Scheifele, Hellebuyck extensions the final nail on missed opportunity for Jets to move on from underperforming core
“We had no pushback.”
Those four words were uttered several times by Winnipeg Jets head coach Rick Bowness a little more than five months ago. He wasn’t exactly pleased with the Jets performance after their 4-1 loss in Game 5 of the first round against the Vegas Golden Knights. The game was over before the second period finished when Vegas had a 4-0 lead, and even if the Jets outshot the Golden Knights 30-25, 16 of those came in the final period when Vegas was sitting back and closing the game out.
Bowness was not only calling out the team’s performance in that game and their performance that season with those comments. He clearly had a problem with the main core of this group, and he wasn’t wrong. Not only did they underperform when it mattered in that 2022-23 season, it’s been an issue that’s plagued them since 2018.
The 2017-18 season saw the Jets surprise a lot of the hockey world, not only going from a consistent non-playoff team to a competitive one, but becoming one of the best teams in the league overnight. They had the second-best record in the NHL with a .695 points percentage, and they would have led any other division but were stuck behind the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Nashville Predators in the Central. Winnipeg would go on to get the franchise’s first playoff series win, and go all the way to the Western Conference Final before losing to another up-and-coming team – coincidentally also the Golden Knights, who beat the Jets in five games.
It seemed like the start of a new competitive era in Winnipeg. Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers were a young, dynamic forward group, Jacob Trouba and Josh Morrissey looked to be the foundation for a strong blueline, Connor Hellebuyck looked like a reliably elite goaltender, and it was led by talented veteran players like Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien and Bryan Little. But progress and development is never linear, and the Jets couldn’t have been a better example of that.
2019 also saw the Jets play exceptionally well in the regular season, and while they finished second in the Central yet again with a .604 points percentage, they were out in the first round. That’s not inherently bad, but it was the damage their core took in the 2019 offseason that really made things take a turn for the worse.
The Jets’ deep right side on defense was gutted that summer, with Tyler Myers departing in free agency, Trouba requesting a trade, and Byfuglien finding himself suspended by the team all season after getting surgery on his ankle, a situation that resulted in a filed grievance and a terminated contract the following year. With those defenders gone, Morrissey was thrust into a role he wasn’t ready for and saw significant struggles all the way until last season. Little played just seven more games as a Jet before injury issues ended his career. Laine had the first of what would be several inconsistent seasons, and a rough contract dispute led to him eventually getting dealt for Pierre-Luc Dubois, who at least made for a solid addition to Winnipeg’s core.
In the four seasons after that nightmare offseason, the Jets were 18th in points percentage at .562, missed the playoffs once and only won one playoff series in that span: a sweep of the Edmonton Oilers in 2021 before getting swept themselves in the second round by the Montreal Canadiens.
The Jets were in that mediocre position no one wants to be in, a team that was too bad to be a Cup contender, but too good to get a high enough draft pick to add some elite talent. In fact, only two Winnipeg draft picks have gotten into any NHL action in the past five drafts: 2019 20th-overall pick Ville Heinola with 35 NHL games, and 2020 10th-overall pick Cole Perfetti with 69 games. A combined 11 goals and 48 points.
That meant there was no support coming for the remaining core of Scheifele, Connor, Wheeler, Dubois, Ehlers, Morrissey and Hellebuyck, who were already struggling at this point in the Jets’ timeline. From 2019 to 2023, none of the skaters provided consistent value at both ends of the ice, with Scheifele, Connor, Wheeler and Morrissey in particular being horrid defensively and at driving play. Sure, they put up points, but many teams have proven that your elite need talent needs to do more than that to be contenders. If the Jets made the playoffs, it was likely because Hellebuyck stood on his head to get them there, with the one season in that span seeing him fall below a .915 save percentage being the 2021-22 season where they missed the playoffs.
It was quite clear that this group wasn’t going to be enough to win a Cup.
Which is why that fateful night in late April seemed like a blessing in disguise. Bowness’ harsh comments made it quite apparent that changes needed to be made, and with Dubois set to be a restricted free agent in the 2023 offseason, Scheifele and Hellebuyck heading for unrestricted free agency in 2024, and all three seemingly in the trade rumor mill, it was the perfect time to start over and put together a new core.
Things started off in that direction. A week before free agency, the Jets dealt Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings, although the return seemed to be more focused on helping them now than netting them assets for the future. And then just as free agency began, they bought out Wheeler.
But after that, nothing really happened. Of Winnipeg’s other free agent departures, only Kevin Stenlund, Sam Gagner and Saku Manalanen played more than half of the season with the Jets. Of their UFA signings, only Laurent Brossoit seems to have cracked the NHL roster this season, and he was also on the Jets from 2018 to 2021. Their only trade after the Dubois deal was an exchange of minor leaguers with a combined one NHL game.
Despite the quiet offseason, the Jets still had two more bullets in the chamber. They weren’t going to get as big of a haul for Scheifele and Hellebuyck at the trade deadline as they would have in the offseason, but the assets Winnipeg could get in those deals might help them turn over a new leaf.
Instead, they locked both players up to seven-year contracts with $8.5 million cap hits. They aren’t inherently bad deals, and both players are worth that money at this point – and likely even more in Hellebuyck’s case. But as both players enter their age-30 seasons, those deals will be paying for the start of a decline.
For the most part, the Jets are keeping the same core group, despite the universe making it so difficult to do so that it would have made more sense not to. While GM Kevin Cheveldayoff and Co. seemed to be prepared to move on from this group, it’s quite apparent the intention was always to keep the band together. Except this band has looked more like a one-hit wonder than one with a lasting legacy, and now the core that has already underwhelmed and, in their coach’s words, had no pushback comes into this season even weaker and barely looking like a playoff team. Sure, there’s more depth on the roster, but unless Alex Iafallo and Gabriel Vilardi are the answers to their prayers, it’s going to be more of the same in Winnipeg and possibly get even worse.
It shouldn’t be a complete surprise that the Jets are hanging on to whatever life they have left. While there’s no indication that Cheveldayoff is on the hot seat, he’s now in his 13th season as the Jets GM with very little to show for his time in Winnipeg. Going into a rebuild likely means that he eventually loses his job, so he’ll want to keep this group together to give off the impression that he’s doing good work.
But beyond that, the 2023 offseason was a missed opportunity. It was a chance to start moving on from a core that stalled after launch and proved that it wasn’t the right group to win with. Instead, they head into the season with a group that at best sneaks into the playoffs like last season (requiring another amazing season from Hellebuyck) and doesn’t have much upside at this point with the youngest member of this group in Connor turning 27 in December.
Maybe I’m being pessimistic. After all, they can always rebuild a few seasons later. And maybe Vilardi, Heinola and Perfetti have the potential to join this group and give it the boost it needs. Or maybe the group finally unlocks that next level and they prove to be the core they needed to be (they even showed brief signs of it last season). But I wouldn’t hold my breath if I was a Jets fan. Unless Cheveldayoff has a big splash up his sleeve, be ready for a few more seasons of mediocrity before they finally pull the plug and then endure another rebuild.
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