The Ottawa Senators symbolize everything that has changed about NHL contracts

Forgive me, Hockey Father, for I have sinned. When 20-year-old Ottawa Senators forward Tim Stutzle agreed to an eight-year contract extension Tuesday, I immediately panned the $66.8 million deal.

“I think it’s a terrible deal.”

That was my gut reaction in response to a Daily Faceoff colleague’s opinion that Stutzle’s extension will prove to be a good move for the Sens. I was the old man yelling at the sky.

But you know what? The more I think about it, my co-worker is probably right. Stutzle’s new contract will see the veteran of 132 NHL games make $8.35 million a year once the deal begins in the fall of 2023. That’s in line with other top forwards around the NHL.

But I think the root of my consternation really just comes from the new way of doing things in the NHL, in which teams lock up young players to long-term deals based on projections rather than proof.

Last year, in his sophomore NHL season with Ottawa, Stutzle posted 58 points in 79 games. Good, but not staggering. The young German showed well on the power play, dishing out 19 assists. And as the 2021-22 season progressed, Stutzle spent more time playing his natural position of center.

There is zero doubt in my mind that Stutzle will be an impact player in the NHL for quite some time. But has he really earned that new contract? I don’t think so. No matter what the analytics say, this trend of projecting what a player may become while handing out tens of millions of dollars is difficult for me to wrap my mind around.

It’s happening more and more often. Players like Nick Suzuki of the Montreal Canadiens and Nico Hischier of the New Jersey Devils are two recent examples. Both received contract extensions worth more than what they’d shown in their careers prior to the signing.

Those types of deals are what I consider ‘hopers.’ Teams have their fingers crossed that the player will continue to develop and his output will surpass the value of the contract. And by offering young talent big money at a young age, the franchise avoids paying a premium down the road on an unrestricted free agent.

Teams have been increasingly willing to gamble on a player’s second contract, especially in comparison to a UFA close to 30 years old. A 20-something player is less likely to be injured. And there isn’t the fear of production dropping as the player gets into the final years of the contract.

There’s also the familiarity factor. The Senators are a great example of what can happen when players want to keep the band together. Defenseman Thomas Chabot started the wave in 2019 when he agreed to an eight-year deal to remain in Ottawa. Then in September of 2021, Drake Batherson signed on for another six years in Canada’s capital.

But I think the turning point for the Senators franchise happened just over a month later when Brady Tkachuk agreed to a seven-year extension and was named the team’s captain at just 22 years of age.

I really believe Tkachuk’s signing changed the entire trajectory of the franchise. Now players want to stay. Josh Norris agreed to an eight-year deal for $64.6 million and waxed poetic about the potential of his team. It’s pretty clear to me that the players in Ottawa believe they can achieve something special together.

For the Senators fanbase, the signings are huge. It shows that the team – ownership in particular – is committed to icing a quality product and chasing the Stanley Cup. It gives the fans – and Ottawa business community – something worth investing time and money in.

For Senators GM Pierre Dorion, it has to be a breath of fresh air. Retaining homegrown draft picks is the key to success in an ever-younger NHL. Dorion is smiling more often. And he should be after adding sniper Alex DeBrincat, goaltender Cam Talbot, and veteran Claude Giroux this past offseason. They’ve seriously upgraded their offense and goaltending. If the Senators can be better defensively, they should contend for a spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

What Stutzle’s deal effectively does is protect Ottawa from the possibility that he starts posting 100-point seasons and is suddenly worth more than $10 million a year. By locking him in at just over $8 million, the deal could end up being a value.

But that’s what I want to emphasize. It could be a value. The contract isn’t a sure bet by any stretch. I think Stutzle is capable of posting 90 points in a year. His skill is palpable and he’s already found success in the NHL as a teenager. That’s rare. But he is still finding his way at even strength. And there’s significant room for growth defensively. Which are normal things for any 20-year old player.

Our behind the scenes discussion at Daily Faceoff about Stutzle’s contract eventually led to predictions of when the tipping point will be. In other words: when the $8.35 million cap hit will match his output. My colleague said three years. I said five. Seven years from now we’ll have an answer.

From the player’s perspective, I would have been just like Stutzle. Give me the Montblanc pen and let me sign that contract as fast as possible. Making more than $60 million dollars before the age of 30 will bring generational wealth. If Stutzle invests wisely, his nest egg could be in the hundreds of millions by the time he’s 60.

It used to be that teams made players earn every penny. They had to prove their worth before they got paid. It was an old school, reward-based approach. But the system was archaic. Teams didn’t have the analytics to make projections.

What I fear is the entitlement that can come along with big contracts at a young age. Power has become very centralized on a team like the Senators. They’ll soon have four players under the age of 26 hovering around the $8 million mark.

And that’s where leadership is so important. Handing out stacks of cash to young adults, especially pro athletes, can be a ticking time bomb. Ottawa will rely heavily on Tkachuk to keep his teammates focused. And Claude Giroux will be a fantastic veteran addition to that locker room.

I came from an era where players expected to sign two, maybe even three, contracts before their first big pay day arrived. Obviously that’s changed. And while a part of me still thinks it’s ridiculous to pay a premium for an unproven commodity, I understand why it’s happening. With the NHL salary cap, cost certainty is paramount. Long-term contracts provide that stability.

But the dollars still have to work. If Stutzle’s future output stagnates at his 2021-22 pace, the new contract won’t be looked upon favorably.

Norris is in a similar situation: the former 19th overall draft choice in 2017 scored 35 times during the 2021-22 season. But his playmaking ability – 20 assists last year – leaves something to be desired when compared to other players making close to his $7.95 million AAV. That dollar figure is in the point-per-game territory.

I’m not sold on either contract. But I also realize my initial reaction was extreme. I really like Stutzle’s skill set. And his off-ice demeanor is impressive for such a young player. Stutzle is comfortable in front of the media, a rare quality for any 20-year old. I think it shows confidence.

After years of top players hitting the eject button out of Ottawa, the Senators have adopted a progressive approach to retaining talent. The franchise has taken some calculated risks. There’s no guarantees. But if these contracts hit, Ottawa will be laughing.

The Senators have one of the NHL’s best stables of young talent. The potential exists for great things down the road. And now it’s time for the players to prove their worth.

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The Ottawa Senators symbolize everything that has changed about NHL contracts

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