Skinner vs. Bobrovsky, Part 2: Breaking down the 2025 Stanley Cup Final goalie matchup

Steven Ellis
Steven Ellis(sellishockey)
Jun 2, 2025, 15:00 EDT
Stuart Skinner and Sergei Bobrovsky (Imagn Images)

Hey, you two again!

We haven’t seen a Stanley Cup Final rematch since 2009 when the Pittsburgh Penguins learned from their inexperience the year before beating the Detroit Red Wings. We’ve seen teams repeat as finalists – heck, this is the third straight season for the Florida Panthers – but it’ll mark the first time the Edmonton Oilers qualified for consecutive title series since winning in 1987 and 1988.

The goaltending looks to be solid for both teams, which you’d come to expect at this point in the juncture. Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky has had a few brainfarts, but has been great more often than not. The multi-time Vezina Trophy winner has shown he’s capable of battling back from a loss as well as anyone during these playoffs, and Florida will need that as the action heats up.

Stuart Skinner, meanwhile, was Edmonton’s starter heading into the playoffs, but lost it after two ugly starts against the Los Angeles Kings. Then, an injury to Calvin Pickard gave Skinner the net back and he’s been fantastic ever since, winning six of his seven subsequent starts.

Both have had to deal with adversity in these playoffs – Bobrovsky against Toronto and Skinner against Los Angeles. But both are on top of their games right now, and there realistically shouldn’t be any major issues heading into the playoffs.

So, how does each team stack up?

(P3) EDMONTON OILERS vs. (A3) FLORIDA PANTHERS

Edmonton Oilers

Stuart Skinner: 50 GP, 26-18-4, 2.81 GAA, .896 SV% (10 GP, 6-4, 2.53 GAA, .904 SV, 3 SO )
Calvin Pickard: 36 GP, 22-10-1, 2.71 GAA, .900 SV% (7 GP, 6-0, 2.84 GAA, .888 SV%)
Olivier Rodrigue: 2 GP, 0-1-0, 3.10 GAA, .862 SV%

Florida Panthers

Sergei Bobrovsky: 54 GP, 33-19-2, 2.44 GAA, .906 SV% (17 GP, 12-5, 2.11 GAA, .912 SV%, 3 SO)
Vitek Vaněček: 24 GP, 5-14-4, 3.62 GAA, .884 SV%

Skinner started the playoffs as one of the worst goalies in the NHL, with many – rightfully so – criticizing the Oilers’ decision to not improve their goaltending this season. But here we are, with Skinner playing a big part in the Oilers’ playoff success. He boasts a 3.31 GSAx at 5-on-5, which is good for fifth among all goaltenders in these playoffs.

More importantly, it’s much better than Bobrovsky’s 0.28 GSAx. Sure, Skinner has had his struggles, but he has come up bigger at 5-on-5 than Bobrovsky this year. And Skinner had to work his tail off to get to those numbers, too, after starting with a -2.56 at 5-on-5. If we’re looking at just the third round, Skinner had a 7.14 GSAx over five games at 5-on-5. Absolutely wild stuff.

Numbers don’t tell the whole story, but Skinner’s ability to close out key games is partly why the Oilers are off to the final again. He was crucial in Game 3 when he stopped 34 of 35 shots sent his way – literally double what he did in Game 5 (he allowed three goals in the win). It’s admittedly crazy to see that three of his six playoff wins this year have been shutouts.

How do you beat Skinner? According to SportContract, Skinner has done an excellent job up high, allowing just six of 25 playoffs goals in the top third of the net. His blocker side and five-hole (five goals against in both) have been a struggle for him, with the lower third being his kryptonite.

Stuart Skinner’s goal locations (data via SportContract)

If everything goes south, the Oilers have Pickard fully healthy and ready to go. He went 6-0 before suffering an injury in the second round, and he did it despite his stats being ugly. That’s partly a testament to the total team effort the Oilers brought every single night, but it also showed that the Oilers had two goalies capable of winning games, even when they weren’t easy.

Bobrovsky might have the lighter analytics, but he has the most games played and is the only goaltender with at least 10 wins this postseason. He’s been so clutch year after year in the playoffs, helping to cement his status as a future Hockey Hall of Famer.

Florida was always expected to beat the Carolina Hurricanes, but many anticipated a close goaltending matchup. Instead, Bobrovsky absolutely dominated the Hurricanes’ duo of Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov, with Bobrovsky’s GSAx of 3.56 showcasing some of his best playoff hockey to date. That came after he battled back from a difficult start against Toronto and won four of the final five games in Round 2 to get the Panthers this far in the first place.

Bobrovsky has struggled with the five-hole during the playoffs, especially recently. Five of his seven goals against from between the wickets have come over the past 10 games – and four of them came in the third period of games. It’s a strange coincidence, but Borovsky has always been much better at covering the top half of the net.

Sergei Bobrovsky’s goal locations (data via SportContract)

Things could get interesting if something goes wrong and Vaněček needs to step in. He hasn’t played in more than a month and a half and has allowed five goals in his final start. Overall, his tenure in Florida was a bit of a disaster, with just one regulation victory in seven starts (a shutout against Buffalo). Even though he has more experience as an NHL starter, few would have more confidence in Vaněček over Pickard in a battle of the backups.

It’s rare to get a Stanley Cup Final rematch. But here we are. We’ve got one goalie trying to prove people wrong yet again, and another who’s trying to add to an already crowded trophy case. Skinner experienced the ups and downs of battling for the Cup last year, while Bobrovsky actually got to raise it. Thankfully, for Oilers fans, there’s reason to believe the team’s goaltending situation is in the best shape it has been in over the past two years. Skinner is red-hot right now. The issue? So is Bobrovsky.

This is about to get spicy.

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