Which 2024-25 Stanley Cup contender is a paper tiger?
Now that we’ve entered the stretch run and are three quarters through the NHL season, we have a pretty good sense of who each team is. The sample sizes are large, and every club is done making its big roster changes.
Assessing the current playoff picture, particularly when it comes who sits in safe positions…Which team looks like a paper tiger right now?
MATT LARKIN: For me it’s the Carolina Hurricanes. Their recent hot streak has pretty much locked them into second in the Metro Division and home ice for Round 1 of the playoffs, but I look at what pieces went out and what ultimately came in as a result of acquiring and then trading Mikko Rantanen, and while the long-term return works, Carolina has weakened itself in the short term. It has no player ranked among the NHL’s top 30 scorers. It has the league’s 26th-best power play. The Canes’ goalie tandem of Pyotr Kochetkov and Freddie Andersen hasn’t proven reliable during a deep playoff run. They remain the NHL’s best play-driving team at 5-on-5, which would typically suggest they’re the opposite of a paper tiger, but what I see is a team that has all the same strengths and weaknesses of its other disappointing incarnations, lacking a game-breaker to push them deep enough in the postseason.
PAUL PIDUTTI: Raised in a blue and white jersey, dare I say it, but it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs for me. This is familiar territory of course, as the Leafs are hockey’s most infamous paper tiger. Going 1-8 in playoff series over an 8-year run will do that to your reputation. But this choice has nothing to do with past playoff failures or reputations. This group has been frustratingly inconsistent and we’re now into mid-March. Toronto’s vaunted offense hasn’t taken over games like it used to. That would be okay if Craig Berube’s impact had created a stronger defensive outfit. But that hasn’t been the case. The numbers show that at 5-on-5 the Leafs are shockingly in the bottom-third in expected goal share and below average in expected goals against per Natural Stat Trick. This all suggests a team propped up by stellar goaltending. Perhaps this is a bizarro Leafs version… one that finally peaks at the right time, overcomes vanilla underlying metrics and a grueling playoff bracket, receives clutch goaltending and timely offense, and makes a deep run. Paper tiger or not, Toronto will be the team you can’t take your eyes off in April.
SCOTT MAXWELL: Based on what we’ve seen this season, there are 13 surefire playoff teams, which consist of all the teams currently in the playoffs now, hold for the two Wildcard spots in the East and the second Wildcard spot in the West. Out of all of those playoff teams, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the only team not in the top 16 in 5v5 expected goal share. In fact, they’re 22nd. Not only that, but they’re the only team to be outside of the top 20 in 5v5 expected goals for and against per 60 minutes, and even if you wanted to include teams that are outside of the top 20 in only one of those categories, that just adds the Minnesota Wild (30th in xGF/60) and the Washington Capitals (22nd in xGA/60). For a team that has consistently been one of the best in the league in this regard for a majority of the Auston Matthews era, it’s jarring to see them perform this badly to the point where they’re relying on hot shooting and goaltending. While I wouldn’t be surprised if that somehow leads them to winning a couple rounds because hockey never makes sense, this is easily the worst performance we’ve seen from the Buds in the past 10 years and nowhere closer to winning a Stanley Cup than the previous iterations.
STEVEN ELLIS: I know the Edmonton Oilers nearly proved everyone wrong last year, but I still don’t believe in their goaltending. For every positive stretch that Stuart Skinner goes through, you see many others where you just question why the Oilers still believe he’s a true No. 1. Finding goaltending help is difficult, I get it. But they don’t have a prospect in the system who is close to being a full-time NHLer, and Skinner’s advanced analytics are just average at best. I just don’t think they’re going to win with him in net.
ANTHONY DI MARCO: I think it’s the Winnipeg Jets – and it kills me to say that. They’ve had a remarkable year under Scott Arniel, but without being able to bolster their second line down the middle or add an impact name on the back end, I feel like they’re one injury away from having the house of cards completely crumble. Their divisional rivals in the Stars and Avs locked and loaded ahead of the playoffs; I just don’t see how the Jets can go toe to toe with either. They do have a game changer in Connor Hellebuyck, but his playoff struggles are well documented. It’s tough to say, but the Jets seem like they’re anything but in control of the Central Division.
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