Projected NHL Standings as of Oct. 29
Much has changed since the puck dropped for the 2024-25 regular season on Oct. 4, prompting updates to my projected standings.
Projected Atlantic Division Standings
Before the season, four teams were priced at 5/1 or lower to win the Atlantic Division, but it now appears to be a three-horse race due to the struggles of the Boston Bruins, who are now at 7/1 odds. Currently, the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers hold first place, but they’ve played more games, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have emerged as a serious contender after a strong start.
| Team | Points | Most Points | Last Place | Division | Playoffs | Stanley Cup |
| Panthers | 102 | 3% | 0% | 33% | 89% | 6% |
| Lightning | 102 | 3% | 0% | 31% | 88% | 6% |
| Maple Leafs | 100 | 2% | 0% | 22% | 82% | 5% |
| Bruins | 94 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 59% | 2% |
| Senators | 92 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 44% | 2% |
| Sabres | 88 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 26% | 1% |
| Red Wings | 82 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| Canadiens | 76 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
The Toronto Maple Leafs are still in the mix, but with four losses in their last six games, their +333 odds don’t provide enough value for betting. Tampa Bay looks like the best bet to win the division, but after making a poor bet on the Bruins to finish first, I may have to admit defeat rather than take a new position I’m not confident in.
Projected Central Division Standings
The Winnipeg Jets just suffered their first loss of the season after winning eight straight games, leaving them only two points ahead of the Dallas Stars and four points ahead of the Minnesota Wild. According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, the Jets rank as the worst team in the division, sitting 29th in expected goal percentage and struggling to control shots.
| Central | Points | Most Points | Last Place | Division | Playoffs | Stanley Cup |
| Stars | 110 | 23% | 0% | 59% | 99% | 11% |
| Jets | 104 | 5% | 0% | 20% | 91% | 7% |
| Wild | 101 | 3% | 0% | 13% | 87% | 5% |
| Avalanche | 96 | 1% | 0% | 5% | 67% | 3% |
| Predators | 95 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 61% | 2% |
| Blues | 86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18% | 0% |
| Utah | 86 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 17% | 0% |
| Blackhawks | 76 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
For these reasons, I don’t see the Jets as favorites for the Central Division, and the betting market agrees. I placed a bet on Dallas to finish first before the season started, which I’m pleased with, but given how strong the Minnesota Wild look, they could be worth considering at 7/1 odds at Sports Interaction.
Projected Metropolitan Division Standings
With New Jersey in first place currently, it might come as a surprise that they have the third-best odds (+450) to win the Metropolitan Division. However, the Devils have played more games than any other team in the league and have the worst points percentage of the top four teams. In fact, the Devils are just five points ahead of the fifth-place Columbus Blue Jackets despite playing four more games.
| Team | Points | Most Points | Last Place | Division | Playoffs | Stanley Cup |
| Rangers | 111 | 24% | 0% | 45% | 99% | 10% |
| Hurricanes | 110 | 22% | 0% | 42% | 99% | 11% |
| Devils | 103 | 4% | 0% | 10% | 91% | 5% |
| Capitals | 97 | 1% | 0% | 3% | 73% | 3% |
| Islanders | 87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 0% |
| Flyers | 82 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| Penguins | 79 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| Blue Jackets | 79 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
New Jersey shouldn’t have been favored over the Rangers to win the division. While the Devils remain in contention, they appear overvalued. Jacob Markstrom has underperformed, ranking 67th out of 70 goaltenders in goals saved above expected according to Evolving Hockey, whereas Rangers’ goalie Igor Shesterkin is a frontrunner for the Vezina Trophy. Additionally, Carolina, New York, and Washington lead the division in even-strength expected goals percentage, suggesting a tight race between New York and Carolina. I’m content with my position on the Rangers.
Projected Pacific Division Standings
The biggest story in the Pacific Division is Oilers captain Connor McDavid’s injury. According to Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff, best-case scenario for Edmonton is a multi-week absence for McDavid, similar to the recent eight-game absence of Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov. McDavid has never missed more than seven games in a season, making this a significant setback for the Oilers. Without McDavid, Edmonton has an all-time record of 20-26-10.
| Team | Points | Most Points | Last Place | Division | Playoffs | Stanley Cup |
| VGK | 102 | 3% | 0% | 37% | 89% | 6% |
| VAN | 101 | 3% | 0% | 32% | 86% | 5% |
| EDM | 96 | 1% | 0% | 14% | 70% | 3% |
| LAK | 96 | 1% | 0% | 14% | 70% | 3% |
| SEA | 88 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 30% | 1% |
| CGY | 83 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 12% | 0% |
| ANA | 76 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| SJS | 61 | 0% | 74% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
With only four wins in their first 10 games, the Oilers aren’t in as much trouble as they were at this point last season, but the injury adds to concerns. Vegas and Vancouver were already projected to finish ahead of Edmonton, but between the 6-1 loss to Columbus and the injury to McDavid, the Oilers have fallen closer to the Kings’ level. Of course, I might be underestimating Los Angeles, which has gotten off to a 5-2-2 start, but Edmonton is still a safe bet to make the playoffs. Calgary and Seattle don’t appear to have much staying power, and the division is still looking weak with the likes of Anaheim and San Jose still among the worst teams in the league.