They won’t admit it, but the Americans are the favorites to win the 4 Nations Face-Off

Credit: Jun 27, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Auston Matthews appears on a red carpet before the start of the 2024 NHL Awards at Fontainebleau Las Vegas. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

LAS VEGAS – Finally, it feels real. Best on Best international action featuring the world’s elite players became a bit more tangible Friday when Canada, USA, Sweden and Finland each named their first six picks for the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off.

A decade has passed since any true bragging rights were established between the two nations. When the gold medals slid around Canadian necks at the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Carey Price was the stalwart in goal. Shea Weber was one of the rocks on defense. Of the 24 players who made that trip for Canada, 14 are retired – 15 if you count unofficially inactive Jonathan Toews. Three have been out of the game long enough to be inducted to the Hall of Fame.

It’s thus no exaggeration to say we truly won’t know which team will be the favorite next February when they compete in a round-robin followed by a Final between the top two finishers. It’s hardly a forgone conclusion that Canada, despite boasting generational icons in Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and so on, will remain the undisputed international hockey champ. Especially when it has by far the weakest goaltending pool of the four teams, eventually having to choose between the likes of Stuart Skinner, Adin Hill, Jordan Binnington and Marc-Andre Fleury.

There’s a pretty strong case to be made that Team USA is in the driver’s seat. They have the world’s best goal scorer in Auston Matthews; the reigning Norris Trophy winner in Quinn Hughes; a fresh Stanley Cup winner in Matthew Tkachuk. You know you’re in a good spot when Connor Hellebuyck wins the Vezina Trophy on Thursday and doesn’t even get named as one of the American six on Friday. He has three serious challengers in Jake Oettinger, Thatcher Demko and Jeremy Swayman. American GM Bill Guerin has the luxury of waiting on his goalies.

Matthews and Hughes were on hand at the Encore Hotel in Vegas Friday afternoon, hours before the 2024 NHL Draft at Sphere, to discuss the tournament. They were smart enough not to offer up any bulletin board material and declare themselves favorites, of course.

“I’ll leave that for you guys to decide,” Matthews said. “I think it’s tight. All four teams have great players. I think in situations and tournaments like this, it’s kind of who can come together and be a team as quickly as possible.”

“When you’re playing for your country, everyone’s going to be playing to the 110th percentile,” Hughes said. “And we’re going to be bringing our absolute best. It’s like the playoffs, so the desperation level is going to be really high, so anyone can win, especially with the teams they have.”

Even if they won’t publicly admit it, the Americans have an on-paper edge almost everywhere. They have easily the best stable of goaltenders. In their First Six alone, they have two Norris Trophy winners on defense in Hughes and Adam Fox, with another absolute horse in Charlie McAvoy. And to echo Matthews’ point about the importance of teams developing chemistry quickly: the Americans have existing bonds dating back to their days centralizing with USA Hockey’s National Team Development program.

“You’re with each other for two years and you become extremely close,” Matthews said. “I’m still really tight with a lot of guys that I played with there. It’s just a unique program. You just get extremely close to the guys. Even though you go your separate ways and on your individual teams, you always keep in touch.”

Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk were USTNDP linemates. Hughes played with eventual shoo-in Brady Tkachuk in the program. The Americans also should have the distinction of multiple family bonds on the team. Quinn will almost certainly be joined by brother Jack Hughes and perhaps even Luke Hughes, while Brady and Matthew will represent the Tkachuks. There won’t be a closer-knit team in the tournament, and that’s just one more advantage on top of perhaps being the most talent-rich of the four nations right now.

The American men haven’t held the title of hockey’s best since 1996, when, as Hughes put it, “old-timers” like Chris Chelios were patrolling the blueline on the victorious U.S. World Cup team. But it’s entirely possible that they’ve been the top hockey nation for half a decade now. It simply hasn’t been put to the test. But that will finally change beginning with the 4 Nations Face-Off and continuing with the 2026 Olympics in Milan.

“It’s kind of like, I want to get back in the gym now and make sure that I have a great season and I’m ready to go,” Hughes said.

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They won’t admit it, but the Americans are the favorites to win the 4 Nations Face-Off

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