Want to shut down Nikita Kucherov? Good luck

Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports

Losing Steven Stamkos could have easily sunk the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s offense. But it didn’t. And that’s because Nikita Kucherov exists.

Has there been a more overlooked superstar in the NHL over the past 20 years? Going up against the likes of Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon can be a challenge. Kucherov is so skilled, but he’s never been overly flashy, and has never scored 50 goals in his NHL career.

But with the way he’s playing and thriving – that’s about to change this season.

Kucherov is off to one of the best starts of his NHL career, scoring seven goals and 10 points through five games. It all started with a three-goal, four-point game against Carolina, and he has points in every game thus far.

Given his reputation as more of an elite playmaker – highlighted by his first 100-assist campaign last year – it seems he has flipped the script a bit this year. Yes, he won’t finish with more than 140 goals, like he’s on pace for right now. But the Bolts have had to rely on him heavily to generate high-danger chances this season – no other Tampa Bay player has more than two goals.

Has anything really changed, or is Kucherov just clicking? He won’t divulge his own secrets, but the data shows he’s having a bit more success in one area of the ice. According to SportContract, a large chunk of Kucherov’s shots have come from the right side, or left of the goaltender. Doing so allows a left-handed shot like Kucherov to get a much more dangerous release off. However, the largest portion of his goals have come from the exact opposite side. Kucherov still can wire shots in open space from the right side, but he’s also beating plenty of goaltenders blocker side, too.

*Kucherov’s shot/goal map, according to SportContract. Green is shots, red are goals.*

Kucherov has always preferred shooting from the right side, with 21 of his goals coming from there last year. The craziest part? SportContract doesn’t have him scoring on the left side of the ice at all. Right now, it’s a small sample size. But it’s definitely interesting to see Kucherov’s success on his off-wing, as well as the immediate success he has found alongside Brayden Point and newcomer Jake Guentzel early on this season.

“He’s such a good hockey mind that me and Guentz are trying to build spots to score,” Point said prior to Monday’s game in Toronto.

Defending against a player with so many lethal skills in his toolkit, like Kucherov, can be near impossible at times (thanks, Captain Obvious). But for someone who has made his career outsmarting some of the best defensemen in the league and making plays happen in open space, it has to be even more terrifying seeing him lighting up goalies like he is a year after winning the Art Ross as the NHL’s top scorer.

“He plays the game at his own pace,” Maple Leafs defenseman Chris Tanev said. “He’ll slow it down, he’ll speed it up. We can’t let him dictate and control the game. We’ve got to take time and space away from him as much as we can.”

Kucherov won the Hart Trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player and Ted Lindsay Award for most outstanding player as voted by the players in 2018-19, but it wasn’t even the best season of his career so far. He’s now a four-time 100-point scorer, and he still has plenty of good hockey left to go at 31. But between putting up the numbers he did a year ago, and the way he’s playing now, there’s a real chance Kucherov joins Connor McDavid (153 in 2022-23) and Mario Lemieux (161 in 1995-96) as the only players to break 150 points over the past 30 years.

“He’s got everything,” Leafs right winger Mitch Marner said. “You’ve got to be aware of him at all times.”

Finding ways to shut down Kucherov has clearly proven to be futile.

“The only way you beat him is by being faster and smarter than him,” one NHL scout said. “Which, given how slippery he can be and how he’s so manipulative, it’s like trying to knock a brick wall down with a plastic spoon. Good luck.”

Kucherov has always been impressive on the power play – he loves that extra space to maneuver and make smart, effective decisions. But this year, it just hasn’t worked out. Tampa’s power play is clicking at a measly 12.5 percent – 28th in the NHL. Thats less than half of their league-leading 28.6 percent a year ago. It’s not all Stamkos’ departure, of course. But with just one power-play goal this year, the Bolts could use a bit more from Kucherov in that department. And imagine if he does – pair that with his great 5-on-5 play, and he’ll be truly unstoppable.

Kucherov’s 31.8 shooting percentage will eventually die down, but he still has a career average of 14.6. Even at that rate, he’ll be one of the NHL’s top goal-scorers with some wiggle room to spare.

Only McDavid (291 points) has outscored Kucherov (266) since 2022-23, and he’s 13th in goals in that span with 81. It’s time to give him the respect he deserves as a goal-scorer in the NHL, especially as he looks primed to break the half-century mark for the first time ever. Between the two Stanley Cups, the MVP titles, the Art Rosses and the numerous other accolades, Kucherov is truly one of the game’s elite – and we might be witnessing him at his best right now.

Just don’t put him in a meaningless mid-season skills competition.

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Want to shut down Nikita Kucherov? Good luck

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