The ultra-competitive Central Division playoff race is already taking shape

Credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports

There might not be a more fascinating group of teams in the National Hockey League this season than the eight in the Central Division.

At the top, there are two of the league’s very best teams in the Colorado Avalanche and the Dallas Stars. At the bottom, there’s Connor Bedard and the Chicago Blackhawks. All three of those teams are worth watching right now for obvious reasons.

But then there are the five teams caught between those extremes, and they might just be the most interesting of all. At least one of them is guaranteed to make the playoffs, and as many as three could — especially if the Pacific teams continue to flounder. Barely two weeks into the 2023–24 season, that battle has already begun to take shape.

The Minnesota Wild, Winnipeg Jets, Arizona Coyotes, Nashville Predators, and St. Louis Blues all entered this season with the goal of competing for a spot in the postseason. It’s an improbable group of vastly different teams, including a recent Stanley Cup champion, a team with nearly $15 million in dead cap, and another that has missed the playoffs 10 times in the last 11 years.

Nobody expects Chicago to come anywhere close to the playoffs this year — save for Bedard, that team has very few redeeming qualities — but the other seven teams in the Central could all realistically lock down a spot this year. Let’s take a moment to check in on where those middle five teams currently stand with the season less than a month old.

Minnesota Wild

Record: 3–2–1, 3rd Central
Leading scorer(s): Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello (all 9 points)

Most onlookers probably pegged the Wild as the likely third Central Division playoff team entering the season, and they’ve done a solid job of living up to those expectations. The top-line winger duo of Kaprizov and Zuccarello is off to a rollicking start, combining for 18 points through six games. Rookie defenseman Brock Faber has also been a major story in the early goings, logging huge minutes in team captain Jared Spurgeon’s absence.

But the Wild are already running a lean operation with Zach Parise and Ryan Suter still eating up $14.7 million of space underneath the team’s salary ceiling, and the injuries to Spurgeon and Matt Boldy certainly haven’t helped matters. Spurgeon was just placed on LTIR, although he’s back skating and should be able to make a return to the lineup in the next few weeks; Boldy is week-to-week with an upper-body injury sustained during Minnesota’s second game of the season.

One player being counted upon to take a step forward in this time of need is 2020 first-round pick Marco Rossi, who hasn’t looked out of place in his six games with the Wild this season. The 22-year-old center has two goals thus far and is being relied upon to play between two jack-of-all-trades wingers in Marcus Foligno and Freddy Gaudreau.

Neither Filip Gustavsson nor Marc-Andre Fleury has gotten off to an ideal start in goal, with both currently rocking sub-.900 save percentages in the early goings of the season. There’s still plenty of time for them to get into a groove.

We like Minnesota’s chances of making it in the Central. They’ll be in tough to displace Dallas or Colorado for a home-ice spot, but the Wild have enough top-end talent (when healthy) to win plenty of games.

Playoff chances: 85%

Winnipeg Jets

Record: 3–3–0, 4th Central
Leading scorer(s): Mark Scheifele (7 points)

Who saw those matching contract extensions for Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck coming before the start of the season? Not us. We also definitely didn’t envision Hellebuyck posting a decidedly subpar .881 save percentage through his first five appearances of the 2023–24 campaign. (He still has a winning record!)

The Jets are a bit of a strange team. Their attendance is sagging in a big way, but they haven’t really changed much at all from their previous iterations. Scheifele, Hellebuyck, Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey, and Adam Lowry are all still here. But maybe it’s that stagnancy that’s the problem for Jets fans. Either way, they’re off to a decent start to the year, although certainly nothing to write home about.

Coming off a nice 4–2 win over the Blues (more on them later), the Jets are one of six teams in the league with a points percentage of exactly .500. That sounds about right for them. They’re a reasonably deep team, but a lot of their top-end guys aren’t quite as good as fans might’ve hoped they’d become a half-decade ago.

Cole Perfetti continues to show flashes of the dominance that made him a top-10 pick coming out of junior, but he has yet to put it all together in Winnipeg. Gabe Vilardi is out for a while with a knee injury. Alex Iafallo has been a nice fit in the top six, but he’s obviously no Pierre-Luc Dubois. The Jets were always going to have a hard time winning that trade on the ice this season.

It’s likely going to come down to who’s going to score for this Jets team. They have good pieces, but their depth isn’t quite on the same level as that of other teams in the Central. It isn’t hard to imagine the Jets making the playoffs once again this year, but are they really going to fare better than they did last year against Vegas?

Playoff chances: 60%

Arizona Coyotes

Record: 3–3–0, 5th Central
Leading scorer(s): Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz (both 7 points)

This year’s Coyotes team is vastly improved compared to its predecessors, but it still might not be enough to overcome the likes of Minnesota or Winnipeg for a division or wild card spot. It remains to be seen, though. The Coyotes are off to a solid start and are one spot behind the Jets by virtue of the ROW standings tiebreaker. Otherwise, they’re neck-and-neck.

Whereas the Wild and Jets have struggled to get saves from their goaltenders to start the year, Coyotes starter Karel Vejmelka has been one of the hottest netminders in the league in his first four appearances. The right-catching Czech is 2–2–0 with a sparkling .943 save percentage to start the year — all for a paltry $2.725 million cap hit. He’s been sensational.

The Coyotes’ top line has also been strong, with pivot Barrett Hayton doing the dirty work while Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz rack up a ton of points. Rookie forward Logan Cooley has been highly valuable on the power play, although his 5-on-5 play needs work. And that’s a sentiment that easily carries over to the rest of the team, which has relied heavily (arguably too much so) upon its red-hot 28.6% power play for offense in the early goings of the year. Sean Durzi has fit right in as the club’s new PP quarterback.

Guys like Hayton, Cooley, and Lawson Crouse are bound to pick up more points at even strength before long, but Keller and Schmaltz have proven that they can carry the mail on offense for this team in the time being. The Coyotes’ systems are sound and the results have been favorable to this point. Don’t count them out.

Playoff chances: 40%

Nashville Predators

Record: 3–4–0, 6th Central
Leading scorer(s): Tommy Novak, Filip Forsberg (both 5 points)

Talk about a team that lacks star power. No offense to Forsberg, Roman Josi, and Juuse Saros, but the Preds’ lineup is pretty darned bare beyond those three players — and, at age 33, Josi’s best years are likely behind him.

But in an interesting twist, the Predators have remained in the mix in the first two weeks of the season while receiving contributions from players up and down their lineup. Offseason acquisition Ryan O’Reilly has been particularly impactful, collecting four points thus far while posting a splendid 5-on-5 expected goals share of 65.11% (via Natural Stat Trick). That’s good for second-best on the team behind Novak.

ROR turns 33 in February and is in the first season of the four-year, $4.5 million-AAV deal he signed with the Predators on July 1. After looking like a shell of himself at times with the Blues last year, O’Reilly is very much back to his old ways in Nashville. It’s a welcome development for a Predators team in desperate need of difference-makers at every position.

Under new GM Barry Trotz, Nashville is in a transitional phase. It probably wouldn’t be the worst thing for them if they missed the playoffs this year, but that doesn’t mean the players on that Preds team won’t do their best to get there. With new head coach Andrew Brunette running the show, their underlying results have been firmly above-average (albeit in a very small sample of games).

If one of Luke Evangelista, Jusso Parssinen, and Philip Tomasino can turn the page and become a 40-point guy, the Preds might be able to sneak in. Saros will need to be at his best.

Playoff chances: 20%

St. Louis Blues

Record: 2–2–1, 7th Central
Top scorer(s): Robert Thomas (4 points)

The Blues are in desperate need of a refresh. Not unlike the Calgary Flames in the Pacific Division, this is a talented team with good players who just haven’t gelled with each other since the start of the 2022–23 season. (Hey, what about a trade involving those two teams?)

In an unexpected twist, Jordan Binnington has seemingly turned back the clock to the 2019 Stanley Cup Final in the early goings of this season, posting a .945 save percentage through his first four outings. That’s an increase of 51 points from the .894 he managed over 61 games in 2022–23. Binnington isn’t going to stay in the .940s all year, but it’d be a huge boon for this St. Louis team if he could return to being a reliable .910+ guy.

But … this Blues team simply has far too much money tied up in players who are no longer high-end contributors. Torey Krug, Nick Leddy, Colton Parayko, and Justin Faulk collectively make $23.5 million for the next three seasons; they’ve combined for one goal and one assist while absolutely bleeding chances through five games this year. Brayden Schenn and Kevin Hayes both have exactly one assist in five games. Only one player on the entire team (Brandon Saad) has multiple goals.

If not for Binnington, the Blues might not have a win this year. In their two victories, they’ve been outshot by a combined total of 66 to 46. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Blues have the fourth-worst share of 5-on-5 scoring chances in the NHL, ahead of only Chicago, San Jose, and the New York Islanders. That’s rough company.

The Blackhawks will almost certainly not make the playoffs this year, but the Blues aren’t far ahead of them. At this point, it’s starting to look like matter of when, not if, head coach Craig Berube loses his job. But that won’t be enough to fix the major issues this Blues team has with its construction.

Playoff chances: 5%

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