Top 10 restricted free agents of 2022: Part 2 (1-5)

This is the second instalment of a two-part piece in which I’m counting down what I view as the 10 most critical restricted free agent negotiations to watch in the NHL this off-season. In Part 1, I profiled Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars, Tony DeAngelo of the Carolina Hurricanes, Jesper Bratt of the New Jersey Devils, Josh Norris of the Ottawa Senators and Brock Boeser of the Vancouver Canucks. Each of these young stars presents their team with a significant challenge: how to make a deal with term and money that will fit into the team’s salary cap structure, all while projecting the player’s future production, taking into account arbitration rights and UFA eligibility and watching the market involving the other RFAs.

Those five players are going to be challenging for their teams, but these next five are going to be downright painful. Here are my top five most critical and impactful RFA negotiations of the summer:

5. Andrew Mangiapane, LW, Calgary Flames

Mangiapane’s stats are identical to Norris’, with 35 goals and 20 assists, so the agent for each player will be watching the other agent’s deal closely. Norris actually accumulated the points in 16 fewer games and is younger, so he probably represents more long-term upside for the Sens than Mangiapane does for the Flames. However, Mangiapane has the advantage of having arbitration rights, and in any long-term deal, more of his years will be UFA-eligible years, for which teams are generally expected to pay a premium. Plus, he will be a UFA after the 2022-23 season, so the Flames won’t want to risk a one-year arbitration award. All things being equal, Mangiapane might be in line for a long-term deal at an AAV slightly higher than Norris’.

But all is not equal and the Flames are in a pickle. As I wrote about several weeks ago, the Flames’ off-season signing to-do list includes two players on this RFA list plus 115-point UFA Johnny Gaudreau. If the Flames are able to sign all three, one or more (and likely all three) will need to take less than their market value to keep the gang together. Plus, Mangiapane is in somewhat the same situation as Bratt, in that Mangiapane had close to 200 NHL games under his belt before his goal scoring exploded this year. The Flames may argue that some of his production can be attributed to the high-octane play of his teammates, and they may be reluctant to offer a contract with significant term until he replicates his scoring exploits. Mangiapane’s total point numbers probably aren’t high enough to warrant the real big money, but a 35-goal scorer is still a 35-goal scorer, and those don’t grow on trees. In arbitration, the Flames are probably looking at a number in the $4.5-$5 million range on a one-year award. Put all these factors together and it’s going to be very complicated. I see a shorter-term compromise contract coming for Mangiapane, and even that will take some roster gymnastics by Flames management. My projection: 3 years, $5.33M per year.

4. Patrik Laine, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets

For most of Laine’s career, he has been an enigma wrapped inside a riddle. He began his career with the Winnipeg Jets, enjoying a 36-goal rookie campaign that saw him in the running for the Calder Trophy all season with eventual winner Auston Matthews. Laine followed that up with a 44-goal season and a strong playoff run. The next two seasons in Winnipeg, Laine was productive but mercurial, and the relationship started to sour. Traded to Columbus during the 2020-21 season, Laine had an average season at best, and it seemed like maybe we’d already seen the best of him. The Blue Jackets extended him to a cautious one-year contract at $7.5 million, a deal that indicated they weren’t convinced which version of Laine they were getting. Laine proved to be dynamite this year when healthy, scoring 26 goals in 56 games (a 38-goal pace over 82 games). He has always been a streaky scorer, and on his February hot streak, he looked as dangerous as any player in the game. He’s still only 24, so could it be that the best is actually yet to come for Laine? Columbus doesn’t have a ton of offense, so the Jackets need him to be their superstar. I would expect a deal of at least mid-term length, with an AAV right around his current one. My projection: 4 years, $7.5M per year.

3. Kevin Fiala, LW/RW, Minnesota Wild

Fiala is going to be rewarded handsomely this off-season. The only question is whether his new contract will be with the Wild or another team. The 25-year old had 33 goals and 52 assists for a career-best 85 points, including a late-season streak in which he scored 24 points in the team’s final 13 games. The Wild would love to re-sign him but may not have the cap space to fit him into their plan with the dead money from their Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts starting to hit their cap next season. The Wild do have some time to figure things out. If a contract or trade is not completed by the June qualifying offer deadline, the club will almost certainly extend Fiala his qualifying offer of $5.1 million, matching the amount of the one-year contract he signed for this past season on the day before his arbitration hearing was scheduled. Tendering the qualifying offer will give the Wild additional time to sign or trade the player before the scheduling of a 2022 arbitration hearing. They could even allow an arbitration process to unfold through to award, assess the arbitrator’s decision and, if not to their liking, simply walk away from Fiala, making him an unrestricted free agent. That’s a little-used provision of the CBA because no team wants to walk away from a player of that caliber without recouping assets, but it is a possible avenue. Fiala’s point totals have steadily improved each season, and he will have the upper hand in an arbitration setting. At one point in the season, I wrote an article forecasting his arbitration case as being in between the Pavel Buchnevich and Sam Reinhart deals, i.e. something in the low $6 million. However, Fiala’s torrid finish probably puts him above Reinhart and closer to $7 million. If he stays with the Wild, I think it’s a one year-deal again. If he gets moved, I think the team that gets him will roll out the red carpet. My projection: 1 year, $6.5M per year or 7 years, $8.5M per year.

2. Jason Robertson, LW, Dallas Stars

Robertson has scored 125 points in his first 128 NHL games, including a 41-goal season this year. His 0.97 point per game average through his entry-level contract puts him in elite company. That rate is better than the entry-level scoring averages posted by Leon Draisaitl, Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Sebastian Aho, Mathew Barzal or Elias Pettersson, to name a few of the league’s recent young stars who excelled in their ELCs. If the Stars were to bridge Robertson, he would be an easy candidate to sign the highest bridge deal ever, exceeding the three-year, $7.35 million per year Pettersson deal. However, I see the Stars wanting to cement their franchise player for as long as possible, and I think both sides can look at the deals of Kirill Kaprizov (5 years, $9 million per year) or Mikko Rantanen (6 years, $9.25 million per year) as solid comparables. With the absence of state income taxes, the Stars will have an advantage in how far their dollars will stretch for Robertson, making me think they can get Robertson at Rantanen’s AAV, but for more years. My projection: 8 years, $9.25M per year

1. Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Calgary Flames

Tkachuk has been described as a unicorn – the type of player that can do everything well, from scoring big goals to getting under the skin of his opponents to dropping the gloves. He had 42 goals, his 104 points were good enough for eighth in NHL scoring this season, and he is still just 24 years old. Of the players above him in the scoring race (excluding Gaudreau and Jonathan Huberdeau, who need new deals), Steven Stamkos is the lowest paid at $8.5 million per year, and that deal is six years old. Unless Tkachuk agrees to take a little bit of a discount to help Calgary sign his friends Gaudreau and Mangiapane, it’s likely Tkachuk will be looking for eight figures, not seven. His brother, Brady, held out to get $8.2 million per year, and his highest goal total was his rookie season’s 22 (although he was pacing toward 25 in last year’s pandemic-shortened season). The bottom line is that Tkachuk could easily be in for an Artemi Panarin-esque $11.6 million per year deal. I think he likes his situation in Calgary enough to take less. Either way, once he signs, the Tkachuk family will claim their spot on the throne of NHL sibling earnings, as I discussed in an earlier article on Daily Faceoff. My projection: 6 Years, $10.0M per year.

So there you have it. My top ten RFA deals to watch. There were other candidates to choose from – Sean Durzi and Adrian Kempe of the Los Angeles Kings, Victor Olofsson of the Buffalo Sabres, Noah Dobson of the New York Islanders and Ilya Samsonov of the Washington Capitals, to name a few. But these 10 formed a pretty solid list that will be interesting to watch unfold.

Depending on term and internal discussions that none of us are privy to, I may be wildly off on some of my projections, but there a couple of things I know for sure. Securing your RFAs at the most reasonable number possible goes a long way to building out the team you want, and until the ink is dry, there will be a lot of sleepless nights for the person charged with getting the deals done.

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Chris Gear joined Daily Faceoff in January after a 12-year run with the Vancouver Canucks, most recently as the club’s Assistant General Manager and Chief Legal Officer. Before migrating over to the hockey operations department, where his responsibilities included contract negotiations, CBA compliance, assisting with roster and salary cap management and governance for the AHL franchise, Gear was the Canucks’ vice president and general counsel.

Click here to read Gear’s other Daily Faceoff stories.

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Top 10 restricted free agents of 2022: Part 2 (1-5)

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