Re-signing Dylan Larkin was a must for Red Wings, no matter the cost

Credit: © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

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Before passing judgment on the term and dollar figures for Dylan Larkin’s new contract extension with the Detroit Red Wings: consider a few other important numbers first.

305: That’s the number of career games in a Detroit sweater for the active co-leaders, Filip Hronek and Tyler Bertuzzi, if you remove Larkin from the equation. He sits at 563.

0: That’s the number of combined postseason games in a Red Wings sweater for every player on the team aside from Larkin, the lone player remaining who competed in Detroit’s last playoff series seven years ago.

213: That’s the gap between Larkin’s career points in a Red Wings sweater, 415, and second-place Bertuzzi among active players.

So when we evaluate the eight-year contract at an $8.7 million AAV he signed Wednesday, we have to consider the context. Is Larkin ever going to be a first-team all-star or league MVP? It’s highly unlikely. He’s already 26, he has never received a year-end all-star or Hart Trophy vote and he sits 54^th in NHL scoring across his eight seasons.

But he’s blindingly fast. He competes in all situations. He has a 5-on-5 relative shot attempt share higher than his team average in seven of his eight seasons. He’s solidly above average on faceoffs. He plays more than 20 minutes per game over the past five seasons. He’s the closest thing the franchise has to a star forward. That’s why it was wise to resist any urge to trade him as a pending UFA, and that’s why it was worth paying him No. 1 center money. Even if he can’t be the superstar who singlehandedly ushers Detroit into Stanley Cup contention during the Yzerplan, Larkin can be the anchor, the solid veteran captain who helps mentor the next generation.

Every time I ponder that concept, I’m reminded of a conversation I had with a GM several years ago shortly before the trade deadline when his team was in a seller position and one of his star veteran forwards was rumored to be on the move. When I asked if it was going to happen, he chuckled and quipped, “Hey…I know we’re rebuilding, but someone has to stay behind and help the young guys, right?” The thought stuck with me. If you scorch the Earth during a rebuild and remove every last piece of the veteran core, who is left to teach the next wave of prospects how to win?

Excluding their back-to-back humiliations at the hands of the Ottawa Senators this week, the Wings have shown significant progress this season, their fourth since franchise legend Steven Yzerman took the reins from Ken Holland to become their GM. Detroit’s .533 points percentage is easily its best since 2015-16, the final season of the 25-year playoff streak. An extremely busy offseason in which Yzerman added goaltender Ville Husso, forwards David Perron, Andrew Copp and Dominik Kubalik and defenseman Ben Chiarot, among others, has made the team more competitive, as expected. Jake Walman, acquired in a deadline trade for Nick Leddy last season, has been a revelation on defense when paired with No. 1 Moritz Seider.

It wasn’t a huge surprise to see the support pieces make the team harder to play against. But none of Yzerman’s additions had a high ceiling except perhaps Husso. If we’re scanning the roster for prime-year veterans in their mid-20s, playing at their peak levels while still young enough to have good years left? With Jakub Vrana’s long-term future clouded as he battles his way back from reported substance abuse issues, It’s just Larkin and Filip Hronek, albeit you could consider Husso the equivalent of that category at 28 given goaltenders age slower.

If you remove Larkin from the team via trade or letting him walk as a UFA, there’s no prime-year star to bridge the gap from the older veterans to the next generation. And that’s important, because the next generation is exciting. Seider is poised to compete for Norris Trophies over the next decade and a half. Lucas Raymond has tremendous potential as a hyper-intelligent playmaking forward. Jonatan Berggren looks ready to be an impact NHL scorer. Simon Edvinsson’s upside as a top-pair shutdown defenseman is limitless. Sebastian Cossa belongs in the top tier of long-term goaltending prospects worldwide.

And then there’s Marco Kasper, of course, the next big thing at center for Detroit, another disciplined, brainy forward who projects to be usable in all situations.

But Kasper isn’t here yet. Nor is Edvinsson or Cossa or other promising future Red Wings such as Carter Mazur. Detroit has an enviable collection of prospects on the way yet is trying to be a competitive, playoff hopeful team in the present. Yzerman’s moves last summer signalled a shift to that mentality. That’s why a player like Larkin is so important. He is a proven play driver who makes a positive impact in both zones. He’s the leader that can keep the team competitive until the next wave arrives.

To drill deeper than that: while Detroit has an impressive prospect pool, it doesn’t have that slam-dunk No. 1 center. Not even close. Even Kasper projects as more of an all-around guy than someone who will regularly populate the NHL’s scoring leaderboard. If you subtract Larkin from the present and near future, Detroit has a black hole at center ice.

Larkin qualifies as an important re-signing purely on merit, sure. CapFriendly points to the eight-year extensions for Bo Horvat, Tomas Hertl and Mika Zibanejad as good comparables. But I would argue it was particularly prudent to retain Larkin at any cost more because of what he represents – even if he had wanted close to $10 million a year. He is the conduit connecting one generation to the next, the captain who wants to be a career Red Wing like his general manager was, and the key to maintaining Detroit’s momentum as an ascending team. If you remove him? This team tumbles backward into its rebuild for several more seasons.

Sometimes, you have to pay top dollar for security. It was a smart spend, Mr. Yzerman.

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Re-signing Dylan Larkin was a must for Red Wings, no matter the cost

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