Revisiting Tage Thompson: Were the signs of greatness there from the start?
Think you know sports? PointsBet Canada is live in Ontario!
_____
If you followed Tage Thompson around the time he was drafted, there was some serious intrigue.
Here was this massive kid with a big smile that seemed to really turn things when it mattered. Big players can be typecast – he was 6-foot-5 and still kind of lanky at the time. He had the reach, but was he going to come in to fight? To poke pucks away? Big players aren’t typically electric goal-scorers.
Thankfully, we have the wonderful world of hindsight. And seven seasons after getting drafted in the first round by St. Louis, Thompson finds himself on the heels of Connor McDavid for the goal-scoring race, and could join elite company as a 60-goal scorer in the National Hockey League.
What in the world?
The now 6-foot-7, 218-pound monster has been virtually indestructible this season, recording 26 goals and 50 points in 32 games with a Buffalo Sabres team that’s going to need one heck of a second half to make the playoffs. And now, he’s just two goals behind McDavid for the scoring lead, beating out the likes of Leon Draisaitl, Jason Robertson, David Pastrnak and even Auston Matthews, who broke the 60-goal barrier in 2021-22.
This all feels out of nowhere. He had a major breakout season with 38 goals and 68 points last year, but he had just 35 points in his first 145 NHL games. So after catching everyone’s attention in 2021-22, the focus shifted to maintaining that and giving the Sabres the true scoring star they had missed for most of the decade.
Tage Thompson is a human highlight reel 🎬 pic.twitter.com/vNdJNH8DGp
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) December 20, 2022But, looking back, there may have been some reason to believe that, once everything clicked, Thompson could become one of hockey’s most mystifying stars.
As a late 1997-born prospect, Thompson had to wait until the 2016 draft, which was a good thing. He had a ho-hum season with the U-18 team, finishing 14th in scoring. No other full-time forward had fewer points than Thompson’s 26, with Clayton Keller falling three points shy despite playing 49 fewer games. He then exploded with a 32-point freshman season at the University of Connecticut, quickly raising him into the first-round conversation.
Thompson was ultimately taken 26th overall by St. Louis, but he had to prove it wasn’t a fluke. And, all these years later, it wasn’t like he was surrounded by a powerhouse. Of the 23 skaters that year, 258 NHL games have been played – Thompson can claim 255 of them. The other three came courtesy of Maxim Letunov, who had a goal in a minor stint with the San Jose Sharks before eventually landing back in the KHL.
Thompson was 6-foot-5 and 185 pounds in his draft year, but still hadn’t figured out how to use that size to his advantage. In 2016, Sportsnet’s Sam Cosentino said “Some have questioned 13 of 14 goals scored on the power play. Has impressed with his defensive play.” NHL.com’s Mike Morreale wrote that Thompson “has good size and scoring prowess, but needs time to mature and bulk up before playing at the next level.” How does two inches and north of 30 pounds sound?
Perhaps Steve Kournianos’ scouting report aged the best, saying “he knows he’s got a size advantage and he exploits it.”
Thompson then recorded an identical 32-point season, ramping his goal count from 14 to 19. He always seemed to know how to score – his goal and assist counts were usually close, with the goals taking the lead through various levels. He had a strong World Junior Championship appearance in Canada in 2017 and even turned pro, playing a minor role with the Chicago Wolves.
I had a television show in the Greater Toronto Area during university, with a big focus on prospects. While only some old episodes exist online, the scouting report section for our draft preview doesn’t. One of my notes says “if he could just use his size from time to time, he’d be unstoppable
For those who didn’t see Lindros at his peak, his 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame, mixed with his elite skills, made him one of the most dangerous players in the league. Nobody knew how to stop the behemoth of a forward, and then he’d deke the daylight out of you. As many social media users have shown, it feels like every goal Thompson scores at this point is a highlight-reel goal. He’s showing a level of creativity that seemingly wasn’t displayed during his college days.
One NHL scout recounted a report he made after watching him in college to me recently: “I don’t think he shows it enough, but he’s got the skill of a small dangler. And if he can harness that, and use his size to his advantage, there might be something unique here.”
Many public scouting reports said that Thompson had the potential to become a top-six player in the vein of Jamie Benn. Defensively, everyone seemed to agree he struggled. But not only has that improved with NHL coaches, he isn’t out there to shut guys down, anyways. He’s got the scoring part figured out, and that’s what he’s paid to do.
Here are a few more: Jeff Cox, a USHL assistant GM and a staple of the amateur hockey scene, called Thompson’s ceiling “extremely high” ahead of the 2016 draft. Sportsnet’s Gare Joyce took the more cautious approach, saying scouts had “mixed feelings” regarding Thompson’s transition to the next level.
Those mixed feelings can be attributed to the obvious: was he going to bring more than size to the table? His skating was excellent, and he could definitely shoot, but outskating college players is a whole different animal. But his size definitely gave him more looks than others with similar skillsets, but I still don’t think anyone
Just talking to scouts that followed that 2016 draft, many had high hopes in Thompson. Some even used the word “future star” when describing their thoughts on him from back in the day. Is there a bit of revisionist history? Maybe, but there were high hopes for him when he came into the league after just two college seasons, only for him to fall flat. His NHL future looked uncertain, and when he was moved to Buffalo in a trade that sent Ryan O’Reilly to the Blues in 2018, Thompson’s inclusion almost felt like an afterthought.
The consensus? The star qualities were there, but scouts were cautious. He’s a unique figure. We haven’t seen a big man dominate like this since, maybe, Eric Lindros in his prime? You don’t see human iterations of the Empire State Building turning into skilled scoring stars all too often. It seemed like some scouts wanted to go all-in, but the precedent just wasn’t there. But now Thompson is carving his own path, and he’s one of the best players in the world right now.
There’s only so much you can watch and evaluate of a 17/18-year-old prospect before they get drafted. You’re looking at projectables – someone can dominate against kids, but what translates to the NHL? If they’re a scorer, and they’re not in a scoring role, do they bring something else to the table? Again, hindsight, 20/20, yadda yadda, but Thompson is nailing all the boxes right now.
And while nobody likely expected Thompson to be THIS good, there were quite a few believers. And now he’s shining bright.