff run. Regardless, Matthews must find a way to do what he does best (score goals) this spring or it’ll be another early exit.

Utah Hockey Club

Current Regular Season Points Total: 85.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 88.5

The Utah Hockey Club have had a decent first season, but injuries and illness are still plaguing the team right now. The playoffs aren’t totally out of reach, as the team is just five points back of Vancouver for the final wild card spot, but the race is tight. Utah did get star forward Dylan Guenther back from injury before the break, and he picked up where he left off with four goals in four games, but Logan Cooley is still working his way back from injury and both goaltenders are questionable to be in the lineup on Saturday.

Backup Connor Ingram is day-to-day due to injury, while starter Karel Vejmelka is day-to-day due to an illness. That leaves the crease to Jaxson Stauber in the short term, which isn’t ideal. Stauber has performed well in a limited role, posting a .925 save percentage in four games, but following Saturday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Kings, Utah will kick off a four-game homestand against the Canucks, and that’s a game they really can’t afford to lose.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Regular Season Points Total: 94.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 99.5

The Canucks begin a five-game road trip, and the first half of a back-to-back, on Saturday, and they’ll do so without goaltender Thatcher Demko, who is once again injured. Demko won’t even be travelling with Vancouver on the road, so he will be evaluated when the team returns home leaving Kevin Lankinen to carry the load after signing a five-year contract on Friday.

However, what’s more troubling is that captain Quinn Hughes was not medically cleared as of Wednesday, and, at this point, it’s unclear whether he’ll be in the lineup this weekend. The Canucks have fallen short of expectations this season, and although they are currently in a playoff spot, it’s going to be tough to hold onto given that they have the third-toughest schedule based on regular season points.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Regular Season Points Total: 104.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 98.5

Vegas has exceeded its preseason expectations year-to-date, and as a result, sportsbooks have adjusted their regular season points total from 98.5 to 104.5. Only six teams have an easier schedule than the Golden Knights, too, which suggests there’s little chance that they fall off down the stretch. Vegas grades out as a top-five offensive team and a top-10 defensive team in all situations and they currently have the second-best power play in the NHL. In other words, the Golden Knights look more like a Stanley Cup contender now than they did coming into the season.

Washington Capitals

Current Regular Season Points Total: 113.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 89.5

There have been several big surprises in the NHL this season, but none bigger than the Washington Capitals. Based on their regular season points total, the Capitals were expected to miss the playoffs more often than not, but after a 36-11-8 start, Washington has the best odds (+105) to win the Presidents’ Trophy and I wouldn’t bet against them. The Capitals have the easiest remaining schedule according to the betting market, as their 27 opponents are projected to finish with an average of 87.1 points.

Of course, all eyes will be on Alex Ovechkin, who continues his quest to break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record. Ovechkin needs just 16 more goals to accomplish the feat. Based on the odds, it’s unlikely that he will do it this season, but it’s certainly not impossible.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Regular Season Points Total: 112.5
Preseason Reg. Season Points Total: 96.5

Winnipeg has also been a big surprise, but maybe we should’ve seen it coming given how good Connor Hellebuyck has been year in and year out. The 31-year-old might not have been able to lead Team USA to victory at the 4 Nations Face-Off, but he was the best goaltender in the tournament overall and it’s been that way for a while. Hellebuyck is a virtual lock to win the Vezina Trophy for the second consecutive season and the third time in his career. With a 39-14-3 record, it’s going to be hard for any of the other Western Conference teams to catch Winnipeg, but unlike Washington, the Jets don’t have an easy schedule.