Should the Pittsburgh Penguins trade Jake Guentzel?
Last week, Elias Lindholm came off the trade board. Of the names who were near locks to move, he was arguably the top commodity. But if the Pittsburgh Penguins make Jake Guentzel available, he would suddenly become the most impactful asset on the market. He’s sixth all-time in playoff goals per game among players with at least 50 games.
The Pens sit five points out of a playoff spot with two games in hand on the Detroit Red Wings and hold a 60 percent chance of making the postseason. If you’re Kyle Dubas, would you trade Jake Guentzel? On one hand, he could bring a serious haul – first-round pick, prospect, NHL roster player, given that’s the standard established by the Lindholm deal (plus Bo Horvat and Timo Meier last year). On the other, it would signal the end of something in Pittsburgh and might be tough for franchise legends Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang to swallow.
So, Roundtable….what do you do?
MATT LARKIN: (Grabs megaphone) Do it, Kyle. The backwards thing about all this: you’re not doing a disservice to Sid, Geno and Co. by cashing out on Guentzel. I see it as the opposite. As currently constructed, the Pens are neck and neck with the Nashville Predators and Minnesota Wild to win the unofficial gold medal of being Mid. It will be six years this spring since they last won a single playoff series. Crosby, at 36, is special enough, and still playing well enough, that you could reload and construct a team around him designed to ascend when he’s 38. Get a high-end prospect for Guentzel, pick twice in the first round this year and use your first-rounder next year, and maybe you can build a team that actually contends for a championship down the road. Are you really doing Sid a solid by coughing and wheezing your way to first-round defeats or narrow playoff misses every year?
SCOTT MAXWELL: While I agree with Matt’s sentiment, and it’d probably be the smarter option in the long-term outlook, I just don’t see how it helps them try to win a Cup in the final years of this group, which is the team’s objective whether it’s the right one or not. You’d be hard-pressed to find a player who will replace Guentzel’s production and value, even with him needing a new contract, but I think Jeff Carter’s $3.125 million cap hit that’s also coming off the books should more than cover the difference there. Otherwise the only other option in free agency is Sam Reinhart, who might end up costing more even though Guentzel provides more sustainable production, or a 34-year-old Steven Stamkos, which now that I think about it, makes perfect sense for this team’s window. I’d argue Rickard Rakell’s lack of production compared to his salary is the bigger issue, along with Todd Reirden’s performance as the power play coach because the team’s actually been quite solid at even strength, and there’s still plenty of opportunity for the Penguins to sneak into the playoffs and make some noise amidst an Eastern Conference that lacks a true Cup contender without flaws. At the end of the day, it will depend on if Dubas plans on re-signing Guentzel, because if he’s doesn’t then it makes sense to move on, but if they can work out a deal, I’d look into it, because Guentzel is the kind of player that maximizes whatever hope the Pens have of winning a Cup with this group.
MIKE GOULD: It’s a tough equation to balance, but I’ll say yes. The Penguins are going to do their damnedest to stay relevant as long as they have Crosby, Malkin, and Letang in tow, but Kyle Dubas is smart enough to realize that the real inflection point will be after those three are gone. They’ve won their Cups, their window has closed, and they’ll probably have a few opportunities to make some high draft picks in Crosby’s later years. It’s time to start stockpiling so the team can transition as seamlessly as possible into a new core once this one is gone. Guentzel should be able to command a princely sum on the trade market.
STEVEN ELLIS: Dang, Matt. This one’s difficult. But I’m going with sell. Sid has to know this team isn’t winning any time soon with its current crop, and selling high on Guentzel allows them to recoup assets quickly. Why would Guentzel want to come back – especially long-term – knowing this team is headed toward a rebuild? I just don’t love those odds heading into free agency right now. Guentzel doesn’t need to be traded to a contender, either – imagine him playing alongside Connor Bedard in Chicago? Depending on the assets, you could get immediate help quickly and try and salvage the final years of No. 87.
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