As NHL’s heaviest team, are Leafs finally poised for a Stanley Cup run?
It’s the hardest trophy to win in pro sports. Among the NHL’s field of 32, 10 franchises have yet to lift the Stanley Cup, and 17 haven’t done so for 30 or more years.
It’s thus no wonder teams search for every edge they can possibly find to help reach the summit, from expanded scouting staffs to high-performance coaches to sports psychologists to LTIR circumvention.
Well, GMs, if you’re reading this: what if I told you I developed a formula consisting of seven common ingredients among recent Stanley Cup champions, using the previous 10 seasons as the sample to study?
Welcome to season 4 of Daily Faceoff Stanley Cup ingredients. If you’re curious as to whether the process works: last season, four of the five teams possessing the most ingredients were the Edmonton Oilers (6 of 7), New York Rangers (6 of 7), Dallas Stars (5 of 7) and Florida Panthers (5 of 7), a.k.a. the final four teams in the Stanley Cup playoff bracket.
Note that the strength of each ingredient can shift year over year. Since we use rolling 10-season samples, we drop one Cup-winning team and add one each season, so the correlation of a certain trait can strengthen or weaken.
We commence the 2024-25 Ingredients series by identifying who plays heavy hockey. Did you enjoy watching the Tkachuk brothers bust people up at the 4 Nations Face-Off? That style translates extremely well to postseason success.
Stanley Cup Ingredient #1: TEAM WEIGHT
Even though the game is faster and more skilled than ever, there’s a mini regression toward a style of yesteryear in the playoffs. Scoring goes down, players have less time and space and officials tend to permit more physical play. The biggest teams are built best to thrive in this environment. Size matters.
According to Elite Prospects’ team comparison data, here’s how the past 10 Stanley Cup winners ranked in their respective seasons in average player weight.
| Season | Champion | Avg. Weight | League rank |
| 2014-15 | Chicago | 198 lbs | 28th |
| 2015-16 | Pittsburgh | 195 lbs | 30th |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh | 194 lbs | 30th |
| 2017-18 | Washington | 204 lbs | 6th |
| 2018-19 | St. Louis | 203 lbs | 5th |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay | 203 lbs | 4th |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay | 204 lbs | 2nd |
| 2021-22 | Colorado | 199 lbs | 14th |
| 2022-23 | Vegas | 205 lbs | 1st |
| 2023-24 | Florida | 199 lbs | 18th |
Stanley Cup correlation: Strong, but fading
Five of the past seven Stanley Cup champions have ranked among the league’s six heaviest teams, suggesting the overall correlation remains strong. That said, it’s intriguing that two of the past three winners have sat around the middle of the pack. Are we seeing a shift? It’s possible. Then again, while the 2023-24 Panthers didn’t rank among the NHL’s biggest teams, they were the meanest, leading the NHL in hits and penalty minutes. So it appears they punched above their weight class and played heavy hockey even if they were an averaged-sized club.
So which teams in the current field bring the brawn? Let’s examine the leaders in average weight, with data from Elite Prospects reflecting rosters as of March 13, 2025.
2024-25 NHL leaders, average team weight
1. Toronto Maple Leafs, 207.7 lbs
2. New York Rangers, 206.5 lbs
3. Los Angeles Kings, 204.8 lbs
4. Vegas Golden Knights, 204.2 lbs
5. Boston Bruins, 203.2 lbs
6. Washington Capitals, 202.9 lbs
7. Montreal Canadiens, 202.6 lbs
8. Edmonton Oilers, 202.6 lbs
9. Utah Hockey Club, 202.2 lbs
10. Seattle Kraken, 201.5 lbs
Leafs GM Brad Treliving sure is committed to beefing up a club that hasn’t escaped Round 2 of the playoffs since 2002. Toronto is the heaviest NHL team by average age in seven seasons. Acquiring Brandon Carlo for an already-towering D-corps added that much more beef.
The list of the biggest clubs includes several other top-tier contenders, including the Eastern Conference leading Capitals and the reigning Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers. Half the teams in the top 10 hold down playoff spots at the moment, and nine of the top 10 sit within two points of a berth.
On the whole, it feels like the heavy-hockey correlation has faded slightly, but it still grades out as an advantage over opponents heading into the postseason.
Next up: Top-10 scorers
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POST SPONSORED BY bet365
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