The most over-honored players in the NHL today
When a hockey player calls it quits, they leave great memories, stinky gear, and a public record of their career. The memories and odors fade. But it’s the achievements that stand the test of time. Three-time All-Star. Norris Trophy winner. Hall of Famer. Each honor is written in permanent marker. But sometimes the honors just don’t match the lifetime body of work.
Award voting, after all, is a subjective exercise based on one season. Or in the case of the All-Star Game, a few months. Jim Carey won a Vezina over peak Dominik Hasek, for crying out loud. That’s why our lists won’t be fueled by opinion, nor use the ubiquitous ‘over-rated’ tag. To do this right, every active NHL player with 200 games played was systematically put to the test. The goal? Identify the most over-honored players in hockey. Part II of the series will capture the most under-honored.
How were the lists built? Each time a player crossed a certain performance threshold in an individual season, they banked value. The total of that value created the player’s Expected Award Points. Expected Award Points were compared to actual Award Points, using the legend in the chart below. The gap determined who was most over-honored. Note that any player already in the Qualified tier of PPS, my Hockey Hall of Fame worthiness metric, was exempt.
While it might seem like hockey has too many awards (no offence, Mark Messier), the same superstars monopolize most of the big prizes and vote share. This leaves much of the league under-honored and few over-honored. So, you’ll notice everyone on this list was, or continues to be, an excellent NHL player — they’ve simply earned prestige beyond their play.
#10. Taylor Hall
Expected Award Points: 35; Award Points: 45; Over-Honored by 10
Hall’s signature 2017-18 season delivered a first-team all-star nod and Hart Trophy. It’s that MVP award that lands him on the list, his emergence out of a crowded field that year bestowing an honor typically reserved for all-time greats. Incredibly, every eligible Hart-winning skater except Tom Anderson (1941-42) has been elected to the Hockey Hall of Fame. Despite an fine career to date, Hall has no clear path to induction.
#9. Brady Tkachuk &
#8. Clayton Keller
Expected Award Points: 9; Award Points: 20; Over-Honored by 11
While we can all feign outrage on the All-Star Game format and selections each year, let’s be honest — it’s long been for host cities, kids, casual hockey fans, mascots, and corporate sponsors. Enter Tkachuk and Keller. While both are fantastic, marketable players, labeling them “four-time all-stars” is a bit much. Okay, it’s way too much — they’ve each hit the 70-point plateau once.
The pair have now played in more All-Star Games than six-time Norris finalist Victor Hedman. Team representation makes sense for the league and fan bases, but excluding so many true superstars shreds the pages of the NHL’s record book.
#7. Jonathan Quick
Expected Award Points: 57; Award Points: 70; Over-Honored by 13
Outside the two famous Cup runs, Quick’s overall impact with the Kings has always been divisive. If flags fly forever — and many Leafs fans with arthritis will gladly tell you they do — then Quick is a Hall of Fame-worthy sensation. Yet, his year-to-year play has been mostly “mid,” as the kids say. With only a couple of great seasons in 17 years, his two Vezina finalist nods, two Jennings Trophies, Smythe, and fifth-place MVP finish, among other honors, offer a generous likeness of Quick’s full career portrait.
#6. Mathew Barzal
Expected Award Points: 11; Award Points: 25; Over-Honored by 14
Barzal is both an elite playmaker and puck carrier, yielding three All-Star Game appearances and a well-deserved Calder Trophy. But the honors don’t square up with one 20-goal season, a so-so defensive record, and a career absent even a single down-ballot MVP vote. When we check the Award Points from his loaded 2015 NHL Entry Draft cohort, we see the disconnect: Jack Eichel (23), Mikko Rantanen (21), Sebastian Aho (18), Kyle Connor (8). Each player has at least 83 goals(!) and 49 points more than Barzal, yet all have been honored less.
#5. Corey Perry
Expected Award Points: 60; Award Points: 75; Over-Honored by 15
Now’s not the time to evaluate Perry’s legacy, so we’ll keep it brief. He’s been a key cog on rosters with overwhelming team success at every level. It’s just not a career in the tier of players you’d expect to have both an MVP and Rocket Richard Trophy. That’s Ovechkin, Crosby, McDavid, and Matthews. Yes, it’s Perry, three of the greatest players in NHL history, and a fourth guy well on his way.
#4. Nick Suzuki
Expected Award Points: 0; Award Points: 15; Over-Honored by 15
Suzuki’s spot here says more about Montreal’s recent standing in the league than him. He’s a young, developing center handling the captaincy of an Original Six hotbed well by all accounts. But even ardent Habs fans would agree that a three-time all-star with 87 goals well into his fifth NHL season isn’t evoking the spirit of Guy Lafleur. For comparison, Mark Stone, seven years Suzuki’s senior and the modern template of a fully developed, two-way weapon, has played in just one All-Star Game.
#3. Adam Fox
Expected Award Points: 45; Award Points: 65; Over-Honored by 20
Fox is an all-world star by any measure, thriving on Broadway from the start. Through last season, his PPS Player Card below shows his score already at 234 vs. the Hall of Fame standard for modern defensemen of 269. So, what gives? Well, Fox’s honors the last three seasons are a lifetime’s worth — while still young enough to be covered under his parents’ health insurance. At age 25, he’s an All-Star Game and a second-team nod from matching P.K. Subban’s entire career. Check out Fox’s incredible run:
- 2020-21: Norris winner; 1st-team all-star
- 2021-22: Norris 5th-place; All-Star Game
- 2022-23: Norris runner-up; 1st-team all-star; All-Star Game
#2. Linus Ullmark
Expected Award Points: 13; Award Points: 38; Over-Honored by 25
In October 2022, Ullmark was 29 years old and finally settling into a steady but unspectacular career. He’d never firmly held a starter’s crease for a full season, let alone received an award vote. Then he had a near-perfect season. Vezina. Jennings. First-team all-star. All-Star Game. 10th-place in MVP voting. Tied for second-best adjusted save percentage (.935) ever. Umm, let’s skip over the playoffs. While Ullmark warranted every honor bestowed upon him in 2022-23, the performance remains a massive outlier — his one-season award haul is typically reserved for goaltenders with Hall of Fame résumés.
#1. Ryan O’Reilly
Expected Award Points: 18; Award Points: 48; Over-Honored by 30
‘The Factor’ has been a coveted piece for NHL lineups before the iPad was invented. Advanced metrics have also been smitten with the man for a decade now. But we’ve got a couple of major awards (Smythe, Selke), three All-Star Games, and a Byng Trophy heaped on a player who’s peaked at 28 goals and topped 64 points just once. His company in that exclusive Smythe/Selke club is Toews, Yzerman, and Gainey — a trio named to the 100 Greatest NHL Players of All Time. When you add in the Byng, O’Reilly founds his own club. He’s a terrific, reputable player, but one with an overstocked trophy cabinet.
Just missed the cut: 11. Seth Jones; 12. Johnny Gaudreau; 13. Troy Terry; 14. Bo Horvat; 15. Dylan Larkin
Tune in to Part 2 next week — the Most Under-Honored players in the NHL today. Any guesses who cracks the list?
Award information from Hockey-Reference.com; Expected Award Points through 2022-23 season.
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