How ‘No consensus No. 1’ NHL Draft classes have played out in the cap era
For the first time since 2022, things won’t be so simple in the moments leading up to the NHL Draft’s No. 1 selection.
There was no screwing up the Connor Bedard Draft for the Chicago Blackhawks in 2023. Same goes for the San Jose Sharks with Macklin Celebrini in 2024; GM Mike Grier even pre-announced he was taking Celebrini. But in the hours before the the New York Islanders and new GM Mathieu Darche step to the podium June 27 in Los Angeles, will they hesitate?
Dynamic defenseman Matthew Schaefer sits No. 1 on most Draft boards, including Daily Faceoff’s, but he also hasn’t played since the World Junior Championship in December, and he’s not quite a unanimous No. 1 pick. If the Islanders want more instant gratification, they could opt for a forward. Michael Misa is perceived by most to be the best pure offensive talent in the Draft class, and then there’s the James Hagens decision: he was ranked No. 1 for the early part of the 2025 Draft season, and he’s the local boy who grew up an Isles fan.
So while Schaefer is the safest bet, it doesn’t feel like we have a slam-dunk pick to open the Draft this season. Years that lack consensus No. 1 choices always lead to fascinating Sliding Door scenarios: sometimes the teams at the top get the order right, and sometimes they make mistakes that have ripple effects for years to come.
Let’s break down the results of the “non-consensus” Draft Classes in the salary-cap era.
Excluded are the years I deemed consensus No. 1 classes based on the scouting intel and publication rankings at the time: 2005 (Sidney Crosby), 2006 (Erik Johnson), 2007 (Patrick Kane), 2008 (Steven Stamkos), 2009 (John Tavares), 2015 (Connor McDavid), 2016 (Auston Matthews), 2018 (Rasmus Dahlin), 2019 (Jack Hughes), 2020 (Alexis Lafreniere), 2021 (Owen Power), 2023 (Bedard) and 2024 (Celebrini).
Also, we’ll look solely at the players who were perceived to be in contention for No. 1 overall status in their given years. So we won’t use revisionist history to put Nikita Kucherov atop the 2011 class, for instance, as he wasn’t considered anywhere near the top three or four picks in the moment.
2010: Hall vs. Seguin
‘Taylor vs. Tyler’ made for such easy branding. Taylor Hall was the dynamic two-time Memorial Cup champion with the Windsor Spitfires, a speedy, well-rounded winger. Tyler Seguin was more of a pure goal-scorer, perhaps not quite as NHL ready but arguably possessing a higher ceiling.
THE RESULT
1. Edmonton Oilers select Taylor Hall
2. Boston Bruins select Tyler Seguin
Somehow, both teams did fine and squandered their picks by trading them before they peaked as players. Hall played in a dark era during which the Oilers simply couldn’t figure out how to win. He flashed plenty of potential and even hit the 80-point mark once but struggled to stay healthy. After the infamous one-for-one trade sending him to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson in 2016, Hall put it all together for a magical 2017-18 in which he buried 39 goals and tallied 93 points, almost singlehandedly carrying a mediocre Devils team to the playoffs and capturing the Hart Trophy. Seguin, meanwhile, won a Stanley Cup as a rookie but didn’t become a perennial all-star until the Bruins, believing he lacked maturity, shipped him to the Dallas Stars in summer 2014 as part of the ill-fated Loui Eriksson blockbuster. Seguin instantly became a star-caliber player in Dallas, forming a potent duo with Jamie Benn, but Seguin has struggled to say healthy since his late 20s.
REVISED ORDER
1. Seguin
2. Hall
It’s close. I give Seguin the slight edge given he’s been more consistent in his career, scoring 30 or more goals six times and 20 or more goals 10 times, but Hall peaked higher.
2011: Nugent-Hopkins vs. Landeskog vs. Huberdeau vs. Larsson
The 2011 class lacked a can’t-miss superstar prospect and thus presented a theoretical opportunity for teams to prioritize need. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jonathan Huberdeau brought the playmaking, Gabriel Landeskog the rugged leadership and Adam Larsson the minute-munching and size on defense.
THE RESULT
1. Edmonton Oilers select Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2. Colorado Avalanche select Gabriel Landeskog
3. Florida Panthers select Jonathan Huberdeau
4. New Jersey Devils select Adam Larsson
No team fared terribly. Nugent-Hopkins didn’t become a bona fide star, but he didn’t need to be once the Oilers landed Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid in 2014 and 2015. Nugent-Hopkins has settled in as a versatile, intelligent forward who can play in all situations, at wing or center, up and down the lineup. Landeskog became one of the youngest players ever to earn an NHL captaincy, and his mature, pro-ready game made him a strong pick pretty much from Day 1. Huberdeau peaked in supernova form as one of the sport’s truly elite scorers with Florida, tallying 115 points in 2021-22, but he has flopped as a Calgary Flame and will go down as the other side of the league-changing 2022 Matthew Tkachuk trade. Larsson was rushed far too quickly to the NHL and took a while to settle in as a reliable blueline bruiser, but he did net New Jersey Hall in a trade, and Larsson has found his game with the Seattle Kraken.
REVISED ORDER
1. Landeskog
2. Nugent-Hopkins
3. Huberdeau
4. Larsson
Huberdeau would’ve jumped to No. 2 or maybe even No. 1 a few years back, but his game slipping and Nugent-Hopkins’ more versatile play give ‘Nuge’ the edge, while Landeskog, despite missing three years between 2022 and 2025 with a knee injury, gets the top spot because he’s a Stanley Cup champ and one of the best leaders of his generation.
2012: Yakupov vs. Murray
With the Oilers making a third consecutive No. 1 overall pick, Nail Yakupov offered the tantalizing offensive upside, whereas Ryan Murray brought the steady puck-moving game that could make him a horse who logged 25 minutes a night. Having already drafted forwards first overall in 2010 and 2011, would Edmonton prioritize need this time?
THE RESULT
1. Edmonton Oilers select Nail Yakupov
2. Columbus Blue Jackets select Ryan Murray
The Oilers went with (supposedly) the best player available, and while Yakupov flashed some skill in the lockout-abbreviated 2012-13 campaign, he was a disaster from that point onward, showing little regard for own-zone play. He only lasted four seasons in Edmonton and six overall in the NHL, averaging just 15 goals and 32 points per 82 games. Murray didn’t fare much better, his career derailed by constant injuries. He topped 65 games once in a season and never blossomed into anything resembling a star. The closest he came was in 2018-19, when he played more than 21 minutes a night and was roughly a half-point-per-game player but suffered a season-ending injury in Game 56 of his campaign.
REVISED ORDER
1. Murray
2. Yakupov
Woof. The top end of the 2012 class was legendarily bad; picks 3 and 4 were Alex Galchenyuk and Griffin Reinhart. The best players selected that year are the best goalies of this generation, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck, but the rules of this exercise state that we can only choose from the players who were actually in contention for No. 1.
2013: MacKinnon vs. Jones
Including this Draft class will incite some kneejerk reactions, but it’s revisionist history to claim superstar Nathan MacKinnon was in a tier of his own in 2013. I was with The Hockey News at the time, and our scouts’ intel led us (infamously) to rank Seth Jones No. 1 and put him on the cover of our Draft Preview magazine. We were wrong, of course, but it’s a reminder that MacKinnon and Jones were perceived to be in a tight battle before MacKinnon’s Halifax Mooseheads beat Jones’ Portland Winterhawks in the Memorial Cup Final.
THE RESULT
1. Colorado Avalanche select Nathan MacKinnon
2. Florida Panthers select Aleksander Barkov
3. Tampa Bay Lightning select Jonathan Drouin
4. Nashville Predators select Seth Jones
MacKinnon won the Calder Trophy as a rookie, but after four seasons he bordered on bust material. From 2017-18 onward, however, he’s been an unstoppable stallion of a player, one of this century’s best, a league MVP, Stanley Cup champion and future first-ballot Hall of Famer. Jones was perceived to be an emerging star and future Norris Trophy winner in his early days, particularly after Nashville traded him to the Columbus Blue Jackets, but he’s settled in as more of an underachieving top-pair blueliner relative to his sublime skating talent. That said, the Panthers sure have unlocked the best of Jones since acquiring him from the Chicago Blackhawks before the 2025 Trade Deadline.
I’ll make no revision to how Colorado and Florida used the top two picks. MacKinnon was the correct No. 1, Barkov was the proper No. 2, and both teams were wise in hindsight to pass on Jones.
2014: Ekblad vs. Reinhart vs. Draisaitl vs. Bennett
I remember us agonizing over our top four in the THN rankings leading up to the 2014 Draft. Was man-child Aaron Ekblad, the first defenseman to earn exceptional status in major junior, the top pick? Tenacious Sam Bennett earned Doug Gilmour comparisons and legit No. 1 consideration, while Sam Reinhart’s intelligent all-round game had appeal and Draisaitl’s big-man skills at center gave him a considerable ceiling.
THE RESULT
1. Florida Panthers select Aaron Ekblad
2. Buffalo Sabres select Sam Reinhart
3. Edmonton Oilers select Leon Draisaitl
4. Calgary Flames select Sam Bennett
Draisaitl is an all-time great offensive talent, one of the most dominant playoff scorers in NHL history, with a decent chance to win a second Hart Trophy when the 2024-25 vote is announced next month. Reinhart bloomed somewhat late but has become an elite two-way player, 50-goal scorer and Stanley Cup champ with the Panthers. Ekblad didn’t ascend to consistent star status but has been a reliable top-pair horse when healthy, while Bennett is the type of vicious power forward every team wishes it had.
REVISED ORDER
1. Draisaitl
2. Reinhart
3. Ekblad
4. Bennett
It’s not close between Draisaitl and the other three, while Reinhart deserves his own tier, too. Ekblad and Bennett are good rather than great players who have battled injuries in their careers. They aren’t busts in a vacuum – only when compared to what was available when they were picked. Ekblad was chosen over Draisaitl; Bennett went earlier than the likes of William Nylander and David Pastrnak.
2017: Hischier vs. Patrick
Considering picks 3 and 4 were, ahem, Miro Heiskanen and Cale Makar, it’s wild to look back and see that the debate leading up to the 2017 Draft was between Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick, two centers who were perceived as solid NHL prospects rather than future superstars even then.
THE RESULT
1. New Jersey Devils select Nico Hischier
2. Philadelphia Flyers select Nolan Patrick
Hischier has become pretty much exactly what he was scouted to be: an intelligent, skilled, defensively responsible center who will land in Selke Trophy conversations for years to come. He’s not a superstar but was never projected to be. Patrick’s NHL story is a tragic one. He was diagnosed with a migraine disorder in 2019, which limited him to just 222 career games and forced him to retire at 25 years old.
No revision to the top two picks here. Patrick had hoped to become a heart-and-soul forward in the vein of fellow Winnipegger Jonathan Toews but never had a chance to blossom.
2022: Slafkovsky vs. Wright
Remember the buzz in the days, hours and even minutes leading up to coach Martin St. Louis making the pick at the Bell Centre? Shane Wright, a well-rounded coach’s pet of a player, was supposedly the Habs’ preferred choice at No. 1, but whispers emerged of them wavering on the decision and leaning toward the hulking power forward Juraj Slafkovsky, and…
THE RESULT:
1. Montreal Canadiens select Juraj Slafkovsky
2. New Jersey Devils select Simon Nemec
3. Arizona Coyotes (now Utah Mammoth) select Logan Cooley
4. Seattle Kraken select Shane Wright
Shocked screams exploded among the crowd when the Habs announced the selection of Slafkovsky over Wright. Like Jones in 2013, Wright slid all the way to fourth. Only three years later, it’s too early to declare a winner, but we can at least say the Habs have made a fine pick so far. Slafkovsky hasn’t delivered a wire-to-wire consistent season yet, but he’s shown flashes of dominance on Montreal’s top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield the past couple years. Wright didn’t stick as a full-time NHLer until this past season, but he flashed his trademark goal-scorer’s release in 2024-25, sniping 19 goals in 79 games while playing only 14:04 per night. It’s not too late for him to overtake Slafkovsky in the hindsight ranking.
_____
POST SPONSORED BY bet365
_____