Using analytics to determine the NHL’s five best brother combos

Credit: © Jerome Miron

There have been plenty of times in NHL history when brothers have crossed paths and played in the league at the same time. Some have even been lucky enough to get a chance to play with each other, like the Sedins and the Staals, while others have wound up creating some rivalries out of getting a chance to play against each other, like the Tkachuks.

With those Tkachuks getting another opportunity to play against each other last night (although not to quite the excitement that we got earlier in the season), I thought it’d be fun to use analytics to see which brothers are the best in the league this season. I’ll be using ol’ reliable (Evolving Wild’s goals above replacement model) to do so, so take everything with a grain of salt, but as always, we’re mostly just here to have fun. It should be noted that this does not include Tuesday’s games, so it’s possible that those games could have altered this list.

Here are a few brothers who just missed the cut:

Honourable Mentions (with combined stats)

The Nylanders (William and Alex) – 59GP, 29G, 42A, 71P, 9.5 GAR
The Nylanders are one of this list’s versions of the classic Gretzky brothers joke where they have the most points among brothers, with Wayne having 2,857 points and Brent having 4. Alex’s -0.8 isn’t quite enough to keep William’s 10.3 completely out of contention, as the older brother lives up to their father Michael’s reputation a bit more.

The Josephs (Mathieu and Pierre-Olivier) – 66GP, 10G, 20A, 30P, 10.6 GAR
The Josephs are another example of Gretzky-esque difference, as Mathieu’s 11.4 GAR is spoiled a bit by Pierre-Olivier currently rocking a -0.8. Remember when Mathieu was going to be considered for a cap dump in Ottawa?

The Smiths (Brendan and Reilly) – 85GP, 12G, 19A, 31P, 12.6 GAR
While Reilly has been known for having solid seasons like this one at 5.7 GAR, it’s Brendan’s 6.9 that actually really helps this duo’s case, as the defenseman has been thrust into top four roles throughout the season due to injuries and doing quite well in those situations.

5. The Folignos (Nick and Marcus)

96GP, 22G, 23A, 45P, 13.1 GAR

The Folignos aren’t the only instance of a family that benefitted from some strong genes from their parents, but they’ve also managed to carve out careers for themselves. Both brothers have even managed to find themselves in their father’s old stomping grounds at some point in their careers, with Marcus spending six seasons in Buffalo after being drafted by the Sabres, while Nick had a brief (and forgettable) stint in Toronto.

Nick and Marcus also make for a great example on how even if one brother is barely a positive impact, it can make all the difference. Marcus hasn’t been the two-way forward that he’s usually been in his career with just 2.1 GAR this season, but it’s enough to keep from it taking away from Nick’s season. At 11 GAR, Nick has been doing a much better job on the year, although admittedly that’s more on the offensive side of the game thanks to some guy named Connor Bedard.

4. The Tkachuks (Matthew and Brady)

109GP, 45G, 65A, 110P, 15.5 GAR

You probably weren’t expecting to see these two so soon, huh? Well, between Matthew’s early season struggles keeping his totals lower than normal, both brothers struggling a bit more defensively this season, and about 2.1 GAR separating the duos in 2-4, they really aren’t far off. While they are the second most-productive brothers on this list, the fact that William Nylander somehow takes that crown despite five pointless games from his brother is the reason that isn’t the only thing I look at here. Still, it says a lot about these two that despite all these struggles, they’re well within range of taking second place with Matthew’s 9.9 GAR and Brady’s 5.6 still keeping them in contention.

If we weren’t going off the numbers here, these two would easily be second place. Both take after their dad very well and act like shift disturbers on the ice. Brady has seen his game progress now that he’s actually been able to finish the chances he’s created for several seasons now, while Matthew has taken leaps and bounds to turn into one of the best players in the league, even if he couldn’t score to save his life to start the season. And they like to support each other, so what’s not to love?

3. The Lindgrens (Charlie and Ryan)

78GP, 2G, 9A, 11P, 10-8-4, .913%, 3SO, 15.6 GAR

Out of all the brother combos in the NHL to play at least one game, only one features a goalie: the Lindgren brothers. That goes a long way on this list, as goalies are favored well in GAR models due to how much more they play than other positions, and Charlie has seized the opportunity in Washington to play a bigger role this season. He was instrumental in Washington’s earlier success, and even as the team has slowed down, he hasn’t yet at 13.6 GAR.

Ryan doesn’t bring quite as much to the table with only 2 GAR, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t contributing. He’s really grown into his role with the Rangers, becoming the staple defensive defenseman for them to pair alongside Adam Fox for the past five seasons. Those two haven’t had quite the success that they usually do this season, but normally it’s one of the best defense pairs in the league.

And no, Ryan hasn’t scored on Charlie yet.

2. The Robertsons (Jason and Nick)

93GP, 26G, 47A, 73P, 17.6 GAR

It’s funny to think that both brothers made their debuts in the same season considering their career trajectories both before and after, but it’s quite clear that Jason has established himself as the better brother so far. He was a consistent scorer almost right out of the gate, and then took his game to another level last season. He’s taken a step back this season, so we’ll see what we should expect from Jason down the road, but he’s still an excellent player regardless at 15.5 GAR.

It’s probably not all that surprising to find out that Jason is the one carrying this duo, but that’s not a complete discredit to Nick either. Nick came out flying in his post-draft year and cracked the Leafs roster for the playoffs in the bubble in 2020, but injuries have derailed his development since. This season has seen him finally get a consistent NHL role, and he’s managed to put up an almost 20-goal pace despite playing bottom-six minutes, resulting in a 2.1 GAR. If the Leafs don’t hang on to him, some team is still going to get a solid player in Nick.

1. The Hughes’ (Quinn, Jack and Luke)

152GP, 37G, 109A, 146P, 31.3 GAR

This feels like cheating considering that the Hughes’ are the only trio of brothers in the league this season unless Eric Staal makes a return, but even if you adjust their total GAR to the equivalent of two brothers, they still beat the next closest pairing with 20.9. Considering that there was a point early on in the season that all three players were legitimate candidates for the Hart, Norris, and Calder Trophy, it’s easy to see why they stand out as the best.

Quinn has gotten the most attention this season thanks to still remaining in the Norris Trophy conversation, and the fact that he’s stayed healthy so far has given him a 19.3 GAR, which alone would best any brother duo on this list. That’s what’s keeping him ahead of Jack in raw points and GAR, as Jack only has 50 points and a 10.4 GAR due to the injuries he’s dealt with this season. In terms of rate stats, he’s still beating Quinn by 0.12 per game in points and only 0.027 GAR per 60 minutes behind his brother. But there’s a reason why Jack was considered for the Hart earlier in the year before it became the four-horse race it’s become, and his recent return to the Devils has brought them back into contention. And then there’s Luke, who’s certainly the lesser of the three brothers right now at 1.6 GAR, but he’s put together a strong rookie season and could very well end up the best of the three.

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