Six NHL forwards not getting recognition for their defensive play
There’s something exciting about witnessing a player break out and establish themselves as a top performer in their role. Whether it’s a goal-scorer scoring at an elite rate in minimal minutes who’s finally given a chance at the top of the lineup, a feisty bottom-six forward thrown into the top six and producing more or a backup goaltender finally being given the reins and proving to be a starter, seeing any player thrive in a new role always makes for a fun watch. And it’s even more fun when you can see it coming.
One role that’s often very hard to notice a breakout for is that of the defensive forward. For the longest time, their success was hard to accurately quantify, largely coming down to more standard stats like time on ice or plus/minus, or maybe they just played a lot of penalty kill minutes for a long time and happened to get their moment in the playoffs for people to give them more respect. More often than not, their rise to fame would be through hearsay of the media and the fans.
Thankfully, with the stats we have access to today, it’s a lot easier to look for those types of players, if you know where to look. Much like I did with defensive defensemen a couple of months ago, I’m going to save you a few steps and present several forwards who have managed some excellent defensive play this season and are not getting the recognition that they deserve.
There are two rules I put in place for a forward to qualify for this list. First, he can’t already be well known for being a strong defensive forward. Some might be better known by their fanbases, have some draft pedigree, or may even be well-known but not for their defensive play, but they can’t have gotten the respect league-wide already.
Second, they have to be playing tough competition. There’s a lot of forwards who are good defensively but generally playing against players at the bottom of their respective lineups, so it’s not nearly as tough to put up those numbers. The players on my list are generally playing in the top six on their teams and shutting down tougher competition. To judge this, I used the competition percentile stat displayed on JFreshHockey‘s player cards, with the threshold being that the percentile has to be above 50%.
Cody Glass (New Jersey Devils)
The former sixth-overall pick hasn’t lived up to the potential that he came into the league with, as Glass’ 89 career points have even fallen below his single-season outputs in his draft and draft +1 seasons in the WHL. It’s a big reason why he never found a home with the Vegas Golden Knights and has moved through a couple of teams before finding himself on the New Jersey Devils after a trade deadline deal.
While his offense hasn’t been there, Glass has begun to carve out a niche in the league for him as a defensive forward in the past few seasons. That began in the 2022-23 season where he had a 5.2 defensive GAR, and after a poor showing in 2023-24 at -3.6, he’s rebounded again at 4.5 this season, which ranks 14th among forwards.
Glass also has a -0.247 RAPM xGA/60, the seventh-best mark in the league, and while a quality of competition in the 51st percentile is one of the lower points you’ll see on this list, it’s a sign that there’s some progress in his game. While Glass won’t fill the Jack Hughes-sized void on the Devils, Glass’ defensive play will be a valuable add for a team looking to win without Hughes.
Barrett Hayton (Utah Hockey Club)
Much like Glass, Hayton is also a player selected high in the draft who hasn’t lived up to that potential. Drafted fifth overall in 2018, he’s found a bit more success in terms of offensive production with a few more 20-point seasons than Glass, especially when he’s paired up with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz on the top line for the Arizona Coyotes/Utah Hockey Club. However, where Hayton and Glass have some common ground is how they’ve stepped up their defensive play this season.
Hayton is currently 17th in defensive GAR with 4.3, a drastic increase over the rest of his career, where he’d never had a defensive GAR higher than 0.9. His -0.139 RAPM xGA/60 isn’t nearly as highly ranked among forwards, sitting at 55th in the league, but with an 83rd percentile quality of competition, he’s playing amongst the best players in the league while getting those numbers.
It’s made Hayton the perfect complementary piece to that top line with Keller and Schmaltz when he’s played on it, acting as the defensive stalwart of the unit so that the other two can run rampant offensively, and it’s a reason why the Utah is fighting for a playoff spot at this point of the season.
Ilya Mikheyev (Chicago Blackhawks)
Mikheyev first broke into the league as a high-paced winger for the Toronto Maple Leafs after signing out of the KHL, sometimes being an excellent bottom-six scoring threat, and sometimes looking like he might never score a goal again. His defensive play doesn’t exactly overcome those offensive inconsistencies enough to make him worth his $4.75 million cap hit (hence why he was dealt as a cap dump to the Chicago Blackhawks last summer), but it’s still more than enough to make him an everyday NHLer.
Mikheyev has always had some defensive presence in the NHL, especially on the penalty kill, but it’d only developed to a stronger level in the past couple of seasons. Last season saw his defense take strides with a career-high 3.7 defensive goals above replacement (GAR) and a -0.149 regularized adjusted plus-minus expected goals against per 60 (RAPM xGA/60), but that’s been even better this season at marks of 7.9 and -0.303.
To make those numbers even more impressive, Mikheyev’s step up has come while going from playing bottom six minutes on a defensively strong 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks squad to a top six role with a lottery-contending Blackhawks team, all while facing competition in the 80th percentile.
Victor Olofsson (Vegas Golden Knights)
When you think of Olofsson, defensive specialist probably isn’t what comes to mind. After all, he broke into the league as more of a power play specialist, scoring 20 goals and 42 points in 54 games in his rookie season, with 11 of those goals and 17 of those points coming on the man advantage. He was almost Ovechkin-like with his one-timer, but his offense was inconsistent throughout his Buffalo Sabres tenure, leading to the Golden Knights taking a flyer on him this season.
While Olofsson hasn’t produced at the level that the Golden Knights were hoping for when in search of winger depth, he has managed to turn around his defensive play. In his six seasons with Buffalo, he had a -12.9 defensive GAR and a 0.126 RAPM xGA/60. This season with Vegas, he has a 3.7 defensive GAR and a -0.196 RAPM xGA/60, and that’s come while facing a quality of competition in the 60th percentile.
It’s not like Olofsson’s had the benefit of playing with some of Vegas’ defensive stalwarts up front like Mark Stone or William Karlsson either, as Olofsson’s only played a respective 18.2% and 12.8% of his ice time with those two. This is all Olofsson, and hopefully it’s another tool he can add to his game to stick around at the NHL level.
Vasily Podkolzin (Edmonton Oilers)
It seems like the Edmonton Oilers can’t escape having a winger who was drafted in the top 10, never lived up to those expectations offensively and has found a defensive gear to their game. While Podkolzin wasn’t an Oilers draft pick like Jesse Puljujarvi was, and was drafted 10th overall as opposed to fourth, Podkolzin was an under-the-radar addition to Edmonton, finding a way to secure himself a role in the top six alongside Leon Draisaitl, and his defensive play has evolved in the process.
It’s not that Podkolzin was bad defensively, as he’s found himself in the range of replacement level during his three seasons with the Canucks. But this season, he’s become a very strong defensive force for the Oilers, with a 4.1 defensive GAR (which is 19th among forwards) and a -0.191 RAPM xGA/60 (20th in the league), all coming against competition in the 67th percentile.
While these stats isolate a player’s impact from factors like teammates, it’s interesting how both Podkolzin and Draisaitl have seen their defensive games take significant strides alongside each other and at the very least make their lives much easier in their own end.
Rickard Rakell (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Rakell is far from an unknown name in the NHL. He’s established himself as a top-six forward in the league for the better part of 10 years now, has hit the 30-goal and 60-point mark on two occasions, and probably will do the same on both fronts this season for the Pittsburgh Penguins. His defensive play was never what he was known for, partially because it has had its inconsistencies over the course of his career, trending from solid to downright bad.
However, this season, he’s putting up numbers that are almost Selke Trophy worthy, and along with having a strong season offensively, he’s returned to the Rakell of old that was such a force with the Anaheim Ducks. He is currently tied for 15th among forwards in defensive GAR with 4.4 and is sixth in RAPM xGA/60 at -0.248, and unlike a lot of the forwards ahead of him on both lists, it comes against some brutal competition, facing the 95th percentile in that regard.
Some may think it’s because Rakell is playing with Sidney Crosby, but the Penguins captain has actually seen his defensive game teeter below replacement level. Crosby carries the offense on that line, but Rakell is the defensive anchor.
_____
POST SPONSORED BY bet365
_____