Ranking all the 2023 playoff teams on their likelihood of being contenders next season
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are over, and the Vegas Golden Knights have their first Stanley Cup in franchise history, winning it in dominant fashion over the Florida Panthers. While Vegas is quite happy with their result, Florida may be in the most pain due to how close they were to their first championship.
With that comes the final edition of the playoff loser rankings, which looks at how likely they are to bounce back next season. However, we have to rephrase it a bit this time because, for the first time, we have a team that certainly isn’t a “playoff loser” (unless the Golden Knights were secretly trying to tank for Connor Bedard this year and just failed miserably).
So, where do the Panthers and the Golden Knights rank among the 14 teams we’ve already ranked at Daily Faceoff? Have some other teams moved around in the wake of offseason moves? There shouldn’t be too many surprises at this point, but let’s dive in.
1. Vegas Golden Knights
I know, quite the hot take, right? I have the Stanley Cup champions at the top of the list to win next year’s Stanley Cup, it’s quite the bold stance. I almost didn’t because I believe that much in the Colorado Avalanche, but there was one thing that changed my mind, and that was the likely roster turnover, or in the case of Vegas, the lack of likely roster turnover.
They only have Ivan Barbashev and Adin Hill on their way out from the main group, although it’s likely that they’ll bring back one of their UFA goalies in Hill, Laurent Brossoit, and Jonathan Quick to join Logan Thompson next season, so they won’t have to follow in the footsteps of their past couple off-seasons and trade a big piece like Max Pacioretty or Marc-Andre Fleury to clear cap space – unless they’re going to do their thing and bring in another big name player.
Part of the reasoning for placing them at No. 1 is just how decisively they picked apart their competition in the latter half of the playoffs. This group really hit its stride and figured out the best way that they could win, partially in thanks to their tremendous depth, and with most of it returning, it’s easy to see how they might be back here next season, especially since they aren’t afraid to cut loose their weakest links.
2-6. Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, Tampa Bay Lightning, New Jersey Devils
There isn’t any change in the rankings after Vegas for a while, as none of these teams has made enough changes yet to drastically overhaul their roster and change my opinion on their future. I alluded to a big reason for Vegas taking the top spot being how much of their roster they can bring back, which is what gives them the edge over an Avalanche team that possibly has a more talented group, but not a lot of depth surrounding them, and they’re losing a few more pieces this offseason to free agency as well. In the long run, I’d take the Avalanche’s core over the Golden Knights’, but I wouldn’t rule out Vegas being the better team next season.
Meanwhile, at the bottom of this group, the Devils have started to alleviate some of my biggest concerns with their group, mostly just being how much could change with them, particularly at the top end of the lineup and how much more money they commit to an already loaded blueline. Well, they’ve locked up one of their big name forwards in Jesper Bratt, have avoided the $10 million qualifying offer with Timo Meier by going for arbitration, and they also dealt Damon Severson instead of committing money and term for him to take away potential ice time from Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. It’s definitely looking good, but I’m still not quite ready to move them into the top five just yet.
7. Florida Panthers
The Panthers being this low on the list for a Cup Final team isn’t a slight on them, but just speaks to how many really good teams there are ahead of them. That said, the future is bright with this group, and this was supposed to be the season where they took a step back from last year, so that speaks miles about what this group is capable of in the long term.
The Panthers also have a great opportunity to overhaul their roster for the better and fix their biggest weakness in the Final against Vegas – their depth. They’ll have more than $10 million in cap space to work with, and possibly more if they can find a way to capitalize on Sergei Bobrovsky’s raised stock and move off some of his contract, and there aren’t really any names out of their free agents that jump out of the page as needing substantial chunks of that cap space outside of Radko Gudas.
They have a chance to overhaul their roster and create more depth for a group that has already shown the capability of going on a deep run, so the potential to get even better is definitely there. However, with cap space comes opportunity to make some bad signings as well, so that uncertainty is what keeps them in seventh for now, along with the long-term question mark in net assuming Bobrovsky falls back down to earth a bit.
8. Carolina Hurricanes
The Canes fall behind the team that eliminated not specifically for that reason, but because the Panthers currently have what they are truly lacking in finishing talent. They’ll have the cap space to get that, and maybe they use it to do what they tried to do last year by bringing in Max Pacioretty for free, but everyone that knows something seems to think that they will be out trying to fill that hole. The Golden Knights had a similar problem holding them back and Jack Eichel put them over the top for the win, so imagine what a pure scorer can do to a consistently relentless Canes team.
9. Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs become the first team to move up among teams that were already on this list, passing the New York Rangers mostly because things in Leafland have calmed down in the wake of Kyle Dubas’ firing. The uncertainty still exists, but it doesn’t seem like there’s going to be scorched earth in Toronto, otherwise more things would have happened by now or be close to happening. Right now, rumors seem to indicate that they’re more likely to move on from the likes of Michael Bunting, Alex Kerfoot, and Justin Holl than the core of this team, which is the smart move even if that group’s lack of playoff success is well-documented and criticized.
10. New York Rangers
The Rangers have hired a new coach in Peter Laviolette, but that’s not the reason why they drop behind the Leafs this time around. Sure, a coach with higher upside could have maybe kept them there, but the fact that the Leafs seem to be sticking with their core group means that I’m comparing these teams based on that core group, and I’ll take the Leafs over the Rangers, especially when you factor in age. The Rangers’ top four forwards signed for next season are all going to be at least 30 when the season starts, while John Tavares is the only one older than 27 on the Leafs. Even if the Rangers can bring back Vladimir Tarasenko or Patrick Kane, Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko just haven’t developed the way many thought they would, so they just don’t have the young talent to insulate this group when their window closes – which will happen a lot quicker than it will for the Leafs.
11. Los Angeles Kings
The Kings also nearly rose up a spot in the rankings due to their recent moves to start their offseason, as they’ve cleared up a bit more cap space by moving on from Cal Petersen and Sean Walker. However, the uncertainty that comes with all that cap space, the fact that they could make good or bad moves with it, and the lack of star power are what keep them from passing the Rangers for now. Bringing back Vladislav Gavrikov is a start, especially only for two seasons and not committing too much term to him, but I’ll see what bigger moves they have in store before I’m sold on them taking that next step.
Beyond that, there aren’t really any changes to the list, or any updates to any of the Seattle Kraken, Minnesota Wild, Boston Bruins, Winnipeg Jets, and New York Islanders beyond what I already said on this list after the first and second round.