The Edmonton Oilers have an Achilles’ Heel – and must address it before Trade Deadline

Credit: Stuart Skinner (© Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports)

The goal here isn’t to minimize Kris Knoblauch’s accomplishments. But humor me for a few minutes.

The Edmonton Oilers fired Jay Woodcroft on Nov. 12 following a 3-9-1 start to their 2023-24 season. Fair. When you have Stanley Cup aspirations and boast the best player on the planet, that record won’t cut it. But the Oilers led the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 over that stretch. They even sat seventh in expected goals against. They were obviously better than their record. The biggest reason for their hideous start: they sat dead last in the NHL with an .864 team save percentage. Jack Campbell was playing himself out of the NHL, and Stuart Skinner couldn’t make a save, either.

Enter Knoblauch. From the moment he took over through the NHL All-Star break, the Oilers were peerless, putting together a 26-6-0 record punctuated by a 16-game winning streak, tied for the second longest in NHL history. They led the league in 5-on-5 xGF/60 over that stretch – just as they did under Woodcroft. They ranked ninth in xGA/60 over that stretch – and were seventh under Woodcroft.

What really changed? Someone stopped the damn puck.

2023-24 Oilers, pre All-Star Break

	Points %	5on-5 xGF/60	5-on-5 xGA/60	Overall SV%
Woodcroft	.269 (31^st)	3.67 (1^st)	2.90 (7^th)	.864 (32^nd)
Knoblauch	.813 (1^st)	3.25 (1^st)	2.44 (9^th)	.918 (2^nd)

I acknowledge the Oilers were much improved defensively under Knoblauch over those first 32 games, almost half a goal better. But the biggest reason they won 26 of those games: Skinner was on a heater. He posted a .925 SV% over that span.

Since the all-star break? The Oilers have played eight games and won half, going 4-3-1. What’s changed? Take a wild guess.

2023-24 Oilers, post All-Star Break

	Points %	5on-5 xGF/60	5-on-5 xGA/60	Overall SV%
Knoblauch	.563 (14^th)	3.02 (4^th)	2.23 (3rd)	.864 (30th)

The Oilers remain an elite offensive and defensive club, ranking among the league’s best. But suddenly, their goaltending reverts to what Woodcroft was receiving, and poof, wins are harder to come by again.

The Oilers have all the makings of a juggernaut. They’re arguably the most talent-rich team in the NHL, and it’s possible GM Ken Holland augments that group even further leading up to the March 8 Trade Deadline. They’re known to be after another top-six forward and have interest in deepening their D-corps, too. But if they don’t take a hard look at their crease, none of it is going to matter.

Skinner was so good between mid-November and late January that it felt like the Oilers had found their answer. But he’s gone five consecutive games with a sub-.900 save percentage since the All-Star break. Suddenly, he’s reminding us of the starter who got pulled four times across two playoff rounds last spring. Skinner 25, is talented and has proven capable of providing elite goaltending for extended stretches. But he’s also extremely inconsistent. His save percentages by month this season: .863, .888, .915, .953, .871.

Do you want your No. 1 goaltender to be a human roulette wheel entering the postseason? The Oilers have an Achilles heel. Chasing a big-name forward like Jake Guentzel or a stalwart blueliner like Chris Tanev would be exciting, but Holland’s first priority should be to secure a fallback option in net. Calvin Pickard has done an admirable job backing up Skinner in place of Campbell, but Pickard has primarily been an AHL goaltender in recent years and has never played a minute of postseason hockey in the NHL.

I’m not saying Edmonton needs to chase a star like Juuse Saros and Jacob Markstrom. Goaltending is fickle enough in the year 2024 that an obscure No. 2 is almost as likely to lead you to glory as an established name brand – see Hill, Adin – so why pay the high price? But the Oilers need to consider kicking tires on names like James Reimer or Jake Allen. The latter could be an ideal fit. Allen backed up Jordan Binnington on the Stanley Cup winning 2018-19 Blues, and Allen quietly owns a .924 career SV% in the postseason. His $3.85 million cap hit through 2024-25 is obviously a problem; the Habs would have to retain 50 percent for a trade to make any sense. But the Oilers must be willing to get uncomfortable and squeeze another experienced netminder onto their payroll.

You only get so many chances to go all the way with generationally great players. The Oilers need to treat every season as Cup-or-bust for the remainder of McDavid’s and Leon Draisaitl’s primes. And their standings fluctuations clearly show that, no matter how well they play, goaltending has defined them all season, for better or worse.

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The Edmonton Oilers have an Achilles’ Heel – and must address it before Trade Deadline

2023-24 Oilers, pre All-Star Break

2023-24 Oilers, post All-Star Break

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