The Toronto Maple Leafs took a risk going with Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov – but it’s paying off

Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

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OK, everyone. Myself included. It’s time to apologize to Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas.

When the Leafs decided to move on from Jack Campbell, who looked like a potential Vezina Trophy candidate for the first half of 2021-22, to instead utilize a tandem with two goalies coming off of brutal seasons, most questioned if the move was worth the risk for a Leafs GM that hasn’t built a team capable of moving out of the first round.

In came Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov. Murray struggled when healthy in Ottawa and even went down to the AHL at one point. Samsonov, a 2015 first-round pick, ended up going unqualified by the Washington Capitals after struggling to earn the No. 1 role away from Vitek Vanecek. That left an uneasy feeling in the mouths of Toronto fans who were wanting them to hold on to Campbell.

It’s now December. Campbell has been terrible in Edmonton, and Toronto’s duo sit near the top of most notable goaltending categories. The complete opposite of what most expected.

On Tuesday against a strong Dallas Stars group, Murray had perhaps the best goaltending performance of anyone this season. According to MoneyPuck.com, Murray had a goals saved above expected at 5.979, the highest in a shutout effort since stats like that were tracked. MoneyPuck’s “deserve to win o’meter“, Dallas sat at 85.8 percent, pummeling Toronto around the net.

But Murray was spectacular, as he’s been throughout the year, and now he sits fifth among goaltenders at 5-on-5 save percentage with at least nine games played at .937 with a fantastic 4.22 goals saved above average. Other than an ugly first game against Montreal, Murray has been lights out with a 5-1-2 record, saving Toronto’s bacon on a few occasions.

But after Murray went down with a leg injury ahead of his second start this year, Ilya Samsonov stepped in and put up some of the best numbers early on. He has a 7-2-0 record through nine games, including wins in his first four starts. He was pulled after getting injured on Nov. 5, which kept him out of action for nearly a month, but then he had a spectacular return against San Jose on Nov. 30 and seemingly washed away any concerns. It’s been Murray’s net ever since, and it seems like they’ll keep leaning on him to lead the charge, but if Samsonov can play as good as he is as a backup – especially on a $1.8 million AAV deal – then he’s done exactly what he needs to do to prove he’s still capable of solid workloads.

And it’s not like we can say the Leafs’ defense core is taking the brunt of the slack, either. Morgan Rielly is out long-term. Jake Muzzin might not return this season. TJ Brodie has missed nearly a full month. Nearly every other defenseman has been hurt at some point this season. They’ve used 12 defenders already and we’re just past the quarter-season mark. So the goaltending – whether it be Murray, Samsonov or even Erik Kallgren – has had to be incredible.

While it’s hard to pinpoint what’s really going on here, this duo intrigued me before the season began. You had two goalies that proved in the past they were capable of big things when playing at max ability. But so much about goaltending is mental, and when everything’s going wrong, it gets to you – just ask Campbell or Jacob Markstrom. But give them a carrot to chase – an undetermined starting role for two former NHL starters – and they’ll go after it with everything they’ve got. It’s not like a goaltender needs any motivation to go for broke, but having a 1A/1B tandem promotes competition and can bring the best out of them.

Is it sustainable? Are the Leafs playing with house money? Are they flying high with adrenaline right now? Can they actually survive without key pieces of the defensive core long-term? I don’t think anyone knows. Both Murray and Samsonov are beating the general consensus with their play. Like, heck, if Murray keeps this hot streak, we might have to start having outside Vezina Trophy discussions, right? His advanced stats suggest it’s a possibility. And, heck, Samsonov’s numbers would make him a starter on more than half the teams in the league, too.

The Leafs pay Murray and Samsonov a combined $6,487,500, with Samsonov set to become a RFA at season’s end. The value they’ve gotten with a 12-3-2 record out then has been incredible. Kallgren’s numbers drop the team’s save percentage down a few pegs, but you typically don’t expect a ton out of your third goalie, anyways. It’s not his fault the Leafs continued to falter in overtime, either.

So many wanted Dubas gone after moving forward with a risky goaltending duo. That’s the nature of hockey in Toronto. But maybe it’s time to give him credit for moving forward with who he believed in from the get-go, even if it meant potentially putting his job on the line.

The Toronto Maple Leafs took a risk going with Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov – but it’s paying off

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