The biggest questions facing the Eastern Conference’s top contenders
With the New York Islanders hot on the Philadelphia Flyers’ tail and the free-falling Detroit Red Wings struggling to lock up the eighth seed, the Eastern Conference playoff picture is hardly set in stone. Still, it’s been clear for months that the Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, New York Rangers, and Toronto Maple Leafs would make up more than half of the field.
The dropoff from the Leafs to the sixth-best team is considerable, and the odds of an outfit from outside the group representing the East in the Stanley Cup Final are negligible, but that does not mean the conference’s elite can afford to rest on their laurels. As the quintet spends the rest of their regular season sizing each other up and jockeying for home ice, they must also ask these important questions of themselves on the road to the Cup.
Boston Bruins: Can streaking Pavel Zacha save the day?
On paper, the Boston Bruins are one of the NHL’s elite teams, propped up by their NHL-best 95 points, top-eight scoring at either end of the ice, and world-class players David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Jeremy Swayman. In reality, panic is setting in at TD Garden. The B’s are 9th in points since the end of January, with a -3 goal differential and a middling 9-5-7 record in that time frame. Under playoff rules, the skid would bring them to 40-29 on the season. After a confusing deadline where the only additions of note were locker room guy Patrick Maroon and Columbus Blue Jackets castaway Andrew Peeke, the Bruins aren’t a safe bet to survive a round, let alone run the gauntlet in the playoffs.
The good news? Boston has identified a key contributor for the home stretch, and it’s not Maroon or Peeke. After a 57-point effort in 2022-23, many tabbed two-way centerman Pavel Zacha to take the baton from retiring legends David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron. No pressure. Zacha struggled to cope in his new role to start the campaign and lost the 1C job to Charlie Coyle, himself in the midst of a career season (career-high 23G in 69GP), after only a few months. Zacha, meanwhile, entered February with paltry scoring numbers (10G, 30P in 45GP) and near the break-even point of most metrics. Since being put back onto Pastrnak’s line, however, the former Devil has gone nuclear with 5 goals and 10 points in March alone.
With the Czech firing on all cylinders, Bruins coach Jim Montgomery is separating Pastrnak (41G, 96P in 69GP) and captain Brad Marchand (27G, 61P in 69GP) for the first time this season, giving his men a surprisingly well-rounded top six. Whether versatile forechecker Trent Frederic, ailing veteran James van Riemsdyk, or current linemate Danton Heinen finish the season on Zacha and Pastrnak’s left, a top-tier second-unit of Marchand, Coyle, and DeBrusk gives Montgomery as much flexibility as he’d had all year. Zacha’s late push might give the top-heavy Bruins enough juice to re-establish their identity in time for the playoffs.
Carolina Hurricanes: Can Evgeny Kuznetsov play the Brind’Amour way?
If nabbing Pittsburgh Penguins’ legend Jake Guentzel (52P in 50GP before the trade) was a home run by Carolina Hurricanes GM Don Waddell, his acquisition of mercurial centerman Evgeny Kuznetsov, to stick with the baseball analogies, ran the risk of overmanagement. Kuznetsov is a name brand whose talent is beyond question, but can he rediscover his form while adjusting to the physical rigors of coach Rod Brind’Amour’s structure? The answer will determine whether paying the 31-year-old $3.9 million AAV through 2025 was a shrewd gamble or a rare blemish on Waddell’s squeaky-clean record.
The optimistic prognosis of Kuznetsov’s fit with the Canes is simple enough; he’s a pure playmaker joining a team full of snipers like Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and, now, Guentzel. Carolina has not had a 50-assist player since Brind-Amour’s rookie season as coach and could use another playmaker on their uncharacteristically lethal power play. As for how Kuznetsov’s dreadful even-strength defense fits with Brind’Amour’s all-hands-on-deck attitude, it’s not hard to see why Waddell believes ‘Kuzy’ is better than he’s shown in recent years. The Russian was a fixture on a respectable Capitals PK and gained Selke consideration as a younger man. Free from off-ice distractions (the player assistance program cleared the forward on March 2), Kuznetsov can be that player again under a motivator of Rod the Bod’s caliber.
Then there are the cons. If this were last year, and Kuznetsov was a 55-point player fresh off a 78-point effort, his arrival in Raleigh would be without controversy. It isn’t, and he’s not. Kuznetsov has never been a play driver, but his opportunism usually made up for his inability to control scoring chances (>50% three times in 11 seasons, 42.65% before the trade). Now that his scoring pace has plummeted to 35 points, it’s fair to ask what he can offer a contender. The early returns are tough to read; his line with Guentzel and Martin Necas is dominating at even strength, but the former Stanley Cup hero has 2 points to show for it over five games, a reversal of his career norms.
Florida Panthers: Will they ever have a better chance?
The Florida Panthers are a vastly improved version of their 2023 vintage, themselves Wales Trophy winners, and that’s a scary proposition for the rest of the Eastern Conference. Yes, the Panthers of 2022-23 only just snuck into the postseason due to an underachieving regular season, but they were still a loaded team that got hot at the right time.
This year, veteran sniper Vladimir Tarasenko takes Anthony Duclair’s spot on the Sasha Barkov line, towering lefty Niko Mikkola replaces now-37-year-old Marc Staal opposite Brandon Montour, and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is playing his best hockey since arriving in Florida, last postseason notwithstanding. Sam Reinhart (48G, 2nd in NHL) and Gustav Forsling (NHL-best +48) have leveled up, Matthew Tkachuk has the fourth-most points (49) of any player since the New Year, and the Cats are on track for their second Presidents’ Trophy in three seasons. In other words, there are no weaknesses on the ice. Off it, dark clouds are fast approaching.
Reinhart and Montour, who has suddenly rediscovered his scoring touch (16P in 19GP since 2/1), are out of contract and playing at heavily discounted rates this season. With Forsling’s well-deserved extension set to kick in next season, GM Bill Zito must get creative to keep both players. When Carter Verhaeghe, the NHL’s 11th-most prolific goal scorer over the past two seasons, disruptive second-line center Sam Bennett, and ever-present blueliner Aaron Ekblad (second in all-time games by a Panther) see their contracts expire in 2025, things become that much more complicated. The Panthers are under pressure to win before the cap casualties mount up.
New York Rangers: Is Igor Shesterkin the Stanley Cup Playoffs’ biggest wild card?
The New York Rangers of 2023-24 are a known entity. Despite Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider’s enduring all-situations excellence and Artemi Panarin’s success (38G, 93P in 67GP) alongside 2024 All-Star Vincent Trochek and former No.1 overall pick Alexis Lafreniere, the Broadway Blueshirts have neither the superstar talent of the Panthers nor the smothering depth of the Hurricanes. Panarin and 2021 Norris Trophy-winner Adam Fox have the potential to dominate on any given night but cannot elevate this B+ group to championship levels. Only one player has that sort of influence over the Rangers’ fate: goaltender Igor Shesterkin.
Shesterkin’s play in 2023-24 has been a microcosm of his team’s, among the world’s very best one night and lost the next. That wild inconsistency was apparent during last week’s games; two nights after he shut out the Carolina Hurricanes, the Tampa Bay Lightning tagged Shesterkin for 5 goals, including an Anthony Duclair effort past the stranded Russian and into an open goal. It was the seventh time this season that Shesterkin has shipped 5+ goals.
Shesterkin’s ups and downs have covered longer stretches, too. After an ugly month of January, during which he went 4-5-1 and with an .863 save percentage, there were legitimate calls for veteran Jonathan Quick (15-5-2, 2.46 GAA, .916 SV%) to take top billing at Madison Square Garden. Then, ‘Shesty’ went on a rampage in February, posting a 7-0-0 record, 1.72 GAA, and .953 SV%. Both Shesterkins have been on display so far in March (2-2-1, 2 shutouts, 3.67 GAA in losses). Which guy will the Rangers get in the playoffs? If it’s the Vezina winner, look out. If it’s the shooting board, Quick’s late-career renaissance will not be enough to buoy an aging core.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Is there enough scoring to make up for everything else?
Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving did not make a play for any of the half-dozen 20-goal scorers available on the trade market. He couldn’t win the Chris Tanev sweepstakes and didn’t value Matt Dumba as a consolation prize. He was not involved in any efforts to upgrade his crease, nor did he move considerable salary off the books. Instead, Treliving traded for the sort of gristly playoff rentals Toronto has been infatuated with for years. The hodgepodge of capable bottom-of-the-lineup players, defensemen Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson, and center Connor Dewar will block shots, play hard, and do nothing to fix Toronto’s paper-thin scoring depth or plodding blueline footspeed.
That means, as ever, the burden falls on Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner (116 G, 245 P combined) to outscore the Maple Leafs glaringly apparent issues and generally sloppy play (10th-worst penalty kill, 16th in scoring defense). John Tavares’s omission from that list is no oversight; in the final year of his contract, Tavares is pacing for his lowest points total (62) since his rookie year despite strong two-way play and elite faceoff numbers. Tavares as Toronto’s second center was once a luxury necessitated by Matthews’s dominance; it is now a fitting designation.
Worse still, Tavares is easily Toronto’s fourth most dangerous forward despite his slide. Calle Jarnkrok, Matthew Knies, Max Domi, and Tyler Bertuzzi have all failed to crack the 15-goal mark despite ample top-six ice time. Domi, whose 35 points lead the group, is cashing in on just 7.2% of his shots. With T.J. Brodie and (recently) Lyubushkin shoehorned into top-four roles on defense and goaltender Joseph Woll struggling (1-2-0, 3.33 GAA) since his return from injury, it’s hard to see how Toronto can rely entirely on its offense with such shabby depth. It worked when they dismantled the usually stingy Flyers 6-2 last Thursday, but can that strategy buy the Leafs 16 wins against the world’s best? Despite Matthews’ historic pursuit of a 70-goal season, optimism is spread thin in the GTA.
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