The Negotiator: John Klingberg
This is part of a season-long series of “The Negotiator,” where we’ll tap into the front office experience of Daily Faceoff‘s Steve Greeley, who most recently served as assistant general manager of the Buffalo Sabres.
Klingberg is currently in the final season of a seven-year contract worth a total of $29.75 million ($4.25 million AAV) that he signed with the Dallas Stars prior to the 2015-16 season.
Klingberg’s been a steady performer throughout his career with the Stars, but turns 30 next summer.
The question: How much will Klingberg’s next contract be worth?
John Klingberg
Team: Dallas Stars
Position: RD
Age: 29
Career: 480 games – 65 goals + 262 assists = 327 points
Last Season: 53 games – 7 goals + 29 assists = 36 points
Current Season: 2 games – 0 goals + 0 assists = 0 points
Current Contract: Final year of 7-year, $29.75 million deal
Current AAV: $4.25 million
Analysis: When an impending UFA wants to stay with their current team, there is an urgency from both the team and player to get a deal done before the season. However, agreeing to terms is often easier said than done.
In recent years we have seen top UFAs come to terms just days before the season began, like Aleksander Barkov and Florida, and we have seen situations where it drags out until the final seconds of June, as was the case with Steven Stamkos and Tampa Bay. Klingberg’s camp is yet to put a hard stop on contract talks, which is a clear indication that this player would be thrilled to come to terms with Dallas on a lengthy extension. But when the Stars and Klingberg can agree to an extension remains to be seen.
The 2020-21 season for Klingberg, statistically speaking, was a slight rebound from the 2019-20 season and right on par with his excellent 2018-19 season. One would think that Klingberg is confident that he will maintain his offensive production in a full 2021-2022.
Unfortunately for Klingberg, the first game of the Stars’ season did not go to plan, when he was injured in a very awkward fall and collision behind Dallas’ net. The good news for Dallas and Klingberg is that he is now back in the lineup and only missed four games. The injury on Opening Night was a scary reminder that for any UFA, an injury can be right around the corner and having any extension in hand can be very comforting.
Over the last three seasons Klingberg is tied for 16th in points per game among defensemen and 28th overall in time-on-ice for defensemen, all while making a very team-friendly $4.25 million per season. It goes without saying that at 29 years old Klingberg will want to make what likely his final contract a very PLAYER friendly deal.
Klingberg 2020-2021:
- .68 points per game (13th in NHL for defensemen)
- 22:42 TOI (39th in NHL for defensemen)
- 17th for defensemen in PP time-on-ice with an average of 3:01 per game
Klingberg 2019-2020: - .55 points per game (27th in NHL for defensemen)
- 22:10 TOI (48th in NHL for defensemen)
- 35th for defensemen in PP TOI average @ 2:33
Klingberg 2018-2019:
- .70 points per game (14th in NHL for defensemen)
- 11th in NHL for PP points by defensemen
- 24:32 TOI (11th for defensemen)
- 18th for defensemen in PP time-on-ice, averaging 2:59 per game on the power play
Agent Comparables:
All three deals are post pandemic:
Seth Jones, LD, Chicago: Age 27, 0.49 PPG (career) – 8 years x $9.5 million AAV = $76 million
Dougie Hamilton, RD, New Jersey: Age 28, 0.56 PPG (career) – 7 years x $9 million AAV = $63 million
Darnell Nurse, LD, Edmonton: Age 26, 0.39 PPG (career) – 8 years x $9.25 million AAV = $74 million
Agent Comparables:
The agent is likely using Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse and Dougie Hamilton as the comparables in preparation for all extension talks. Nurse was working on his extension while 25 years old, not 29, and I see that likely as a spot that Dallas will be pushing back on. From an age and production standpoint, Seth Jones is where I believe the agent is really trying to make his case.
Seth Jones (8 years x $9.25 million per year)
- 28 years old when extension kicks in
- .50 points per game (36th in NHL) vs .68 Klingberg (13th) during the 2020-21 season
- 25:14 time-on-ice (5th in NHL for defensemen) vs. 22:42 Klingberg (39th) during the 20-21 season
- 48th overall for defensemen PP time-on-ice, averaging 2:00 per game vs Klingberg 16th with 3:01 per game during the 2020-21 season
Darnell Nurse (8years x $9.5 million per year)
- 27 years old at time extension kicks in
- .64 points per game vs. .68 for Klingberg (13th in NHL) during the 2020-21 season
- 25:38 time-on-ice per game during the 2020-21 season
- 65th for defensemen in power play time-on-ice at 1:23 per game vs. Klingberg, who was 16th at 3:01 per game during the 2020-21 season
Dougie Hamilton (7years x 9.0)
- 28 years old at time of extension
- 0.76 points per game vs 0.68 for Klingberg (13th in NHL) during the 2020-21 season
- 22:43 time-on-ice vs 22:42 for Klingberg (39th in NHL) during the 2020-21 season
- 15th for defensemen in power-play time-on-ice at 3:03 per game vs Klingberg, who was 16th with 3:01 per game during the 2020-21 season
Team Comparables:
Morgan Rielly: (8 years x 7.5 million per year)
John Carlson: (8 years x $8 million per year)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8 years x $8.25 million per year)
The Morgan Rielly deal cam at just the right time for the Dallas Stars. Rarely does the team owning a player’s rights have to pay over market on an AAV for a player. Had Rielly hit the market, I think he would have received a higher AAV, but Rielly is comfortable in Toronto and the 8th year, paired with the NMC, was likely enough to convince him that he did not need to tempt the waters of free agency.
Potential Dallas Stars Offer: 7 years x $7.75 million per year
Potential Klingberg Camp Ask: 8 years x $9 million per year
The Negotiator’s Projection: 7 years at $8.25 million per year
Miro Heiskanen is locked in with an AAV of $8.45 million and I believe Klingberg will come in below that number. How does Dallas get Klingberg to stay below $8.45 million? Well, they entice him with a longer NMC and they can offer a higher signing bonus than Heiskanen received, which was only $3 million. Unless Klingberg gets traded, Dallas is the only team in league that can offer eight years, so the seven-year offer is not an insult — it is just Dallas looking at father time and saying we think seven years is fair.
In the end I think Klingberg comes in a lot closer to the John Carlson deal than the Seth Jones deal. The lovely tax laws of Texas could be in the Stars’ favor, as all parties will try to find what is the take-home total for John Klingberg. The factors that I think will keep the AAV closer to $8.25 is the fact that Dallas also has both Heiskanen and Lindell locked up. Lindell actually averaged more time-on-ice per game for Dallas than Klingberg.