An audit of our bold predictions for the 2024-25 NHL season

Apr 15, 2025, 12:15 EDT

Credit: Jan 19, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson (48) looks on during warm-up before the game against the New York Rangers at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

Making bold predictions ahead of an NHL season is a lot like throwing darts at your local watering hole on a Tuesday night. There will be the rare bullseye, a few hits here and there, and some shots that just make you look plain drunk.

That was especially the case in the 2024-25 season, where the NHL remains the least predictable of the four major North American pro sports. Who saw the Winnipeg Jets winning the Presidents’ Trophy? Or the Rangers, Bruins and Red Wings all missing the playoffs for the first time in league history? With a few days left in the regular season, it’s time to go back and audit our preseason predictions and add up all of the scores:

1. The Buffalo Sabres will end the longest playoff drought in North American pro sports at 13 years. Buffalo has arguably the best top-four defense corps in the East and young stars up front. A proud hockey market comes alive again.

Verdict: Great start. Clearly, I was a believer in Buffalo. I thought at the very least they would be in the mix until the final days and definitely did not see them floundering at the bottom of the East for the bulk of the season. Big changes incoming in Buffalo.

2. With that, the Tampa Bay Lightning will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2017. The cyclical nature of the salary cap world can’t be outrun or avoided; all incredible runs come to an end at some point. There’s bound to be a redistribution of points in the Atlantic Division this season.

Verdict: When you’re asked to be bold, this is it. Tampa had trended in the wrong direction over the last two seasons, Andrei Vasilevskiy looked human again, and if you’re adding teams to the mix, someone had to come out.

3. J.T. Miller will become the first Vancouver Canuck since Ryan Kesler to capture the Selke Trophy. Money Miller quote to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre: “I don’t want my ceiling to be based on points. I may play an even better 200-foot game this year and have 20 less points. That’s not a failure to me. I want to be a really good 200-foot player in the league.” Winner’s mindset.

Verdict: Selke? The only way I could have been more wrong about this would’ve been to pick Miller to win the Lady Byng.

4. Low key Must-Watch Game of the Year: Anaheim at Philadelphia on Saturday, January 11. Best of luck, Cutter Gauthier, hope the shield fits in your carry-on.

Verdict: That was fun in a Philadelphia way, but it didn’t carry as much of the league-wide hype. Solid rookie season for Gauthier, who earned an All-Rookie team vote from me with his 20-goal campaign.

5. Barry Trotz will take home the Jim Gregory GM of the Year Award, becoming the first person to ever win the Jack Adams (2016, 2019) and GM of the Year. Nashville is in the Stanley Cup contender conversation again thanks to Trotz.

Verdict: To quote the judge at the end of Billy Madison: “I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.” In short order, Trotz is on the hot seat, as the Preds not only finished in 30th place but have one of the oldest rosters in the league that is also locked in long-term with major dollars committed. No easy way out now.

6. Connor McDavid will become the third fastest player to 1,000 points in NHL history. He’s 18 away, and he’ll do it by Oct. 22 against Carolina, passing Mike Bossy for third all-time (652 games). McDavid will take home his fourth Hart Trophy. Someday, we’re going to look back on McDavid’s greatness and marvel at the idea that he only won three Harts during this stretch.

Verdict: To be honest, this didn’t feel that bold at the time. But sources say 18 points in the first seven games of the year is a lot. McDavid is a point away form turning in one of the quietest 100-point seasons in league history.

7. Detroit’s Derek Lalonde will be the first coach fired. Feels like there are already signs of friction between Lalonde and Red Wings management. And the temperature is rising in Detroit to make the playoffs.

Verdict: Close. Lalonde was the fourth coach fired, replaced on Boxing Day by Todd McLellan. Jim Montgomery (Nov. 19), Drew Bannister (Nov. 24) and Luke Richardson (Dec. 5) were a month ahead of him.

8. The Great Eight will need eight goals in 2025-26, the final year of his contract, to break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record of 893. Alex Ovechkin will score 34 this season, three more than last year.

Verdict: First one ever that I’m glad to be wrong about? That Alex Ovechkin scored 42 goals in 61 games as a 39-year-old to break the all-time record will go down as one of the most ridiculous feats in the game’s history. That’s 11 more than he had in 18 more games the season prior. Most mortals don’t age in reverse, but Ovechkin is part of hockey immortality now.

9. The Washington Capitals will return to the playoffs on the back of the NHL’s most improved defense. Matt Roy was the signing of the summer, a true underrated pure defender. Add in Jakob Chychrun and it was a big summer for the Caps, who also have the best value goalie tandem in the league.

Verdict: Wow, I actually got one right!

10. Brock Nelson, Yanni Gourde and Cam Fowler will be the hottest 2025 Trade Deadline commodities. Deadline Day is Friday, March 7.

Verdict: Holy smokes, two in a row. Nelson, Gourde and Fowler were all traded prior to the March 7 deadline. And turns out, Fowler should have been more in-demand.

11. Utah Hockey Club will qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs in their first year. GM Bill Armstrong was right: No team is better prepared for the present and future. Their highest-priced player makes $8.15 million. They’ve got draft picks (assets) to trade. They have more prospects than they can sign. And players are going to clamor to live in Salt Lake City.

Verdict: I was a year premature in this prediction. Absolutely love what Utah is building. The fact that they hung in the race despite missing two of their top four defensemen for five months is a testament to the talent in their organization. It’s upward from here – and it won’t be long.

12. New Jersey’s Sheldon Keefe will take home the 2025 Jack Adams Award as coach of the year. The Devils are going to win the Metropolitan Division, armed with a vastly improved back end that’s the perfect blend of young and old. The only thing they need is health.

Verdict: They did not get the health. Jack Hughes underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in March. Dougie Hamilton missed a chunk of the season again. The Devils definitely improved, and Keefe turned out to be a great hire, but he didn’t do the best coaching job in his own division.

13. After a proper period of mourning, the Lady Byng Trophy will be renamed in memory of Johnny (and Matthew) Gaudreau. Lady Byng had a great 100-year run. John won the Byng in 2017 and was a true gentleman of the game. It would also be appropriate for on-ice officials to vote on the award.

Verdict: I’d love to see this come to fruition to permanently honor the Gaudreaus. The USHL recently named an award after John and Matthew Gaudreau, which their parents, Guy and Jane, presented in Sioux Falls over the weekend.

14. The Columbus Blue Jackets will win the 2025 Draft Lottery. It’s the only consolation prize on a brutal year, but hope and help is on the way. Bananas that the Blue Jackets have never won the Lottery.

Verdict: Everything about this prediction was wrong. First, it was an incredibly poor choice of words, and I am truly sorry for connecting John in any way. I understand and own the visceral reaction this caused. Second, I picked the wrong team. I underestimated the Blue Jackets in just about every way, and they authored a memorable story this season, carrying an unimaginable tragedy and a boatload of injuries to have a shot at the playoffs in the final week of the season.

15. Team USA will win the 4 Nations Face-Off on home ice in Boston on Feb. 20. MVP: Connor Hellebuyck. Yes, the first best-on-best international hockey in 11 years will be as delicious as it sounds, and just the appetizer one year ahead of the 2026 Olympics. The tournament runs Feb. 12-20 in Montreal and Boston in lieu of All-Star Weekend.

Verdict: One. Shot. Away. In the end, it was the best player in the world beating the best goaltender in the world in overtime in Boston. The entire tournament was electric.

16. Playoff teams: ~~Boston~~, ~~Buffalo~~, Carolina, Florida, New Jersey, ~~New York Rangers~~, Toronto, Washington / Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton, ~~Nashville~~, ~~Vancouver~~, Vegas, ~~Utah~~, Winnipeg.

Verdict: 10 out of 16. Five in each Conference. Not good.

17. The Philadelphia Flyers will have more points this season than the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins are going to need to play with more pace in order to have a shot at the playoffs.

Verdict: This one is still possible. It highlights how difficult the road back to the postseason is for the Penguins, despite all of the preseason optimism.

18. Bet365 Stone Cold Mortal Lock: Matvei Michkov over 47.5 points. The Flyers’ prized rookie is a certified junkyard dog, a player who competes like a bastard, something that will make coach John Tortorella fall in love. Michkov isn’t ready to shoulder an entire organization yet, but he’s the real deal.

Verdict: What a wild ride for Michkov, a true rollercoaster under John Tortorella. He’s already bagged 60 points and the shackles appear to have been removed with nine points in seven games since Torts was fired.

19. But Montreal Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson will take home the Calder Trophy for rookie of the year. Hutson and Michkov will be neck-and-neck for points this season, but Hutson will dazzle with his vision, edge work and creativity. (The Habs are going to be more competitive than you realize.)

Verdict: Boom. I took a lot of heat for this one in October!

20. The NHL and NHL Players’ Association will agree to make neck protection mandatory starting with the 2025-26 season. Player comfort shouldn’t be prioritized over player safety.

Verdict: This hasn’t happened yet but is trending in the right direction with CBA talks underway and GMs receiving an impassioned plea from Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald at the GM Meetings in March.

21. After a two-year hiatus, Colorado’s Cale Makar will win the Norris Trophy. His career-best 90-point season kind of got lost in the shuffle behind a spectacular year from Quinn Hughes. It’s incredible that Makar is well north of a career point-per-game player in the playoffs, too. The Avalanche are one of the NHL’s biggest wild cards this season – dependent on Gabriel Landeskog and Val Nichushkin to return and produce.

Verdict: This wasn’t that bold, but looking back on the first quarter to half of the season, it was certainly trending toward a repeat for Hughes before his injury. Makar is the NHL’s first 30-goal scorer on the back end since Mike Green in 2008-09 – and Green finished runner-up for the Norris that year.

22. Auston Matthews goals: 61. He’ll narrowly edge McDavid for the Rocket Richard.

Verdict: This has been a strange and difficult year for Matthews, marred by injury. He just hasn’t appeared to be nearly as dangerous, likely as a result of his chronic injury.

23. Mitch Marner will headline the crop of 2025 Free Agents. The Leafs will be moving in a different direction next offseason, forced to finally act on foundation-shaking changes.

Verdict: Nodding yes like Jack Nicholson in the Anger Management GIF.

24. The New York Rangers will make Igor Shesterkin the highest-paid goaltender in NHL history at $11.25 million per season. That will surpass Carey Price’s previous record of $10.5 million. Devoting 12 percent of next season’s salary cap to a goaltender who will be on the bench for 33 percent of the season is tough to swallow, but it’s a necessary evil. Can’t win without goaltending.

Verdict: Alright, I was slightly off in the AAV, it came in at $11.5 million. But I’m counting that as a win.

25. Jason Robertson will bounce back with his second-career 100-point season as the model-of-consistency Dallas Stars win the Central Division. Robertson quietly dipped from 109 points to 80 last year. Just getting back north of 40 goals will make up for a bunch of those points.

Verdict: This pick was in no-man’s land for a huge chunk of the year! Robertson was left off Team USA for the 4 Nations Face-Off. Since the rosters were announced on Dec. 4, he is ninth in league scoring with 30 (!) goals and 66 points in 57 games. He’ll fall short of 100 points though.

26. The Seattle Kraken will bump Ron Francis to president of hockey operations and promote Jason Botterill to GM. Now in Year 4, there’s quietly pressure building for the Kraken to progress. They know they need to make hay in the market before the NBA inevitably returns.

Verdict: Not out of the realm of possibility after yet another disappointing season. Keep an eye on the Kraken.

27. Regular season regressions: Carolina, Vancouver, Winnipeg. All three are still playoff teams, but it won’t go as swimmingly this season.

Verdict: As bad as that Winnipeg pick looks, they still aren’t far off from the 111 points they had last year. Carolina had a 10-point-ish regression and the Canucks fell from division winner to out of the playoffs.

28. The NHL and NHL Players’ Association will sign a Collective Bargaining Agreement extension before the Stanley Cup playoffs begin, achieving labor peace through 2032. Expect the NHL to green light a formal expansion process shortly after that – with the league returning to Arizona within a five-year period.

Verdict: The two sides are talking but do not appear to be close to a new CBA at this point in time. In fact, it seems a little unlikely that it will be done before the Stanley Cup Final, as commissioner Gary Bettman hoped it might before the season.

29. No. 1 Pick Projections: Connor Bedard will hit 100 points in his sophomore season, while Macklin Celebrini arrives in the NHL with 57. Both the Blackhawks and Sharks will enjoy 15+ point improvements in the standings.

Verdict: This was a tough season for Bedard, who seems to need both a mental and physical reset in the summer. He was outpaced by teammate Frank Nazar as Chicago’s most dynamic up-and-comer down the stretch of this season.

30. Amazon Prime’s Coast to Coast on Thursday nights will become appointment streaming in Canada. It’s hockey’s version of NFL Red Zone, whipping around from game-to-game, and it’s the perfect league-wide complement on a traditional busy night of the schedule.

Verdict: Coast to Coast gained great traction this season and should be even bigger in Year 2.

31. On the back of a nasty back end, the Boston Bruins will win the East and advance to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in seven years. It’s a defense no one will like playing against. They’re giants. And size on the blueline wins in the playoffs. Charlie McAvoy is the smallest at 6-foot-1.

Verdict: Come on, now we’re just piling on here.

32. The Edmonton Oilers will end Canada’s Stanley Cup drought at 32 years. They will repeat what the Florida Panthers accomplished, becoming the second straight team to lose in the Cup Final the year prior and then vanquish their loss the following year. It’s a matter of when and not if – McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are not going to be denied.

Verdict: Not feeling great about my preseason Cup pick, as Edmonton appears to be more vulnerable in the first round than at any point over their last three matchups against the Kings. Missing Mattias Ekholm, depending on how long he is out, is a significant and material impact to the Oilers’ Cup chances. Buckle up!

Enjoy the playoffs.

_____

POST SPONSORED BY bet365

_____

An audit of our bold predictions for the 2024-25 NHL season

Recently by Frank Seravalli