NHL Stanley Cup betting futures: top 2022-23 sleeper picks

It’s been a tough few years if you’re a sports bettor who likes to take big swings on Stanley Cup futures bets. The 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup after sitting among the top pre-season favorites following a season in which they’d tied an NHL record with 62 wins. The 2020-21 Lightning were obviously favorites again, coming off the Cup win. And the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche were a juggernaut on paper and thus a massive betting favorite in Cup futures.

But don’t let those recent results discourage you. The 2018-19 St. Louis Blues went from last place and a midseason coaching change to winning it all. Few had faith that the 2017-18 Washington Capitals would go all the way. The 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins and 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings were bad enough to require coaching changes in-season, too, and went on to win the Cup.

In other words: while the alpha-dog favorites have taken home the chalice in recent years, that doesn’t mean (relative) long shots can’t surprise us. A team seemingly goes on an unexpectedly deep run every season. Who, then, looks like an intriguing sleeper Stanley Cup pick based on the current PointsBet futures odds?

Here are some bets I like at the moment. Keep in mind: I am not saying these teams are my Cup favorites. I’m saying I like the picks because the odds provide strong value relative to what I believe the teams’ ceilings are.

New York Rangers, +1800

Following a season in which they finished with 110 points, boasted the Vezina Trophy winner in Igor Shesterkin and reached the Eastern Conference Final, the Blueshirts have the…eighth-best Stanley Cup odds? The Vegas Golden Knights, coming off a playoff miss and losing Max Pacioretty (trade) and Robin Lehner (injury), currently have better odds than the Rangers.

So, yes, the Rangers look like a value play at +1800. From Shesterkin to defensemen Adam Fox and Jacob Trouba to forwards Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, the core remains squarely in its collective prime, and the Rangers’ young generation has potential to ascend. Defensemen K’Andre Miller, Braden Schneider and Nils Lundkvist should only get better, while the ‘Kid Line’ of Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko showed intriguing promise in the playoffs. To top it off, UFA signing Vincent Trocheck is an upgrade over Ryan Strome as the No. 2 center or at worst a suitable replacement. If the Rangers can improve their play driving, they can seriously contend for a championship in 2022-23.

Minnesota Wild, +2000

It’s natural to assume the Wild missed an opportunity in 2021-22. That season was, after all, the final window for contention before the buyout money for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter blew up the team’s cap situation. Wild GM Bill Guerin predictably had to absorb a body blow to start the offseason, forced to trade 85-point scorer and RFA Kevin Fiala rather than try to fit him under the cap. Minny got an excellent return from the L.A. Kings in Brock Faber and a first-round pick used to select Liam Ohgren, but the win-now roster was weakened in the short term.

Or so it appears. The Wild are fresh off a franchise-record 113 points and, while the loss of Fiala hurts, a full season of ascendant star forward Matthew Boldy offsets it, while prospect Marco Rossi could make a major impact of his own as a scoring-line center if he makes the team out of camp. Any squad built around superstar Kirill Kaprizov as its engine needs to be taken seriously a contender, and the Wild have Marc-Andre Fleury re-signed and locked in as their No. 1 goaltender. They’re a deep team that consistently does a strong job limiting opponents’ scoring chance quality – largely thanks to Jonas Brodin maturing into one of the sport’s best shutdown defensemen.

So is it possible the Wild regress without Fiala? Sure. But progression is also in their range out of outcomes, buyouts and all.

Calgary Flames, +2200

If I’m ignoring odds: I like the Edmonton Oilers to win the Pacific Division and make their best run at the Cup since 2005-06. But the hype has shifted their betting line all the way to +1400 at PointsBet, making them the sixth-ranked Cup favorite. Everything has to go right at that price, so I don’t love them as a futures bet.

The Flames, on the other hand? They have that stink on them following a turbulent summer in which they became the first team in NHL history to lose two 100-point scorers in one offseason after Johnny Gaudreau signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Matthew Tkachuk went to the Florida Panthers in arguably the biggest trade this century.

Yeah, but no one expected the quality of return GM Brad Treliving brought back to the Flames. He replaced one 115-point left winger with another, acquiring Jonathan Huberdeau in the deal with Florida, and while there’s no substituting Tkachuk, Calgary did land one of the NHL’s best all-around defensemen in MacKenzie Weegar. The Flames were a powerhouse last season and, while they scored plenty, their greatest strength is their play driving and defense under coach Darryl Sutter. They’re still a stingy team, built for playoff-style hockey, they have a new superstar in Huberdeau, and their D-corps is extremely deep now with Weegar joining Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin, Oliver Kylington, Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov. I absolutely love them at +2200, the 10^th-best championship odds.

Los Angeles Kings, +2500

I’ve been saying this for a couple offseasons now: I firmly believe Kings GM Rob Blake is learning from his former teammate turned Colorado Avalanche executive Joe Sakic and following a similar path. Like Sakic, Blake spent his first couple seasons dismantling, trading away veterans, accumulating draft picks. Like Sakic, Blake then entered a period of extremely conservative offseason behavior, making very few major additions, securing future cap space, piling up additional prospects. Like Sakic, Blake then decided he had built a critical mass of prospects and, last summer, began to act aggressively. He added Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson to the forward group in 2021 and traded for Fiala this year. If the Kings start to see legitimate ascension from youngsters such as Quinton Byfield, Arthur Kaliyev and perhaps Alex Turcotte up front, they could suddenly become one of the deeper teams in the league at forward. On defense, they have a potential true difference maker on the way in Brandt Clarke. He could contend for the Calder Trophy whenever he sticks in the NHL.

If we factor in that the Kings already made big strides last year, returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2018, and project some improvement from their young generation, they could make noise in the Pacific. Their goaltending duo of aging Jonathan Quick and underachieving Cal Petersen leaves a lot to be desired, though.

New York Islanders, +3000

We just know GM Lou Lamoriello is up to something. The Isles have been far too quiet. When the coiled snake finally does strike – possibly with a Nazem Kadri signing – we know those +3000 Cup odds will change, so now is the time to make your bet.

But why consider the Isles after a playoff miss? Because last season was simply all kinds of weird. They had virtually the same team that made the final four in the 2020 and 2021 postseasons but started 2021-22 on a 13-game road trip to account for the construction of their new arena and also had to play 50 games in 99 days to close out the year because COVID-19 forced so many early-season postponements.

They’re still a deep if unexciting team at forward, they got excellent progression on ‘D’ from Noah Dobson last season, they have a dynamite goaltending tandem in Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, and they should have systemic continuity moving from coach Barry Trotz to his longtime acolyte Lane Lambert. They could bounce back significantly this season.

Vancouver Canucks, +4500

The Canucks were 32-15-10 from the moment Bruce Boudreau took over as head coach last season. That’s .649 hockey. It feels sustainable for a group loaded with high-end talent, especially on the offensive side. Quinn Hughes is one of the game’s most promising puck-movers on ‘D.’ Elias Pettersson looked like his budding-star self again during a torrid second half, and J.T. Miller exploded for 99 points, meaning he’ll either continue bringing a lethal power forward presence or, if he’s traded, return some impactful assets to a team ready to compete in the present. Thatcher Demko is arguably a top five-goaltender in the league right now to boot.

The Canucks also made some intriguing additions in KHL star Andrei Kuzmenko and UFA middle-six winger Ilya Mikheyev while, so far, not losing any crucial contributors from their 2021-22 lineup. Given how wide open the Pacific seems to be every season, it’s no coincidence that I have three teams from that division on my list of favorite futures bets.

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