Skinner vs. Bobrovsky: Breaking down the 2024 Stanley Cup Final goalie matchup

Steven Ellis
Steven Ellis
Stuart Skinner and Sergei Bobrovsky
Credit: USA Today Images

What a season it’s been for the two starting goalies set to do battle in the Stanley Cup Final.

Stuart Skinner took over the starting gig early from Jack Campbell, who was placed on waivers on Nov. 7 and remained in Bakersfield for the rest of the season. Skinner had his ups and downs, but for the most part, he was a mid-pack goaltender that would have his off nights but could steal a few games along the way. It was hard to be truly confident in Edmonton’s goalie situation, but with the talent the group Edmonton has, all they needed Skinner to do was just not royally screw up.

So far, so good.

But for Sergei Bobrovsky, it’s been one of the best seasons of his career. He regained clear No. 1 status after losing it in the second half of 2022-23 only to lead the Florida Panthers to the Final last spring. Bobrovsky is a finalist for the Vezina Trophy and is the only one of the three – Vancouver’s Thatcher Demko and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck being the others – to lead their team to a series victory this year.

So, how do the two starters stack up? Let’s take a look:

EDMONTON OILERS vs. FLORIDA PANTHERS

Edmonton Oilers

Stuart Skinner
2023-24 regular season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, .905 SV%, 2 shutouts
Career playoffs: 8-7, 2.96 GAA, .891 SV%, 1 shutout
2024 record: 11-5, 2.50 GAA, .897 SV%, 1 shutout

Calvin Pickard
2023-24 regular season: 12-7-1, 2.45 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 shutout
Career playoffs: 1-1, 2.21 GAA, .915 SV%, 0 shutouts
2024 record: 1-1, 2.21 GAA, .915 SV%, 0 shutouts

Florida Panthers

Sergei Bobrovsky
2023-24 regular season: 36-17-4, 2.37 GAA, .915 SV%, 6 shutouts
Career playoffs: 41-40, 2.86 GAA, .906 SV%, 2 shutouts
2024 playoffs: 12-5, 2.20 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 shutout

Anthony Stolarz
2023-24 regular season: 16-7-2, 2.03 GAA, .925 SV%, 2 shutouts
Career playoffs: N/A

Skinner needed to be significantly better than he was in the first two rounds if the Oilers were going to prevail against Dallas. Jake Oettinger entered the Western Conference Final as the top goaltender in the postseason, and he still played decent against the Oilers. But for the first time, he was truly just “fine.” He allowed fewer goals against at 5-on-5 than Skinner, and was better statistically. But two early goals from the Oilers in Game 6 sunk Oettinger and the Stars, and the Oilers were able to push through and advance.

As a whole, it was a good run for Skinner. Ever since he was replaced by Calvin Pickard midway through the second-round series against the Vancouver Canucks, Skinner has found a balance that has allowed him to look more confident and consistent. He still allowed the odd-bad goal, and he’s far from perfect. But for the first time all playoffs long, the Oilers could realistically look in their own end and feel confident they could contend with Skinner in net.

At 5-on-5, Skinner still had the worst stats of the four goalies in the third round. He had a .907 save percentage and -2.60 goals saved above average to put him last, but his high-danger save percentage of .806 was only bested by Igor Shesterkin’s .878. Skinner looked significantly more comfortable in his crease, especially on tougher, in-tight chances the Stars sent his way.

Goals against for Stuart Skinner over the past 10 2024 Stanley Cup playoff games (data from SportContract)

Those stats aren’t particularly impressive, but compared to what we saw early on, it was a huge step forward. Over his first 10 games, Skinner’s .887 SV% and -5.93 GSAA at 5-on-5 were far and away the worst of any goaltender with more than five games played. Yet again, it looked like goaltending was going to cook the Oilers, so it’s good to see Skinner find his focus again when it mattered. At the very least, his save percentage has improved with each passing series.

One weakness that has been apparent in Skinner’s game is when there’s a puck scramble around the net. Given his narrower butterfly and slower lateral movement, you can often score when Skinner is frantically trying to move around his crease. He has struggled down low below his blocker, often after watching his opponents win puck battles in close. Skinner also had a rough time dealing with tipped shots, which are partly hard to control on his end. We also saw that Jason Robertson goal where he found the smallest opening by Skinner’s right skate – he has a tendency to not close up that gap well enough, something that has also hurt Bobrovsky at times.

“For Skinner, the puck has to travel East-West for the Florida Panthers,” said former NHL goaltender Carter Hutton. “Even though Edmonton has done a good job on the power play so that he doesn’t have to move too much, I think Skinner has the advantage when he stays to one side of the rink.”

Going the other way, watching Bobrovsky get to the Stanley Cup in consecutive years after most of the hockey world seemingly gave up on him earlier in 2022-23 has been incredible to see. A two-time Vezina Trophy winner, there’s no question Bobrovsky’s seven-year, $10 million AAV deal could have sunk the team – especially after the team had just drafted Spencer Knight to seemingly serve as the goalie of the future.

But just like a year ago, Bobrovsky has gotten the job done this year. He had 36 wins in the regular season in one of the best years of his career, showing the 2023 playoff run wasn’t just a fluke. He had some wonky outings early on in the playoffs this year, but he has allowed more than two goals in just one of his past 11 starts.

Goals against for Sergei Bobrovsky over the past 10 2024 Stanley Cup playoff games (data from SportContract)

In his six starts against the Rangers, Bobrovsky’s numbers were slightly below Shesterkin’s. He had a 1.16 GAA and a .938 save percentage, sitting second behind his Russian counterpart for the Blueshirts. The difference? Florida did a significantly better job at preventing shots from coming near the net, with Bobrovsky allowing just six goals at 5-on-5.

Florida’s rock-solid defensive approach has been crucial for them the past two years, as has Bobrovsky’s ability to lock things down when it matters most. We’re not talking Andrei Vasilevskiy-level dominant, but without Officer Bobrovsky on the case, the Panthers wouldn’t be playing for the Stanley Cup for a second consecutive year.

Bobrovsky’s athleticism has taken him far in his career. He can be awkward with his style, looking a bit more old-school at times, but he makes it work with pure speed and near-perfect positioning more often than not. He’s excellent laterally, making it hard to beat him on cross-crease passes.

Bobrovsky has been the better goalie this year, but he’s far from perfect. He has had a difficult time with high-glove shots, but he has been nearly flawless down low – something that was a bit more of an issue during the regular season.

“(Bobrovsky’s) a guy that likes to move too much at times, he can get outside his post, he can chase the puck,” Hutton said. “It’s a crutch for Bobrovsky right now. He has such great lateral movement, so when you get him chasing the game, I think that is your advantage, and it makes it harder on him.”

From a head-to-head perspective, Bobrovsky won both starts against the Oilers this year, while Skinner sat both times. Bobrovsky allowed three goals on 29 shots on Nov. 20 but looked excellent with a 38-save effort on Dec. 16 in one of his better performances in the first half of the season.

Both goalies are mentally strong – you have to be to get this far in the season. Skinner has ignored the noise and found ways to keep proving people wrong with his countless bounce-back efforts. Do the Oilers wish he could be a bit more consistent? Absolutely, but he’s a big reason why they’ve gotten this far. Skinner has been working closely with George Mumford – a well-respected sports psychologist – to help him manage the pressure, and we’ve been seeing the results lately. Bobrovsky has always had a zen-like mindset and that’s made him so successful over the past two years. And with a healthy team in front him, he doesn’t have to carry the Panthers like he was forced to do – and failed to do – in the Final a year ago.

Bobrovsky has the experience of playing in the Final a year ago. Will that matter? Can he mentally overcome the hurdles of not trying to fall short again? Will being completely green help Skinner? It’s an interesting question. We’re looking at two goalies at different stages in their careers battling it out for the Stanley Cup. There’s a lot to like here.

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