Sharks’ Timo Meier won’t come cheap at the Trade Deadline, but he’s worth it
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With just over six weeks remaining until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’re bringing you one deadline-focused story each day at Daily Faceoff.
Today we’re going to focus on San Jose Sharks winger Timo Meier, who was No. 4 on our latest Trade Targets board.
2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 43 Days
TIMO MEIER
Left Winger, San Jose Sharks
Shoots: Left
Age: 26
Height: 6’0″ | 210 lbs.
Cap Hit: $6 million AAV
Term: Pending RFA, due $10 million qualifying offer
Trade Clauses: No restrictions
Stats: 46 GP, 26 goals, 20 assists, 46 points, 20:04 avg TOI
Career: 7th season (all with San Jose), 440 GP, 149 goals, 310 points, 16:53 avg TOI
Archetype and Ideal Role
Shooter, First Line
Meier checked in at No. 10 on the list of pure Shooters as part of Daily Faceoff’s Archetype Ranking series. With 208 shots on goal this year, Meier trails only David Pastrnak in shot volume. Ideally, Meier would skate on a line with a strong distributor and also a net-front presence, both of whom allow him to load up and rip the puck.
Scouting Report
Meier is a prototypical scoring winger built for success in today’s NHL. Aside from his shot, the first thing you notice about him is his strong hockey sense with and without the puck. He knows where to be on the ice to be a threat and gets there with regularity. Without the puck, he can find soft ice to be a shot threat from distance just as easily as he can get to the scoring area, win space and be a deflection target.
With the puck, Meier exhibits good patience and makes plays in all areas of the offensive zone. He has strong vision, can protect the puck well and utilizes his soft hands to get his shot off quickly or make plays to teammates, although his first instinct is always to shoot.
His shot? It’s excellent. And it’s his best weapon. He has a quick release, pinpoint accuracy and it has weight. He can beat goaltenders consistently from distance. Meier also has notable hand-eye coordination and can deflect incoming shots and quickly corral pucks in-tight to take advantage of second chances.
Perhaps most importantly, Meier is a driver of play – which is relatively rare for wingers. He oozes tenacity in the offensive zone. He uses his thick frame and strong skating style to win pucks and create. Teammates get better and produce more playing with Meier.
Buyer Beware
There aren’t many holes in Meier’s game. He’s paid to post points and he’s certainly productive, but he is an above average defender in his own end. Defensively, Meier is guilty of overcommitting at times, which can draw him out of position. He can also get puck-focused and lose assignments. But these flaws are not a result of effort or commitment.
Meier is a strong skater, but teams believe his pace is just average. He combines his strength and body positioning to transport the puck, enter the zone and make things happen – instead of breaking away with his feet to create time and space. And while shooting is certainly his strength, shooting that often and from distance tends to kill plays or quickly change possession when he misses the net or the goalie makes a stop.
The biggest ‘Buyer Beware’ point is solely Meier’s contract. He is being paid $10 million in salary this season, which means his qualifying offer for next year as a restricted free agent is also $10 million. In other words, if the acquiring team does not offer Meier a one-year, $10 million deal (or negotiate another acceptable long-term deal that he signs), he will automatically hit the market and become an unrestricted free agent. We saw this play out last year with Matthew Tkachuk in Calgary, where he refused to re-sign and forced his way to Florida. So what is Meier’s next deal worth? That’s the calculus any team interested will have to examine.
Contract Comparables
While Meier is playing at a point-per-game pace this season, after his 75-point campaign last year, it’s probably safe to say the he land somewhere between $8-9 million in AAV on a long-term deal based on the market.
Filip Forsberg
Left Wing, Nashville Predators
8 years x $8.5 million = $68 million
Signed on July 9, 2022 by David Poile
Age at signing: 27
Forsberg knocked his contract year out of the park with 42 goals and 42 assists for 82 points. Meier is on track to exceed that goal total. They’re slightly different players (Forsberg was 8th-ranked Power Forward; Meier is 10th ranked Shooter) but both are scoring wingers capable of driving play. Forsberg received a full ‘no-trade’ clause for the first six years of his deal. He also has better career goals-per-game and points-per-game numbers.
J.T. Miller
Winger/Center, Vancouver Canucks
7 years x $8 million = $56 million
Signed on Sept. 2, 2022 by Patrik Allvin
Age at signing: 29 (kicks in at age 30)
Just past the midway point of this season, Meier is already closing in on Miller’s 32 goals scored in his outlier 99-point season. The big difference between these two as comps is the age. Meier will be 27 when the puck drops on his next contract; Miller will be 30.
Potential Fits
- New York Rangers: We reported on Tuesday that Meier has risen to the top of the Rangers’ list. He’d be a fantastic fit, adding some heft to New York’s top six. You can practically envision the magic he would make with an elite distributor like Artemi Panarin. And Meier can comfortably play the right side. The Rangers have the cap space, pick arsenal and prospects to pull it off.
- New Jersey Devils: Plug two Swiss compatriots together in Nico Hischier and Meier and the taste would be as sweet as fine Switzerland chocolate. The fit is nice, but the need isn’t as strong for New Jersey, as they have Jesper Bratt and Ondrej Palat flanking Hischier right now. Not bad. They also need to pay Bratt again this summer, as well as Damon Severson, and money gets tight in a hurry.
- Pittsburgh Penguins: The Penguins are a sneaky, interesting fit. Jason Zucker’s contract is expiring, so they’ll have his money to play with this summer. That’s more than half of Meier. They could use an impact piece in Meier’s age range. They could get the Sharks to take a bad contract (Kasperi Kapanen?) or two back to make the money work this year. And they have mostly their full complement of draft pick capital.
- Tampa Bay Lightning: Adding an elite scorer like Meier when there seems to be little path to do so is something right in mastermind Julien Brisebois’ playbook. Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, P-E Bellmare and Corey Perry are all expiring contracts. The Lightning will need depth help. The biggest issue is assets required. Their next first-round pick isn’t until 2025 (that doesn’t help San Jose) and they aren’t teeming with prospects.
- Winnipeg Jets: The Jets are likely a lower-case fit for Meier, but intriguing nonetheless. Nikolaj Ehlers is back and it’s a little easier to judge the Jets, who have been cruising all season long. They will likely be aggressive at the deadline given their window to contend, and acquiring and re-signing Meier could go a long way to keep that window open with Ehlers and Kyle Connor and Co.
Comparable Trade Return
July 7, 2022
To Ottawa: Alex DeBrincat
To Chicago: 2022 1st Round Pick (No. 7 overall, Kevin Korchinski), 2022 2nd Round Pick (No. 39 overall, Paul Ludwinski), 2024 3rd Round Pick
DeBrincat is really the only recent comparable as someone with a looming, $9 million qualifying offer. Meier stands likely bring back less for a number of reasons: 1) DeBrincat had one year remaining on his contract that paid him a reasonable $6.4 million cap hit before expiration into that qualifying offer; 2) When the Blackhawks made the deal, it was hours before the first round and they knew exactly which pick they were getting at No. 7 overall. Almost any contending team that San Jose will be dealing with will be picking much later in the first round in June. Plus, DeBrincat is three years younger and his qualifying offer is $1 million less expensive.
Summary
Meier is one of the rare, play-driving wingers who can be a difference maker and important addition for any team with a chance to win. Provided that they have the salary cap flexibility to re-sign him long-term, his acquisition cost should be relatively manageable in comparison to top-end rentals and when measured against what he brings to the table.