‘Should six outstanding seasons get a player into the Hockey Hall of Fame?’ Featuring John LeClair
On the lead up to the Hockey Hall of Fame’s announcement of the 2023 Class on Wednesday, June 21, we’ll be profiling eight hopeful candidates. Each player profile will help answer a hard-hitting question about the HHOF and what membership to the game’s most exclusive honor should look like.
Hockey is a punishing sport. The impact of a life spent in an NHL sweater leaves many of its greatest athletes a shadow of themselves sooner than later. Whether through acute injury, wear and tear, or early retirement, even the game’s best rarely sustain an enduring level of elite play.
Bobby Orr. Ken Dryden. Peter Forsberg. These are players so special that their abbreviated careers left no doubts. But what about the rest of the mere mortals? How long does a player need to be a dominant force to be worthy of Hockey Hall of Fame induction? His brilliance largely lost to history, power forward John LeClair will be our poster boy as we kick off the series.
The Narratives 🎙️
- Big Proponent: “A three-time 50-goal scorer, hero of the Habs’ last Cup title, and star of U.S.A.’s landmark World Cup win, LeClair is the only five-time year-end All-Star outside the HHOF.”
- Big Opponent: “LeClair’s run as an elite player was only six full seasons propped up by Eric Lindros, and his two overtime goals and World Cup greatly inflate a solid career.”
The Stats 💻
- NHL Career (1991-2006): 16 seasons — Montreal, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
The High Noon Card 🕛
High Noon rankings are the equivalent of the world golf or tennis rankings — only for hockey. A player’s High Noon answers the question: “Where did they rank at their best in the NHL at their position?”
LeClair’s High Noon rankings reveal two critical things about the Vermont-born sniper:
- He spent a decade as a top 50 forward. This extinguishes the idea that LeClair’s run of relevance was brief.
- He spent a half-decade among the NHL’s top six forwards. This is rarified air. Every eligible forward that spent five years in this dominant stratosphere is in the HHOF.
Why hasn’t anyone noticed LeClair was so good? A simple visual emphasizes his terrible luck when it comes to timing.
Picture the NHL’s scoring climate when LeClair first became a star. The image you should see is Wile E. Coyote falling off a cliff to his certain demise. Then, a parachute!… in the form of a slight offensive bump after the 1994-95 lockout-shortened year. But the parachute’s strings are cut!… it all ends with a cloud of smoke into a bottomless abyss.
Here’s what LeClair’s goal totals look like from 1994-95 to 1999-00 had he played in a neutral scoring setting (i.e., six goals per NHL game, no lockout):
- 45, 49, 52, 59, 49, 44 — a total of 298 goals (50 per year)
What if LeClair had the good fortune of peaking from 1980-81 to 1985-86? This window covers Glenn Anderson‘s best days. Brace yourself.
- 58, 65, 67, 77, 64, 58 — a total of 389 goals (65 per year!)
There wouldn’t be enough aloe in Philadelphia to soothe the necks of the NHL goaltending union from LeClair’s lamp-lighting. He placed 10th, 5th, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, and 7th in goals during the stretch — his goal total second only to Jaromir Jagr by a single goal. He also snagged top-10 finishes in points four times. Total domination.
The PPS Card 📊
The Pidutti Point Share (PPS) system measures a player’s HHOF worthiness in a single comprehensive number. A player’s PPS score is tiered based on the HHOF standard for their position and era.
We’ve established the towering winger’s best years were otherworldly. Remarkably, LeClair’s prime is 15th-best among all post-expansion forwards. 15th! His Peak score in PPS (119) is sandwiched between all-time forces Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg. This alone may make LeClair hockey’s patron saint of being underrated.
Suiting up for only 967 games, his Career score (68) is pedestrian, yet still better than 21 of the 61 post-expansion HHOF forwards. His Pace score (83) is excellent and ranks 18th. All told, his PPS before bonuses is sizzling.
The bonuses? His post-season credentials are a mixed bag. His production (89 points in 154 games) is well off his regular season output. Yet, he is etched in Montreal folklore, two of his four goals that playoffs being overtime winners in the ’93 Cup final. LeClair reached four conference finals with the Flyers, including the ’97 Cup run where he tallied 21 points in 19 games. All told, LeClair scores +10 for playoffs (maximum 30). For Award bonus, he gains just +1, twice garnering MVP votes playing second fiddle to Lindros.
LeClair’s story cannot be told without the 1996 World Cup. In 14 best-on-best international events, it remains the U.S.A.’s lone title. Big John was a force, landing on the all-tournament team. Both LeClair’s and the United States’ standing in the hockey world were launched by the victory. While the 1980 Miracle On Ice inspired millions and created monumental awareness, it was not best-on-best, as there were no North American professionals at Lake Placid. So, 16 years later, U.S.A. was not yet an accredited hockey power. LeClair and company’s comeback over Canada left a stamp on a future American generation. PPS says +10.
Overall, the PPS system loves LeClair. It would take him out for a steak dinner, a romantic comedy, and even spring for buttered popcorn. His PPS score (284) exceeds the standard (235) by 49, the largest gap of any post-expansion player passed over for election.
The Comparisons 🧬
Who a player profiles most similarly to statistically is revealing as it removes any influence from reputation or playing style. Using career length, adjusted scoring, and the core factors of PPS, a player’s top five matches are presented. 1,000 is a perfect match.
LeClair’s closest matches are intriguing. Despite abbreviated careers and limited team success, Kariya and LaFontaine are HHOF members in good standing. Of the two holdovers, Tkachuk gets some passing interest, while Gaborik has zero public momentum. Marchand, hockey’s finest weasel, remains highly underrated, which will surely drain my soul pleading his case for the next decade.
Post-expansion, only 31 snipers have scored 35+ adjusted goals per 82 games (minimum 10 adjusted seasons). As a result, all six of these players exceed the PPS standard (235) as statistically qualified.
We’ll zero in on LeClair’s most similar contemporary, Kariya (PPS: 276). The pair crossed paths at their best, nabbed five year-end All-Star nods at left wing each, had serious injury scares, and were left with unexceptional totals from a lean scoring era. Kariya waited four years for induction. LeClair is now up to 13.
The Answer ⚖️
Should six outstanding seasons get a player into the HHOF?
On Twitter, intentionally lacking context, I posed the question whether scoring at a 50-goal pace for seven years should land a player in the HHOF. The results were a resounding YES (82%).
Over LeClair’s best seven-season stretch, he scored 268 goals in 466 games, a 47-goal pace. The seventh “season” was only 16 games, back surgery proving the only way to slow him down. We know the latter half of this period was a defensive utopia. Adjust for era, and it’s exactly a 50-goal pace.
The above exercise proves the hockey public wants dominant players elected. We’ve established that LeClair was truly dominant, scoring the second-most NHL goals over a six-year period.
The HHOF’s membership features many scoring wingers elected for short bursts of electricity. Adjusted for era, Michel Goulet also had six consecutive 40-goal seasons, never hitting the mark before or after. Cam Neely finished top 10 in goals per game only four times. Steve Shutt was an elite player for just five seasons.
Whether we want to hold the HHOF to a higher standard, six outstanding seasons near the top of the NHL has long been an acceptable path to immortality.
The Verdict 🚦
Lastly, we’ll dismiss some long-held views on LeClair’s candidacy:
- He was a product of Lindros. Yes, LeClair benefitted from Lindros. But in the 96 games The Big E missed during their partnership, LeClair scored at a 46-goal pace — virtually identical to his regular output. This game is a slippery slope. Is Jari Kurri‘s peak as brilliant sans Wayne Gretzky? Why didn’t Mikael Renberg start burying 50 with Lindros?
- LeClair was a one-dimensional sniper. While assigning defensive credit pre-analytics is limited, it’s notable that every LeClair team in his first 12 full NHL seasons were top-eight in fewest goals against. Debuting on a Pat Burns-coached team, he was wired for defense early on. The flaws with plus/minus notwithstanding, LeClair was fifth in the category (+204) over his 16 seasons, trailing only Jagr, Sergei Fedorov, Forsberg, and Lindros.
- LeClair’s career totals are too light. The hockey community misses the plot when using raw counting numbers. LeClair played four years of college hockey, and missed a season and a half to lockouts. We know he starred in a period that decimated career totals. So, why care if he hits the arbitrary and contextless milestones of 1,000 points or 500 goals? Lesser players often hit these marks simply by being mediocre for longer.
LeClair’s case is that of a player possessed, reaching the greatest of heights in an impressive run commanding the sport. His peak years were utterly dominant. His play stayed at a high level for a decade. He checks the oft-cited playoff and international hero boxes. He is unquestionably one of the best candidates on the outside right now. In the next two cycles where quality first-year candidates are scarce, LeClair deserves a long look.
Adjusted Pace, High Noon, PPS System, High Noon & PPS Player Cards, Player Comparison Tool from Adjusted Hockey; All other data from Hockey-Reference.com