The Negotiator: How Much Term For Johnny Gaudreau’s Next Deal?

Second in a season-long series of “The Negotiator,” where we’ll tap into the front office experience of Daily Faceoff‘s Steve Greeley, who most recently served as assistant general manager of the Buffalo Sabres.

The Calgary Flames and Johnny Gaudreau reportedly engaged in contract extension talks over the summer, only for Johnny Hockey to skate into the season on the final year of his deal. The Salem County, N.J., native can become an unrestricted free agent on July 13 for the first time in his career. After spending the first eight seasons of his career in Cow Town, many believe he’d like to move closer to home, though Gaudreau has said publicly he is open to re-signing in Calgary.

The big question: How much term will Gaudreau garner on his next contract?

Johnny Gaudreau

Team: Calgary Flames
Position: Left Wing
Age: 28
Career: 522 GP, 170 goals, 326 assists, 496 points, 0.95 PPG
Last Season: 56 GP, 19 goals, 30 assists, 49 points, 0.88 PPG
This Season: 2 GP, 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points, 1.0 PPG
Current Contract: Final year of 6-year, $40.5 million deal ($6.75 million AAV)

Analysis: Gaudreau will undoubtedly be looking for max term and dollars, as this will likely be the last big contract of his career. Although last season was shortened, there was no drop off in his point production, hitting 0.88 points per game last year compared to 0.83 the season before in 2019-20.

Still, teams will no doubt map out and project Gaudreau’s career arc in terms of production and what a potential drop off might look like as he hits 30 and beyond. A max, eight-year deal would sign him through age 36. The argument for Gaudreau would be that he still moves well and is not showing any sign of slowing down. The argument against mega term for Gaudreau is one he’s heard his entire career – that his small frame may become more susceptible to injury as he continues on in age. He has been extremely durable in Calgary, missing just 15 games over his first seven seasons.

One of the big measuring sticks as Gaudreau’s camp compares him to the market is his points-per-game run. He has twice topped the point-per-game mark in a season, finishing tied for seventh (with Nathan MacKinnon) in 2018-19 with 99 points.

Not many of the post-pandemic deals signed for wingers are direct comparables, as Kirill Kaprizov and Brady Tkachuk are bets on the future and Alex Ovechkin is maybe the best goal scorer of all-time. He is also more of a playmaker than some of the big time goal-scoring wingers that signed pre-pandemic.

Suffice to say, Gaudreau will want to be paid accordingly. He is certainly on track to do so. He would be among the highest point-per-game players to hit the market in recent years. Given his recent company on the stat leaderboards and that he is significantly more productive on a points-per-game basis than Gabriel Landeskog, who signed an eight-year, $56 million deal ($7 mil AAV) this past offseason, he will likely be well compensated, though Taylor Hall’s recent deal does provide a little pause.

If the Flames are unable to work out a deal with Gaudreau and also fall out of the playoff picture, Gaudreau holds the cards this trade deadline with a modified no-trade clause in which he can submit five teams where he’d accept a trade.

Comparables:
(post-pandemic) LW Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado: Age 28, 0.75 PPG – 8 years x $7 million AAV
(pre-pandemic) LW Max Pacioretty, Vegas: Age 30, 0.72 PPG – 4 years x $7 million AAV
(pre-pandemic) LW Jamie Benn, Dallas: Age 28, 0.88 PPG – 8 years x $9.5 million AAV
(pre-pandemic) LW Jeff Skinner, Buffalo: Age 27, 0. – 8 years x $9 million AAV

Potential Calgary Flames Ask: 6 years x $7.25 million AAV
Potential Gaudreau Camp Ask: 8 years x $9 million AAV

The Negotiator Says: 7 years x $7.75 million AAV

For more from The Negotiator, check out the other player payday files on Daily Faceoff:

New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox