Trade Deadline Pressure Gauge: Which teams are all-in?

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With less than three weeks until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story each day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today, we check in on the contending teams, be they elite-tier Stanley Cup threats or Wildcard bubble teams hanging on for dear life. If we grade the idea of being “all-in” on a scale, which teams are the most all-in? Which might behave more conservatively approaching March 3?

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 19 days

Introducing the Trade Deadline Pressure Gauge, created through a combination of (a) Intel, (b) Reading the tea leaves based on the standings and (c) information already publicly available.

Tier 1: ALL-IN

These teams need to win this year. They’re willing to throw caution to the wind, trade 1^st round picks and/or prospects if it gets them the pieces they need.

(Tier 1A, already all-in)

New York Islanders
New York Rangers

The Islanders and Rangers ponied up with first-round picks as part of the packages they used to acquire Bo Horvat and Vladimir Tarasenko, respectively. The Isles are so all-in that they sacrificed their top prospect, Aatu Raty, despite sitting outside a playoff position on the day of the trade. With Horvat signing an eight-year extension at an $8.5 million AAV, GM Lou Lamoriello is all-in for more than just this season.

(Tier 1B, soon to be all-in)

Toronto Maple Leafs
Winnipeg Jets
Dallas Stars
Vegas Golden Knights
Carolina Hurricanes
Boston Bruins

Note GM Kyle Dubas’ phrasing earlier this week when asked about top prospect forward Matthew Knies and Toronto’s 2023 first-round pick. He said they likely weren’t in play for rentals. The Leafs seem to be hinting at playing it conservatively in the coming weeks, but with Dubas’ contract up and Toronto under immense pressure to break a streak of six consecutive opening-round playoff exits, Dubas must leave no stone unturned, whether he’s replacing Jake Muzzin on defense or acquiring another impactful top-nine forward.

With Colorado backing into a playoff spot because of all its injury woes, the Jets and Stars have realistic odds of winning the Central Division. Both teams are buoyed by tremendous goaltending (Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger), a Norris Trophy caliber anchor on defense (Josh Morrissey, Miro Heiskanen) and a scoring machine on the left wing (Kyle Connor, Jason Robertson). But both clubs could use one more difference maker at forward. The Stars may not have the cap space to go after one of the top-tier pieces, however. They’re a virtual lock to make some upgrade(s), but maybe not the flashiest kind.

Keep an eye on Vegas and Carolina if you want flashy. Both teams have newfound cap space to throw around with Mark Stone (likely) and Max Pacioretty (already) landing on LTIR. It’s a no-brainer for the Canes to take a big swing given how good they are. It’s time to break through and actually contend for a Cup. As for the Golden Knights? Just because they shouldn’t doesn’t mean they won’t. They love to chase shiny things and have hinted that Stone could pull a Nikita Kucherov and return in time for the playoffs when Stone’s $9.5 million cap hit no longer matters.

Meanwhile, the Bruins are the best team in the NHL and owe it to captain Patrice Bergeron to ride or die in what might be his final season.

Tier 2: BUYER MODE

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of these teams make major trades, but it’s not “2023 or bust.“

Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche
Seattle Kraken
New Jersey Devils
Buffalo Sabres
Edmonton Oilers
Calgary Flames

The Lightning and Avalanche, who have won the past three Stanley Cups, are certainly in position to contend for a championship again, but their urgency isn’t maxed out. It will require more Julien BriseBois magic to find help given Tampa’s tight cap situation and depleted asset portfolio. Colorado’s need to replace Nazem Kadri at the No. 2 center position is obvious.

The Kraken are further ahead than many of us likely expected them to be, developmentally. It’s tough to see GM Ron Francis dipping into the team’s still-growing prospect pool, but would he surrender one of three second-round picks for a mid-tier upgrade somewhere? The Sabres don’t have to go all-in, but they’re charging toward a playoff spot and might be in a position to acquire help for more than just this season. The Devils have only just broken through as contenders but have been dominant more often than not this season with Jack Hughes exploding into superstardom. The lure of a Swiss connection between Timo Meier and Nico Hischier has to be tempting.

The Kings spent the past two offseasons adding high-impact players. They’re undoubtedly a buyer now, they have an incredibly deep pool of prospects to dangle in trades, and they badly need help in net.

What happens with the Oilers and Flames? Is it too risky for either club to go all-in right now given the playoffs are not a lock? The Oilers are still likely to be buyers, perhaps on a similar scale to last year when they added support pieces in the vein of Brett Kulak. Ken Holland hinted this week at wanting to “help out” his roster with an addition. The Flames are barely floating above the Stand Pat tier.

Tier 3: LAST GASP

These grizzled teams could chase upgrades but maybe shouldn’t.

Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals

The Penguins and Capitals are the league’s two oldest teams. They continue to push forward to honor their generationally great superstars in Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, but it’s debatable whether they can even prop their championship windows open with trades at this point. Neither club has appealing prospect harvests to draw from. With GM Ron Hextall suggesting this week that his club’s 2023 first-rounder likely isn’t in play, maybe the Pens are evaluating their situation more realistically now.

Tier 4: STAND PAT

These teams are good enough to challenge for a playoff spot but not safe enough in the playoff race to be clear-cut buyers.

Nashville Predators
Florida Panthers
Minnesota Wild

What does GM David Poile do this time? Every year, he’s expected to sell off some major pieces, then his team goes on a surprise late run and forces him into tough decisions. Will he keep the Predators mired in mediocrity another year?

The Panthers have the talent to be a dangerous first-round playoff opponent, but injuries and plain bad luck have held them back. They also have a lot of cap space freeing up this summer. I’d expect them to be more of an offseason player than a deadline buyer. Meanwhile, the Wild have lost six of nine and GM Bill Guerin has publicly admitted his team is in a wishy-washy position, not guaranteed to make the big dance. Depending on how they perform in the next three weeks, they could play their way back into buyer status or sink toward more of a seller position, fielding offers for blueliner Matt Dumba.