‘Own rental’ or trade bait? Five pending UFAs who will force tough decisions approaching the deadline

Credit: Jake Guentzel (© Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

With less than two months until the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline March 8, we’re delivering at least one deadline-focused story every day at Daily Faceoff.

Today, we look at potential “swing players,” pending UFAs on teams that are hanging around the playoff bubble. Will they stay as “own rentals” or get moved to the bona fide contenders?

2024 NHL Trade Deadline Countdown: 50 days

Parity sure has changed the game. We live in a hockey world in which an eighth-seeded Florida Panthers team can squeeze into the playoffs by a single point, knock out the winningest regular-season team in NHL history in Round 1 and make it to the Stanley Cup Final. This season, 26 of 32 teams are in playoff spots or within six points of one. The idea that every team has a chance has never rung truer.

It’s therefore increasingly difficult for teams to make annual decisions on their pending UFAs approaching the trade deadline. Is it wise to trade away an expiring star if it could cost you the chance to be this year’s Panthers? Are some bubble teams better off holding those players as “own rentals”? On the other hand, the Panthers are the exception, not the norm. Most lower seeds get knocked out in Round 1. Is it worth getting nothing for a valuable asset just to bow out by late April?

Here’s a look at five pending UFAs on bubble teams who will force their GMs to make difficult decisions in the coming weeks.

Alexandre Carrier, Nashville Predators

The case to keep him: The pesky Preds currently hold down the first Wildcard spot in the Western Conference. Carrier plays two and a half minutes a game on the penalty kill and sits in the 91^st percentile in shots blocked per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. He forms a non-nonsense third pairing with Jeremy Lauzon. No Preds defenseman has a lower share of on-ice team shots and scoring chances against then Carrier.

The case to trade him: Carrier’s value had plummeted during an injury-plagued 2022-23 season. It has rebounded nicely in 2023-24, and teams are willing to pay premiums for mobile right-shot defensemen with shutdown qualities. With Dante Fabbro available to occupy Carrier’s spot on the third pair, should GM Barry Trotz sell high-ish on Carrier?

Marc-Andre Fleury, Minnesota Wild

The case to keep him: The Wild have tumbled in the West but their deficit isn’t quite insurmountable at nine points with a game in hand. Their goaltending is capable of carrying them when hot. Fleury has kept the Wild in many games this season even at 39 years old. His 0.35 goals saved above average per 60 at 5-on-5 places him in the top third of the league, ahead of Vezina Trophy candidates Thatcher Demko and Connor Ingram. With Filip Gustavsson struggling this season, the Wild might need ‘Flower’ more than they did a year ago.

The case to trade him: The Wild are alive in the playoff hunt, but not by much. Seriously. Their odds are down to three percent, and now they’ve lost captain Jared Spurgeon for the season. Fleury just passed Patrick Roy for second all-time in wins. He’s checked every item off his career bucket list. It’s possible he retires after this season, so it would be nice for GM Bill Guerin to give one of the most beloved players in NHL history one last ride on a true contender. More importantly: Fleury is playing well enough to fetch a strong return from a contender desperate for help in net, be it the Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils or someone else. It’s time for the Wild to hand the crease to Gustavsson and top prospect Jesper Wallstedt.

Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins

The case to keep him: The Pens had clear intent to contend and give Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang another shot at glory when GM Kyle Dubas made aggressive moves in the offseason, including trading for Erik Karlsson and Reilly Smith and signing Ryan Graves. If you’re all-in, you need to keep pushing, even if you’re on the playoff bubble. Crosby has played at an MVP level this season. You can’t take away his longtime left winger in the middle of a playoff push, can you?

The case to trade him: Guentzel arguably has the most trade value of any potentially available player this winter. He’s a proven playoff monster, owning the sixth-highest goals per game mark in playoff history among players with at least 50 games played. First-round pick? Top prospect? Useful NHLer? Yeah, Guentzel can return all three in a trade. What helps the Pens more: potentially limping into the playoffs as a low seed or setting themselves up for the future with a tasty haul? It’s a difficult decision given the recent history of underdog teams going on surprising runs, but the Pens haven’t been one of them. They haven’t won a playoff series in six years.

Max Pacioretty, Washington Capitals

The case to keep him: The Caps refuse to go away in the Metro race despite getting underwhelming performances from almost all their star players this season and owning a minus-21 goal differential. Pacioretty, 35, is just working his way back from consecutive Achilles tears, so his trade value isn’t nearly what it was a couple years ago. If he isn’t going to bring a significant return, the upside of holding him might outweigh the downside. Once he has 15 or 20 games under his belt, he might start looking more like the player who had 91 points in his past 92 games entering this season. It’s also worth noting he owns a full no-movement clause.

The case to trade him: The deadline is still more than six weeks away. It’s possible (a) Pacioretty finds his groove well before then and (b) Washington sags in the playoff picture. There’s still time for him to boost his trade value and make it worthwhile to move him. Washington’s Stanley Cup window closed a few seasons ago, so GM Brian MacLellan has to lay a foundation for the future.

Nick Seeler, Philadelphia Flyers

The case to keep him: Aren’t the Flyers rebuilding under new GM Danny Briere? Not according to the standings. They just keep winning under coach John Tortorella. They hold down second in the packed Metro Division. Seeler, one of the toughest all-round blueliners in the game and a shot-blocking machine, is an important part of this team’s culture, forming a physical second pair with Sean Walker, earning serious bang for buck on a cap hit barely north of the league minimum of $775,000.

The case to trade him: The Flyers have been a great story in 2023-24, but they still aren’t a talent-rich franchise right now. We shouldn’t kid ourselves. It’s entirely possible they hit the skids in the second half. Their underlying numbers in terms of scoring-chance generation and suppression reflect a bubble team at best. Goaltender Carter Hart has been a big reason for their success. So if Briere zooms out and thinks about his team’s long-term plan: where does 30-year-old Seeler fit in? His sandpapery game will be coveted by contenders and could even attract an overpay. Is this the ideal window to cash out? Seeler has expressed a desire to stay with the team. Could the Flyers trade him and hope he re-signs in the summer? It’s always a riskier play than it seems, as there’s no telling if a player’s experience as a rental on a new team changes his thinking.

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