The six best performances at the 4 Nations Face-Off according to analytics
Nothing puts a spotlight on a player quite like an international tournament, especially when it’s best-on-best.
The 4 Nations Face-Off has reminded us of that, whether it’s been Sidney Crosby continuing his stellar play at the international stage, Jake Guentzel and Mikael Granlund scoring a few goals for their respective countries, or Connor Hellebuyck continuing to be far-and-away the best goaltender.
While the true spotlight has yet to come, as Thursday’s championship match between Canada and the United States brings much anticipation, there have still been some incredible stories over the past week, and some have gone under the radar. So I decided to look under the hood and dive into the advanced stats from the 4 Nations Face-Off to find some of the best analytical performances in the tournament.
Brady and Matthew Tkachuk vs. Finland
The performance of the Tkachuk brothers in the USA’s opening game against Finland didn’t exactly go under the radar for most fans, as both players had two goals in the 6-1 blowout win. But the hockey world was certainly curious as to how the two would perform in what was their first time together wearing the red, white and blue, and they did not disappoint.
The four combined goals were already an excellent debut for the Tkachuk brothers, especially when U.S. head coach Mike Sullivan opted to put the two on the same line. But on top of that, they had a combined 2.53 expected goals at all strengths in the game (1.32 for Matthew, 1.21 for Brady). To put things in perspective, the rest of the USA team had a combined 1.66 expected goals, and Finland only had 2.71 expected goals themselves, so the Tkachuk brothers were generating chances like they were a team themselves.
It’s not the best individual expected goal total in the tournament, even on their own team (Guentzel had 1.6 against Canada), but it’s the fact that both brothers did so at a nearly similar rate and had that synergy right out of the gate despite never playing together in their junior and professional careers that makes it such an interesting achievement. Unfortunately, their time together has been cut short, as Matthew was hurt against Canada and Brady against Sweden, but hopefully we get more Tkachuk action on Thursday.
Henri Jokiharju vs. Sweden
A lot was made of the state of Finland’s blueline going into the tournament. When healthy, its depth was already questionable, but with Miro Heiskanen, Rasmus Ristolainen and Jani Hakanpaa all injured and out for the 4 Nations Face-Off, it felt like Finland was scraping the bottom of the barrel to put together a blueline for the tournament, leading many to believe that they would be a non-factor.
Of course, that wasn’t what happened. Not only did Finland have a bit more fight in them than many expected, they also managed to pull off the upset against their Nordic rivals in Sweden with a 4-3 overtime win. Mikael Granlund and Patrik Laine got some credit for their performances in the win, but it’s fitting that Henri Jokiharju, one of the replacement blueliners who were doubted in this tournament, was one of the key pieces to winning that game.
While Jokiharju wasn’t put into the top pairing role that Esa Lindell and Niko Mikkola held, he was third in 5v5 ice-time among Finnish defensemen with 16:01, and he wasn’t exactly facing easier competition in those minutes. Despite that, Jokiharju finished the game with a 95.42% 5v5 expected goals for percentage, more than 30% higher than any other player in the game. More impressively, he saw just one shot attempt go towards his net in the game, and it was a very low quality shot worth 0.01 in expected goals. It wasn’t a fluke either, as he finished the tournament with an on-ice expected goals against of 0.36 across all three games. He was considered to be a snub from Finland’s initial roster, and he certainly proved why he should have been considered from the start with his performance in the tournament.
Thomas Harley vs. United States
Talk about being thrown to the wolves. Thomas Harley was only a few hours away from a trip to Cabo when he was asked to join Team Canada in Montreal in the wake of an injury to Shea Theodore and an illness to Cale Makar. After only practising for a day, Harley was thrown into one of the most anticipated games of the century in place of Makar, who was expected to be one of the biggest difference-makers in that game. No pressure.
Well, we all know how that game unfolded. We saw three fights in the first nine seconds of the game, and after Connor McDavid scored an amazing goal to open the scoring for Canada, the United States responded with three straight goals to win it. There were multiple players to blame for the loss, and Canada definitely needed Makar in the lineup, but Harley was far from the problem. He finished the night leading the team in 5v5 xGF% with 91.01%, and he also lead all blueliners in xGA in the game with just 0.14.
It’s not like Harley faced easier competition just because he was new to the lineup either. At 5v5, Canada opted to roll all three of their pairs instead of having specific players play different matchups, as their ice time leader in Devon Toews had 18:49 while Travis Sanheim had the lowest total with 15:10. That meant that Harley had just as tough of a night at 5v5 as the other five defensemen and somehow found a way to shine above the rest of them. Considering that it came with the context of officially joining the team only a day prior, it makes the feat all the more impressive.
Connor Hellebuyck vs. Canada
You probably don’t need me to tell you that Hellebuyck is one of, if not the best goaltender in the NHL right now. Not only is he the clear leader in most goalie stats and the Vezina Trophy frontrunner, he’s even second in goals saved above expected since 2007-08 (when the stat was first tracked) behind only Henrik Lundqvist. It made Hellebuyck an easy lock for the United States team at the 4 Nations Face-Off, and between how amazing he was and how mediocre Canada’s goaltending was, it seemed like he was going to be the biggest difference maker when the two teams played head-to-head.
We have yet to find out what will happen on Thursday’s finale, but Hellebuyck was indeed the difference maker for the United States during their first matchup with Canada. While Jordan Binnington was far from the reason for Canada’s struggles with a 0.52 goals saved above expected in the game, Hellebuyck put up a performance that did not surprise anyone who has watched him play over the past several years.
The focus of the United States’ win was how they stifled Canada’s stars and their chances, but that wasn’t exactly the case. By the end of the night, Canada had fired almost 4 expected goals Hellebuyck’s way, yet only one found its way past him (and it needed to be off the stick of Connor McDavid). All in all, Hellebuyck finished the night with 2.98 GSAx, giving one of the best goaltender performances in one of the most important games of the round-robin portion of the tournament, and he showed us that even a collection of some of the best players in the world still struggles to beat Hellebuyck.
Samuel Ersson vs. United States
While Hellebuyck had the highest expectations at the 4 Nations Face-Off, it’s hard to think of a goalie who had lower expectations than Samuel Ersson. He originally wasn’t named to the Swedish roster, joining as a replacement for Jacob Markstrom, and many weren’t expecting him to get any ice time. Based on Ersson’s performance this season, he was easily the worst goalie in the tournament.
But circumstances arose, and with neither Filip Gustavsson or Linus Ullmark appearing to be fit to play for Monday’s game against the United States, and with Sweden already eliminated from a championship berth, it made sense to go to Ersson with nothing to win or lose. On paper, it looked like the U.S. was set for an easy win on home ice and would claim all of the nine possible points in the round-robin, but Ersson had other plans.
Don’t let Sweden’s 2-1 win fool you; the United States were the better team in the game. The Tre Kronor got some key goals from Gustav Nyquist and Jesper Bratt to secure the win, but it was Ersson’s play in the game that really earned the Swedes the win. Not only did he turn aside 32 of 33 shots, he also stopped 3.05 GSAx, the highest total by one goalie in a game in the tournament. Sure, it came in what was a meaningless contest for both teams, but it will be a game that Ersson likely never forgets.
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