Stanley Cup betting odds: Are the Canadiens worth a look at 55-1?

With the bulk of free agency signings and offseason transactions having been completed, it’s a fitting time to take our first look at the Stanley Cup betting odds for the upcoming 2025-26 NHL season.

Relative to many other NHL seasons, oddsmakers are stating that the league is top-heavy with three teams currently priced at +750 or shorter at Sports Interaction: the Florida Panthers (+600), Edmonton Oilers (+700), and Carolina Hurricanes (+750).

If you simply asked me to pick next year’s Cup winner, I’d be torn between the two consensus favorites in the Panthers and Oilers, and probably take my chances with a Panthers three-peat after management essentially found a way to keep the whole group together.

Neither of those teams looks to be a particularly savvy bet to make early on in the campaign, though. It would not be remotely surprising to see both coast through the regular season and for their respective betting prices to either remain the same or perhaps even get longer in the middle of the year, just as we saw in 2023-24.

If you’re locking in a futures position this far out in advance, it should be with a team whose betting price has the potential to shorten significantly, and there looks to be one side out there in particular that fits that bill quite well.

Montreal Canadiens +5500 to Win Stanley Cup: +5500 Sports Interaction, +130 to Make Playoffs

The Canadiens appear to be the lone team way down the board with the upside of exceeding expectations in the regular season and then entering the playoffs with a considerably shorter betting price to win it all.

Out of each of the 16 teams that qualified for the 2023-24 postseason, the Canadiens are considered the least likely to be a playoff team once again next season (+130). Considering the ages of all of their most important pieces and the strong moves that GM Kent Hughes made this offseason, that seems hard to believe.

Roster depth was a big concern for the Canadiens in 2023-24, and it would be fair to say that they were the worst team to make the playoffs, and that point certainly looked to be true during their first-round exit versus the Washington Capitals.

Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Lane Hutson all had elite seasons, which helped to cover up for some dead weight further down the lineup card. Each of those three should either remain comparably excellent this year or perhaps even take steps forward and will be insulated by a much deeper supporting cast.

Ivan Demidov is rightfully priced as the betting favorite to win the Calder Trophy at +175. After posting 49 points in 65 KHL games this season with fairly debatable usage at times, the 19-year-old phenom showed flashes of brilliance during his brief stint with the Canadiens at the tail end of the campaign.

It’s highly realistic that Demidov can be an impact player in the team’s top six this season, and help bolster an offense that ranked 17th in goals scored per game during the 2023-24 regular season.

Hughes also has likely made an excellent move in acquiring Zac Bolduc, who plays a strong two-way game and will insert some jam into a smaller lineup, from the St. Louis Blues. Bolduc finished the 2023-24 season with a +11.4 expected Goals Above Replacement rating, and should greatly improve the depth of the middle six.

The addition of Noah Dobson also has the potential to improve the Canadiens blue line significantly. The 25-year-old right shot has excellent offensive upside and has looked like a legitimate number-one defenseman at times in his career.

As seems to be the case with all puck-moving defenders that spend plenty of time with the puck on their stick every night, Dobson draws plenty of criticism when he does make notable mistakes; however, the underlying metrics suggest that good still outweighs the bad quite significantly.

The Canadiens’ goaltending situation also looks rock solid, with Samuel Montembeault and Jakub Dobes likely to offer a strong tandem once again. Montembeault holds a +27.9 GSAx rating over the last two regular seasons, while Dobes was fantastic after earning the backup role last season, finishing with a +9.0 GSAx rating and .909 save percentage in 16 appearances.

The team could certainly still use one more high-make quality center, but it’s realistic that the team will either acquire one this offseason, or end up as a buyer at next year’s trade deadline after a strong start to the season and bring one in at that point.

There looks to be value in backing the Canadiens to win the Cup at +5500, and I’d recommend coupling it with a larger bet on them to make the playoffs at +130.