Taking a closer look at the hotly contested Eastern Conference playoff race

Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

We’re five months into the 2023–24 NHL regular season, which leaves roughly six weeks for the playoff picture to come into focus.

At this point, the Western Conference looks pretty much set. Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado, Vancouver, Vegas, Edmonton, and L.A. are all basically locks to make it, with Nashville the frontrunner for the final spot.

But the Eastern Conference is far less defined. Yes, there are the regulars at the top of the table: Boston, Florida, Toronto, Carolina, and the New York Rangers. But owing to the wide-open nature of the Metropolitan and Atlantic Divisions, the final three spots are still very much up for grabs.

The Detroit Red Wings, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Philadelphia Flyers currently occupy those three positions, but a lot can change between now and the middle of April. The Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils both have the talent and time to make up the necessary ground to reach the postseason.

Detroit’s spot currently looks the safest. New Jersey’s situation is the most dire. But as we’ll delve into below, it’s worth considering the underlying factors that have gotten those teams (and the others listed here) to where they are. They can also help us try to spec out where all these teams will end up.

Before we begin, it’s worth taking note of the New York Islanders and Washington Capitals, neither of whom are listed here despite being just behind the Penguins in the Eastern Conference standings when going by points percentage.

Yes, it’s feasible that the Islanders or the Capitals could make the playoffs, but the odds of them doing so grow longer by the day. They have collectively allowed 60 more goals than they’ve scored this season, and their proximity to a playoff spot is based less on their own strengths than it is on the weaknesses of the teams listed below.

This is to say: Islanders and Capitals fans, feel free to tell me I was very wrong if your team does make it.

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings have the best standings position of any of the teams on this list. They’ve won six games in a row, propelling them into 11th place in the league and eight points up on the ninth-place New Jersey Devils in the Eastern Conference wild card race.

On paper, it’s easy to understand why the Red Wings are where they are. Lucas Raymond looks to be taking the next step toward stardom, Alex DeBrincat has fit in seamlessly, Patrick Kane has given the power play a boost, and Alex Lyon is proving yet again that he is capable of stealing games. At this point, it’d be a bit of a shock if the Red Wings didn’t make it — they’d have to fall off dramatically over the final six weeks of the season.

But there are warning signs. Despite their impressive plus-27 goal differential, the Red Wings rank near the bottom of the league in practically every predictive metric there is. They’ve been outshot, outchanced, and outplayed on a consistent basis, with goaltending and sky-high finishing papering over the team’s legitimate and significant defensive flaws. But it certainly isn’t unheard of for a team to ride a shooting percentage wave all the way to the playoffs and it’s not as though Red Wings fans won’t be happy with that outcome — Detroit hasn’t seen playoff hockey since 2016.

The Red Wings have banked 72 points through 59 games. They should still make the playoffs. But if the natural flow of regression begins to hit them in March, it could open the door for other teams on this list to take a run at their spot.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning are at an odd point in their championship trajectory. They won the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021, went to the Final in 2022, lost to the Toronto Maple Leafs (!!) in the first round of the 2023 playoffs, and are now one cold streak away from missing out entirely in 2024.

But that’s not all.

One of the most whispered-about truths in the hockey world is that this very well could be Steven Stamkos’ final year with the Lightning, the organization that drafted him first overall back in 2008. Although nobody with the Lightning is talking about trading their captain ahead of this year’s deadline, it says a lot that we’ve basically arrived at March without hearing much about progress being made between the two sides. Stamkos briefly tested the market the last time he was a UFA; how about now?

Stamkos’ situation is more of a problem for the summertime. Tampa’s biggest obstacle right now is the absence of Mikhail Sergachev, who fractured both the tibia and fibula in his left leg earlier this month. Without Sergachev in the lineup, that Lightning defensive group looks awfully underpowered beyond Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak. It puts Lightning GM Julien BriseBois in an unusual position — should he buy, knowing Stamkos’ future is uncertain, or should he stand pat and hope for the best?

One thing is for sure: Nikita Kucherov remains a game-breaking talent who can drag his team to wins. It’s never a good idea to bet against him — or, for that matter, Hedman, Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. But the depth just isn’t there with this Lightning team like it has been in years’ past. They currently sit in the second wild card spot with 69 points in 61 games.

Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers are the only team on this list to currently occupy a divisional playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, although that’s honestly more of a testament to how weak the Metropolitan Division has been this season. They’ve won 31 games and have lost 29, which somehow puts them five points up on the New Jersey Devils for third place in the Metro. Loser points are for winners.

Like many of the other teams on this list, the Flyers’ biggest issues largely stem from one position: defense. Rasmus Ristolainen and Jamie Drysdale are both hurt, which casts a shadow over GM Danny Briere’s ability to potentially flip sought-after pending UFA defenders Sean Walker and Nick Seeler ahead of next week’s trade deadline. If the Flyers want to sell and make the playoffs, they’re going to need to get creative.

Oh, also: Travis Konecny is now injured, too. The Flyers have officially classified the star winger as ‘day-to-day’, although head coach John Tortorella didn’t sound particularly confident when asked about Konecny on Tuesday. The Flyers badly need Konecny back as soon as possible — he’s been their unquestioned MVP all year long.

It’s going to be a juggling act for these guys. They’re ahead of schedule in their rebuild. Nobody expected the Flyers to be third in their division this year, even if it’s largely been due to other teams underperforming. They have good players, a good coach, and strong standing in the East. But if they do trade Walker and/or Seeler, their path toward actually locking down a playoff spot could become obstructed.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Even after winning three consecutive games, the math isn’t great for the Penguins. They’ve actually lost more games than they’ve won this year — no small feat for a team with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin — and their only current saving grace might be their four games in hand on the Flyers, who have seven more points.

Pittsburgh had been finding impressive new ways to lose before their current three-game winning streak. It certainly isn’t easy to place sixth in your division with a plus-16 goal differential and a controlling interest of the scoring chances and expected goals on a regular basis. Erik Karlsson has been strong, Marcus Pettersson has been fantastic, and the goaltending tandem of Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic has generally delivered. So, what gives?

A lot of it comes down to the team’s forward depth. Jake Guentzel has been as good as ever next to Sidney Crosby, but he’s now injured and may have already played his final game as a Penguin. And while Bryan Rust and Drew O’Connor have done their jobs, Reilly Smith, Rickard Rakell, Jeff Carter, and Noel Acciari certainly haven’t been as effective as they’ve shown they can be.

Kyle Dubas is in a tough spot. As long as Crosby is a Penguin — and he’s not going anywhere — there’ll be an expectation of winning in Pittsburgh. Sure, the Stanley Cup might not be on the menu anymore, but this is still a team with enough talent to make the playoffs. Last year, they didn’t. This year, they might not.

New Jersey Devils

What do you mean the Devils aren’t currently in a playoff spot? This is a team with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and a ton of other talented players. They won a playoff round last year against a New York Rangers team everyone figured could win the Cup. And now they’re five points out of a playoff spot and eight points back of the top team on this list.

The Devils’ problems are glaringly obvious. First and foremost, they don’t have a starting goalie. Their team save percentage has suffered as they’ve rotated between Vitek Vanecek, Akira Schmid, and Nico Daws, all of whom are currently in the .890s. It’s honestly been unfair to all three of those guys: Vanecek is a solid tandem guy but not a No. 1, while Schmid and Daws are both largely untested 23-year-olds. Their collective struggles fall more on Devils management for not addressing the situation.

Then, there’s Lindy Ruff. He’s an experienced and accomplished coach who led this Devils team to the playoffs last year. But it’s long past time for the Devils to try another tact. Timo Meier hasn’t worked under Ruff, who has also been hesitant to deploy promising rookies like Simon Nemec and Alex Holtz in high-leverage situations, opting instead for low-upside standbys like Curtis Lazar and Brendan Smith. It’s just not working.

Dougie Hamilton’s absence hasn’t made things any easier. The star defenseman has been out since November with a pectoral injury and the Devils have suffered greatly in his absence. But they haven’t moved to shore up the position beyond recalling Nemec. Truthfully, Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald hasn’t done anything at all, despite his rumored interest in adding a goaltender. We’ll see if he can break any ground between now and March 8.

The Devils are way too talented to slide back down into irrelevance. If they can swing a deal for, say, Jacob Markstrom, they could rocket back up into the mix. For now, they’re a distant ninth in the East with 64 points in 59 games — and, when going by points percentage, they fall to 11th. If the Devils can make it from all the way down here, they should have the upward momentum they need to go far in the playoffs.

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