The biggest questions facing the Western Conference’s top contenders
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are officially less than a month away, and the margin of error is nonexistent for the best teams in the Western Conference.
In the Central Division, the Winnipeg Jets, Colorado Avalanche, and Dallas Stars have played musical chairs with the top spot; whoever blinks first could go from a home-ice matchup with the upstart Nashville Predators to playing on the road against a 105-point powerhouse. Further west in the Pacific, the Vancouver Canucks seek to win their first President’s Trophy in over a decade but must ward off the gallant challenge of the Edmonton Oilers first.
Meanwhile, the Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights could present a grim first-round test for the winner of the five-way race for the No.1 seed; the Predators’ late-winter surge has sent them 5 points clear of the champs in seventh place.
With just over ten games left and everything to play for, these questions could define the season for the best in the West.
*Apologies to the Preds and L.A. Kings, who are not highlighted despite having all but locked up playoff berths. Not even the best postseason fields feature eight bonafide contenders, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which either team escapes the West.
Colorado Avalanche
How much more does Zach Parise have to give?
The Colorado Avalanche covered all their bases at the trade deadline. They needed a gifted center to round out a top-heavy top six, so they traded for Buffalo Sabres forward Casey Middelstadt. That cost them young D-man Bowen Byram, so they replaced him with Sean Walker of the Philadelphia Flyers, a short-term upgrade whose quick feet make him a perfect stylistic fit in Denver. Walker and the Avs’ defense runs small, so the team brought hulking, defensively sound forwards Brandon Duhaime and Yakov Trenin to cover the difference. For a team already in the hunt for its fourth-consecutive division crown, that sort of facelift can be enough to go all the way (again).
Unfortunately for the executive brain trust of Joe Sakic and Chris MacFarland, a new vacancy opened up just days later when Logan O’Connor underwent season-ending hip surgery. O’Connor had been playing alongside center Ross Colton and winger Miles Wood on a third line dubbed the “Roaring 20s” that used speed and physicality to wreak havoc in the offensive zone. Duhaime can skate and check but has limited offensive potential. That leaves 39-year-old Zach Parise as the new danger man on Colton’s wing.
Parise joined Colorado midseason and has scored respectably (4G, 7P in 17GP) given his modest ice time (13:48 on average). There’s a chance Wood and Colton can use their skating to create open ice for the wily veteran, who has never needed extra encouragement to shoot the puck; the Minnesotan had 36 goals over two seasons with the New York Islanders from 2021-2023. There’s also a possibility this line goes from a secret weapon (they controlled 57.19% chances with O’Connor) to an anchor; before they dominated chances 13-2 and picked up a goal from Colton against the hapless Blue Jackets, they had been out-chanced 11-13 and outscored 0-2 with Parise. If this feels like nitpicking, that’s because the Avalanche are on an 8-game win streak and have Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, and Val Nichushkin (4G, 8P in 5GP since completing the player assistance program) firing on all cylinders. Still, depth matters in the playoffs.
Dallas Stars
What’s going on with Jake Oettinger?
Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill has assembled as complete a roster as any executive in the league. On the blue line, emerging star Thomas Harley and trade acquisition Chris Tanev have partnered mainstays Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, respectively, allowing Ryan Suter, who was exposed in a top-four role last postseason, to operate in sheltered minutes where he can thrive. Further up the ice, a steady top unit (Robertson, Hintz, Pavelski), resurgent veterans (Seguin, Duchene), and emerging stars (Stankoven, Johnston) have provided the team with the NHL’s second-most prolific attack. The Stars are 20 skaters deep and kicking it into gear in a way they haven’t all season. Why haven’t they been able to seize control of the Central Division?
Though stiff competition from the Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche is a factor, Dallas’s biggest hurdle is the play of goaltender Jake Oettinger, a former BU star facing adversity for the first time in his young career. Where Igor Shesterkin, Juuse Saros, and Ilya Sorokin have been disappointments only by their ridiculously high standards, ‘Otter’ has legitimately struggled (3.00 GAA, .897SV%). The 25-year-old had a rough 2023 postseason and got the hook more than he’d like to remember. What initially looked like a corresponding early-season funk has stuck around for over 70 games. His porous numbers have left an excellent defensive group (seventh-fewest shots against per game) in the lurch, and recent trends are not encouraging.
Oettinger showed signs of life in February with his best statistical month of the season (6-2-2, 2.60GAA, .909SV%), and the addition of Tanev gave Dallas hope he’d turn his play around for good in time for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Instead, the American has imploded (3.41GAA, .860SV% in March) behind one of the NHL’s elite rosters. Dallas needs the Oettinger that stood on his head against Calgary for seven games in 2022 to go all the way. The Stars’ remaining schedule is full of cupcakes (sixth weakest remaining schedule), perhaps enough that last year’s fourth runner-up for the Vezina Trophy can rediscover his dominant best. If not, Nill’s best-laid plans will go awry.
Edmonton Oilers
Where does Adam Henrique fit?
There’s a reason the Edmonton Oilers parted with a first-round pick to acquire 34-year-old center Adam Henrique. They had struggled to produce scoring from their bottom six even after the midseason signing of grizzled vet Corey Perry and needed a third center to bounce Ryan McLeod to his preferred position on the wing. Adding Henrique would shore up their spine behind superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for the home stretch. There’s also a reason Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan were the more coveted options. Henrique’s footspeed is gone, and whether he can score outside the top-six role he occupied in Anaheim is unclear. So far, he’s done little to silence his critics.
Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch has deployed Henrique as his matchup center alongside defensively-minded players like Connor Brown, Derek Ryan, and, bizarrely, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Henrique is not getting on the scoresheet, which can take time in a new environment, but Knoblauch’s attempt to shoehorn him into a shutdown role has been a catastrophe. Even after the Oilers’ 8-3 beatdown of the Sabres last Thursday saw Henrique and his teammates out-chance Buffalo 12-4 during his minutes, the former New Jersey Devil is still controlling less than 38% of scoring chances, high-danger chances and expected goals for his new team. Once a high-end two-way option, Henrique isn’t exactly Guy Carbonneau these days.
The veteran centerman is not benefiting from the offensive usage he got in Anaheim, but he hasn’t forgotten how to play hockey. Knoblauch must shoulder much of the blame for his new player’s slow start. He has experimented with countless temporary lines since the trade. Even Henrique’s successful connection with Nugent-Hopkins and Perry from the Buffalo game feels pointless; the former will inevitably rejoin McDavid anyway. When ‘the Nuge’ reunites with poacher Zach Hyman and his captain on a slam dunk top line, veteran power forward Evander Kane will likely round out the top-six with Draisaitl and Warren Foegele, who’s having a breakout season. That leaves McLeod, Henrique, and Perry without dance partners. The sooner they start playing together consistently, the more chemistry they’ll develop. Consistency on the lineup card for the surging Oilers could precede consistency between the whistles for Henrique.
Vancouver Canucks
How much of a problem is Elias Lindholm’s brutal offense?
With their stars firing and puck luck solidly on their side, Vancouver Canucks President of Hockey Operations Jim Rutherford and GM Patrik Allvin realized this could be the year and strengthened their lineup accordingly. Two months after poaching Nikita Zadorov from Calgary to round out an already physical defense, the ‘Nucks called the Flames again, this time for center Elias Lindholm, the most coveted forward on the market. In theory, the former 82-point scorer and Selke runner-up would slot in as the second-line center, and another impact forward, either Brock Boeser (36G) or J.T. Miller (90P), could join Elias Petersson’s unit. In practice, Lindholm has struggled so badly on offense that he’s losing millions as a pending UFA.
Lindholm had chances besides Petterson and Miller, but after a decent start to life in BC (4G and 6P in his first 8 games), he finds himself entrenched on the third line with just 3 points in his last 13 games. With pedestrian defensive numbers as coach Rick Tocchet’s matchup guy (41.35% of high-danger chances, team-low -5), Lindholm hasn’t done anything right as a Canuck except win faceoffs at an elite clip (59.9%). That’s important, but Rutherford and Allvin didn’t part with Andrei Kuzemnko and a first-rounder to win defensive zone draws. The Swede is not merely unlucky; he’s scoring on 16.1% of his shots but has been so invisible in the offensive zone he’s managed just 31 of them since the move. That level of anonymity suggests that Lindholm, a three-time 64-point player, has lost all confidence.
He would be better off alongside youngster Nils Hoglander and Petterson, with whom he played well over a small sample size after the trade. The line outscored opponents 5-2 in six games, and with Pius Suter excelling in a defensive role alongside Miller and Boeser, it’s hard to see where else Lindholm can rehab his Canucks career. Tocchet may like the idea of fitting a 2024 All-Star onto each of his top-three lines, but if Lindholm isn’t going to elevate Vancouver’s bottom-six, deploying him alongside the heavy hitters is the Jack Adams frontrunner’s best bet at jumpstarting his anemic production.
Vegas Golden Knights
How does deadline feeding frenzy affect the champs’ chemistry?
Frustrating as it is that Vegas captain Mark Stone will miraculously heal right around April 22, the Golden Knights still managed to use his LTIR status to acquire an embarrassment of riches. By the time the dust had settled on the trade deadline, the Knights had added rocksteady top-four option Noah Hanifin, stud power forward Tomas Hertl, and middle-six sniper Anthony Mantha to complete one of the deepest rosters in recent memory. There has been much discussion on whether what they did is legal (it is) or ethical (not so much), but Vegas should not presume more talent equals more success. How will they get this group on the same page with so little time to develop chemistry?
If Mantha and Hanifin were the only additions, they would have a ~20-game grace period to acclimate, and this would be a non-story. By the time Hanifin, off to a great start (4A, +4 in 8GP), and Mantha, off to a poor one (1G, 2P in 8GP), are settled into their new surroundings, though, more lineup changes will become necessary. With Hanifin slotting in next to top righty Alex Pietrangelo, what becomes of the latter’s longtime partner Alec Martinez, who is only now returning from surgery? Will he upset the established pairs of McNabb-Theodore or Hague-Whitecloud? Can coach Bruce Cassidy afford to scratch a player with his pedigree? After Hertl, injured since before arrival from San Jose, debuts, will he, current second-line center Chandler Stephenson, or longtime stalwart William Karlsson (24G, 46P in 58GP) be pushed to the wing?
If Vegas was rolling the Pacific Division like they did to begin the season, they could answer those questions in a winning team’s stress-free, confident environment. As is, they do not have that luxury; long-term injuries to Shea Theodore, Adin Hill, Karlsson, Jack Eichel, Martinez, and, now, Stone have conspired to halt their momentum. Just 23-20-3 since Dec. 1st of last year, they’re 2 points adrift of an automatic playoff spot despite original misfit Jonathan Marchessault’s (38G in 70GP) lethal form. Their busy trade season, ostensibly a plus, might introduce even more turmoil, especially without the cap wiggle room necessary for Stone to gel with his new teammates.
Winnipeg Jets
Can elite depth prop up a one-dimensional top line?
The Winnipeg Jets are down to third in the race for the Central Division after a pair of ugly losses to the Devils and Islanders (10-4 combined score), but have the sort of team makeup that makes them a tough postseason out. Connor Hellebuyck and backup Laurent Brossoit have been unbeatable in goal. Nikolaj Ehlers has clicked impossibly well with trade acquisitions Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli on the second line (17 combined points in 7GP). Captain Adam Lowry’s towering connection with Nino Neidereitter and Mason Appleton makes life miserable for opponents at either end of the ice, controlling 59.92% of high-danger chances. Josh Morrisey’s defensive strides have given Winnipeg the dominant all-situations blueliner every winning team needs, and Dylan Demelo (+38, second in NHL) is excelling as his ever-present partner.
The problem in Winnipeg is that though the supporting cast is excellent, the leading men are very much offensive specialists. Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor are in the top 25 of NHL scoring since the latter’s breakout season in 2019-20, but they lack the two-way sensibility of many modern star players. When Rick Bowness paired Connor’s wicked shot and Scheifele’s elite instincts with the playmaking of Gabe Vilardi, the group played wretched defense that wouldn’t fly in the postseason. They failed to dominate even 40% of scoring chances and expected goals as a group.
Vilardi is out long-term with an enlarged spleen, and versatile penalty killer Alex Iafallo has coaxed break-even D from Scheifele and Connor in his stead. Iafallo doesn’t score quite enough to push Vilardi out of the top six on his return, though, and the only player who can pull his weight on offense and get five-on-five results from Connor and Scheifele is Ehlers. Can Bowness afford to give up a good thing on the second line to keep his stars afloat at even strength? Maybe he should drop Connor, who is somehow -4 despite being a 30-goal-scorer on the league’s second-best defensive team, from the top line altogether when Vilardi comes back; the latter was brilliant beside Scheifele and Ehlers while Connor nursed a broken foot earlier this season.