Top 10 Rocket Richard Trophy candidates for 2023-24

Credit: Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews (© Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports)

We’ve come a long way from Rick Nash, Ilya Kovalchuk and Jarome Iginla.

No disrespect to those immensely talented players. But hockey was a slog when they tied for the 2003-04 Rocket Richard Trophy with…41 goals apiece. Woof. That number still stands as the lowest league-leading total in a non-shortened NHL season in the last 50 years.

Today? A superstar can take our breath away with the first 60 goal-season in a decade only to watch two other players eclipse 60 the very next season. League-wide offense bottomed out 20 years ago at the peak of Dead Puck, but in 2023, scoring per game has reached a 30-year high. So when we’re projecting the top snipers in the league for 2023-24, we can realistically envision multiple 50- or 60-goal scorers, and we can’t even rule out a 70-goal scorer. Let your imagination run wild.

Who are the top candidates to lead the league in goals this coming season? Consider this group of 10 scintillating scorers, with current Betano odds included.

1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (+220)

McJesus finally flicked the God Mode Goal Scorer switch in 2022-23. It felt like he was capable of exploding for this type of goal production any given year, and he simply willed it to happen last season, going off for 64, the second-highest total in any season this millennium, along with 153 points, which were the most by any player in almost three decades. McDavid’s career-best goal total constituted a 20-goal jump over his previous high and came with the highest shooting percentage of his career, but he also fired the puck at by far the highest rate of his career, averaging 4.29 shots per game. The gains in the latter category should offset regression in others and keep him solidly north of 50 goals again – at worst. Another 60-goal campaign is well within reach. And, honestly, nothing he does surprises us at this point, so we can’t even laugh off 70.

2. Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (+500)

Matthews is the greatest pure scorer of his generation. Since he debuted in 2016-17, he lords above the rest of the league in goals, and his per-60 rate places him even further above the pack. If he was playing 22 minutes a night rather than 20, he might have more than two Rocket Richard Trophies to his name. But after he went off for 60 goals in just 73 games the season before last, Matthews tumbled to 40 in 74 last season. Because Matthews tends to play fewer games than the other elite scorers, having missed 17 over the past two seasons, he has a lower goal-scoring floor than his top-tier competition if anything goes wrong. Last year, his shooting percentage dipped to a career-low 12.2 as he pushed through some nagging physical ailments. But if Matthews’ body is right, he’s the only player on the planet who only needs 70 games to lead the league in goals.

3. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers (+700)

If you want the safest pick for guaranteed top-five goal production at worst? Draisaitl is the play. He has finished between second and fourth in the NHL in goals in five consecutive seasons. He is the most accurate shooter in the game today, with a staggering career conversion rate of 18.1 percent. He has also missed a grand total of four games in his past five seasons combined. Working against Draisaitl is the fact he has never led the league in goals. He’s a consistently elite sniper, but it seems at least one other superstar hits a higher peak every year. He’s a strong Rocket Richard candidate in that he’s a lock to rank among the league leaders, but he’s not the best candidate to lead the league outright.

4. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins (+800)

‘Pasta’ is piecing together a Hall of Fame career trajectory. He’s a two-time first-team all-star, he won the 2019-20 Rocket, he’s finished top-two in goals twice and he buried a career-best 61 goals last season while also leading the league in shots on goal with 407. He’s one of the truly elite snipers of his generation. Holding him out of the top three Rocket bets in 2023-24: the supporting cast. He made magic on the Czech Line with David Krejci and Pavel Zacha last season. Previously, Pastrnak soared on the Perfection Line with future Hall of Famers Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. With Boston’s lineup decimated for 2023-24, Pastrnak will likely play with Zacha and…James van Riemsdyk? Jake DeBrusk? It’s possible Marchand ends up on the top line too, of course, but Boston likely wants to spread out its top talent across more than one line. Pastrnak remains a safe bet for one of the league’s highest goal totals, as he’s a sublime talent who can produce with anyone, but his goal ceiling probably shrinks a bit after all Boston’s summer turnover.

5. Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche (+1400)

On top of the 55-goal supernova last season, Rantanen averages 47 goals per 82 games over his past three seasons. He’s sometimes overshadowed by superstar teammates Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, but Rantanen is an all-world scorer in his own right. He’s smack in his prime at 26, and it’s worth noting his ice time spiked to a career-high 22:13 per game last season. As the Avs begin to lose core contributors due to cap constraints in their post-Stanley Cup years, their roster construction becomes more top-heavy. Rantanen is thus likely to maintain those TOI gains. The increased volume will only mean more scoring opportunities.

6. Tage Thompson, Buffalo Sabres (+1700)

Unlike the five names listed above him, Towering Tage is attached to a still-ascending offense. The high-octane Sabres finished third in the league in goals last season, and with the likes of blueliner Rasmus Dahlin and center Dylan Cozens still improving and countless other exciting prospects on the way, this team has not yet peaked. It’s fair to wonder if Thompson actually has peaked; he broke out late, remember, so he’ll turn 26 before October is up. That’s not to say he can’t maintain his new superstardom, but it might mean Thompson will top out at a goal-scoring number close to his career-best 47 from 2022-23. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and project 50. He’s a unicorn, showing a unique agility in an enormous body that occasionally calls to mind Mario Lemieux (I said occasionally. Calm down). I’m not convinced opponents have an answer yet for Thompson’s specific skill set.

7. Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars (+1700)

How spoiled are we as fans of the game? Robertson is yet another superstar posting the kinds of eye-popping numbers that seemed unattainable for any non-McDavid player half a decade ago. Robertson is the Stars’ first 100-point scorer since they left Minnesota in the early 1990s. His shot generation, individual scoring chance generation and expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5 have all climbed in each of his seasons to date. At 24, he’s just young enough to conceivably have one more mini level-up in him. Do we get a 50-60-110 type of season from Robertson in 2023-24? It doesn’t feel like a stretch given his steady evolution to date.

8. Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens (+6400)

Note the odds for Caufield. He’s not projected by the oddsmakers to finish anywhere near the top 10. I believe that’s a mistake – and that Caufield is the best long-shot Rocket futures bet you can make. He’s played 83 games since fellow Short King star Martin St-Louis took over as Habs head coach in winter 2022 – and buried 48 goals. Forty-eight. Caufield still only 22, and he has shown elite-grade goal scoring pedigree at every stop of his career. He clearly has not delivered his peak NHL season yet. The caveat, of course, is the reason his odds are so low: he hasn’t played more than 67 games in a season yet. He was demoted to the minors in 2021-22 and suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last year. For Caufield to contend for the Rocket, he has to show he can produce over the course of a full NHL schedule – and stay on the ice. I say he does it in 2023-24.

9. Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils (+1700)

Hughes has arrived as the franchise-altering superstar that was promised when the New Jersey Devils picked him first overall in 2019. He went off for 99 points in 78 games last season and, given he’s still only 22, I could easily see him adding another 10 or 15 to that total and cracking the league’s top three in points this season. Hughes is a dangerous all-around offensive weapon whose prolific shot output gives him a high goal-scoring floor. He buried 43 last season, and it’s difficult to imagine him scoring any fewer than 40 this season. Hughes, however, is an all-around puck distributor rather than a pure goal scorer. He doesn’t need to lead the league in snipes to be an MVP-caliber player. He’s also a low-percentage finisher relative to other superstars, carrying a career shooting percentage of just 11.4. Even though that number partially reflects his snakebitten first couple seasons, he only sat at 12.8 last year. If he can up that number, 50 goals are within reach.

10. Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild (+3400)

Kaprizov buried 47 goals during his sublime second season, and while he “only” scored 40 in Year 3, he did so in 67 games. His pace actually improved to 49 goals. He’s a superstar in every sense of the word, a bull to knock off the puck, blessed with great hands. The reason to keep him down in 10^th on the Rocket list isn’t so much the missed time to injury last season but rather the lack of an elite center to play with. Imagine what he could do if the Wild could acquire or develop one. Even if he’s playing with Ryan Hartman, though, Kaprizov has shown the talent to challenge for 50 goals. He’ll get there one of these years.

Other Rocket Richard Trophy candidates to watch: Alex Ovechkin, Nathan MacKinnon, Tim Stutzle, Elias Pettersson, Brayden Point, Kyle Connor, Timo Meier, Alex DeBrincat, Connor Bedard, Carter Verhaeghe

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