Stanley Cup Windows 2023-24: Central Division

Credit: Jake Oettinger and Nathan MacKinnon (© Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)

Earlier this week, I launched Stanley Cup Windows, a series on Daily Faceoff assessing where each team sits on its contention timeline. First, I profiled the Atlantic Division, in which seven of eight teams have designs on making the playoffs in 2022-23.

Today, we shift toward the murky Central Division picture, featuring two teams poised for many more years chasing championships and several others with serious identity crises.

WINDOW WIDE OPEN

Colorado Avalanche

The Avs, like every Cup champion in the cap era, have reached their top-heavy, “get creative” years with the salary cap. They’ve lost their No. 2 center to unrestricted free agency in consecutive summers with Nazem Kadri and J.T. Compher departing. But their superstars, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar, are still just 27, 26 and 24, respectively. Versatile secondary forwards Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen are 28. Starting goaltender Alexandar Georgiev is 27. Blueliner Bowen Byram is just coming into his own at 22. Most of Colorado’s key contributors are locked up on long-term deals, too. The only concern is figuring out Rantanen, who is two years away from unrestricted free agency. On the whole, the Avs still have multiple seasons left to push for championships with multiple elite players in their primes – even with captain Gabriel Landeskog (knee) set to miss all of 2023-24.

Dallas Stars

A few years back, the Stars appeared to be exiting their contention window, limping away from their 2020 Stanley Cup Final defeat with a core of aging veterans unsure if they’d get a shot again. But now? The likes of Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are support options for the new core consisting of Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz up front, Miro Heiskanen on defense and Jake Oettinger in net. All four are between 23 and 26, maturing into their early primes now. The Stars have also reloaded with some promising young help arriving from within. Wyatt Johnston showed lots of potential as a rookie center, and Logan Stankoven will eventually get his shot. Like Colorado, Dallas has an enviable collection of top-end star talent still years away from turning 30, so we should expect many more years of contention in the Lone Star State.

WIN-NOW WINDOW

Minnesota Wild

I place the Wild in the win-now window based on their current roster construction, but that doesn’t mean I expect them to, uh, win now. They needed to make deep playoff runs in the previous couple seasons, as the buyout penalties for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter peak at $14.74 million in each of the next two seasons. The Wild thus can’t afford to make many if any upgrades. It hasn’t been surprising to see GM Bill Guerin so dormant this offseason. What little cap space the Wild have must be devoted toward re-signing RFA goaltender Filip Gustavsson following his breakout 2022-23 season. The Wild remain built to be somewhat competitive, led by two excellent forwards; Kirill Kaprizov is smack in his prime at 26 and Matt Boldy is warming up at 22. Boldy is signed long-term, as is handy two-way center Joel Eriksson Ek, 26. But most of Minny’s other key contributors – Mats Zuccarello and Marcus Foligno up front, Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin on defense – are in their 30s now. Unless prospect Marco Rossi finally shows he can stick in the NHL, the Wild don’t look like a team trending toward progression. They seem destined to hang around as a mid-tier playoff contender for the next couple years.

FOGGY WINDOW

Nashville Predators

In his first few laps around the track as Predators GM, Barry Trotz has delivered one of the most befuddling offseasons I can remember. He sent Ryan Johansen to Colorado in a retained-salary trade. He bought out Matt Duchene. It appeared the Preds, who had also traded Mattias Ekholm and Tanner Jeannot at the deadline this past winter, were sick of being ‘mid.’ And then…Trotz signed 30-something veterans Ryan O’Reilly, Luke Schenn and Gustav Nyquist to multi-year deals on Day 1 of free agency? It appears a team that has finished fourth or fifth in the Central four straight seasons is content to keep doing so. Bet on another season of the Predators hanging around the bubble and praying for goaltender Juuse Saros to carry them into a late-season playoff berth.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues didn’t have the horses in 2022-23, and GM Doug Armstrong cut his losses, dealing O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko and Ivan Barbashev, among others, in exchange for futures. They didn’t enter the offseason as clear rebuilders, however. Two of their best young forwards, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, are commencing their eight-year extensions. They have lots of cap space and term tied up in Colton Parayko, Torey Krug, Justin Faulk and Nick Leddy. The Blues aren’t bad enough to sink into tank territory. That’s why they pulled a trade for center Kevin Hayes this offseason. They’re hoping to shake off the playoff miss as a one-year blip, just as they did in summer 2018 – before winning the Stanley Cup the following season. That said: this remains a weaker team on paper than the one that missed the playoffs in 2022-23, so St. Louis is hardly a lock to contend for the playoffs going forward.

Winnipeg Jets

It was clear the Jets planned for big changes this summer after a disappointing five-game exit in Round 1 of the playoffs. The Blake Wheeler buyout wasn’t particularly shocking, nor was the long-telegraphed trade of Pierre-Luc Dubois. But what about the heavily anticipated trades of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck and top center Mark Scheifele? The further we progress into the offseason, the more likely they are to commence the final seasons of their contracts as Jets. That makes the Jets a difficult team to forecast for 2023-24. They’ve changed some of their dressing room culture but not all of it. They got some viable NHLers as part of the return for Dubois, but Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Rasmus Kupari aren’t going to be perennial all-stars. It doesn’t feel like GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is finished making over this roster.

WINDOW UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Arizona Coyotes

The Desert Dogs deserve plenty of credit for shedding their bottom-feeder, salary-dump trading post identity and actually trying to improve this offseason. Adding forwards Jason Zucker, Nick Bjugstad and Alexander Kerfoot and defensemen Sean Durzi, Troy Stecher and Travis Dermott? Not bad at all, especially when top-line forwards Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton and Nick Schmaltz built so much momentum last year. But just because you’re shifting your focus toward winning doesn’t mean you’re ready to win yet. While we should expect to see a lot more Dylan Guenther and perhaps Conor Geekie in 2023-24, top prospect Logan Cooley is returning to college for another season. So maybe the Coyotes’ ceiling doesn’t elevate in a meaningful way for another season. They’re no longer tanking, but they’re still rebuilding.

Chicago Blackhawks

They just tanked shamelessly, secured the No. 1 overall pick and drafted Connor Bedard, not to mention Oliver Moore. The Hawks stripped themselves down to the wood in preparation of this new era. They’re nowhere near ready to contend, and that’s standard when it comes to teams landing generational talents. You typically need to be terrible to get them. Mario Lemieux didn’t make the playoffs as a rookie, nor did Sidney Crosby nor Alex Ovechkin nor Connor McDavid. Bedard won’t will Chicago to the Big Dance in Year 1, either. Taylor Hall as a running mate won’t be enough to change that.

Previous Stanley Cup Windows entries

Atlantic Division

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