What new contracts for Flyers’ pending RFAs could look like
As we approach the 50-game mark on the NHL regular season, the Philadelphia Flyers are hanging onto relevance in the Eastern Conference wild-card race.
Sitting four points back of the Boston Bruins for the final playoff spot, the Flyers have amassed 48 points through 47 regular season games thus far.
With the playoffs not being the be-all, end-all internally for Flyers management – all while postseason dreams seem to be getting dim with each passing week – it’s fair to start wondering about what the Flyers roster could look like beyond this season.
Specifically, what their more significant RFAs’ deals will look like.
Forwards Noah Cates and Tyson Foerster, along with defenseman Cam York, are pending RFAs and due new contracts before the beginning of next season. While none of the three aforementioned players seem to have imminent deals on the horizon, I have heard that the Flyers have a ballpark idea for each player’s next contract – in an ideal world.
Cates, who will turn 26 next month, is a later-round pick who has been a favorite of head coach John Tortorella since both of their arrivals in 2022. After a remarkable defensive rookie season, Cates’ play dipped last season, largely due to injury, playing in just 59 games. After a slow start to the season, Cates has come into his own as of late, operating as arguably the Flyers’ top-line pivot (though the competition is slim). With 10 goals and 22 points through 47 games, Cates looks like he will surpass his previous career high of 38 points from two seasons ago.
Cates is in the second year of a two-year contract he signed in the summer of 2023 that carries an AAV of $2.625 million. Based on what I’ve heard, the Flyers are prepared to go in the four or five-year range with Cates should the money make sense. His current AAV does seem to be in the fair ballpark for what he may get, though a bump in some capacity should be expected.
One contract that was pointed out to me as a good comparison is that of Vegas Golden Knights forward Nicolas Roy, who signed a five-year, $15 million deal two years ago. It will ultimately depend on the term, but a $3-3.5 million AAV seems to be a fair range for Cates on a longer-term deal.
Foerster, 23, has been riding shotgun with Cates for the majority of this season, forming the club’s most consistent (and arguably best) line along with Bobby Brink for the last couple of months. The 2020 first-round pick had a strong defensive rookie season for the Flyers last season, but has now, after a rocky start, begun to put the offense together; he has 12 goals and 22 points through 44 games, which is on pace to well surpass his 33 point total from last season.
Coming off of his ELC, expect a two or three-year bridge deal for Foerster. The Flyers have gone the bridge route with almost every single RFA in the last number of years: Brink, Tippett, and York, to name a few. From what I’ve heard, the Flyers are not enthralled with the idea of handing out long-term deals directly off ELCs, primarily to avoid having to deal with expiring deals coming up near the age of 30. Foerster will be no different and will be getting a bridge; I’d imagine his AAV will come in the $2-3 million range.
York, 24, will undoubtedly be the most significant deal the Flyers get done internally between now and the beginning of next season. In the second year of a two-year, $3.2 million contract he signed in 2023, York is in line for a healthy pay raise. I do think the Flyers are prepared to go long-term with York; anywhere in the six to eight-year range (similar to what we heard of Tippett this time last year) I would expect as most likely. Regarding AAV, I think it will be somewhere between $6 million and $7 million.
I was told Devon Toews was a good stylistic comparison for York a few months back. While that still remains true, York has yet to prove to be at a Toews level – specifically offensively, with just 11 points through 33 games – as a stand-alone, top-pair guy. As one person said to me, York is most likely a second-pair defenseman on a Stanley Cup contender. With that in mind, I don’t see York getting to Toews’ $7.25 million AAV.
Internally, I do think the Flyers use Travis Sanheim’s $6.25 million AAV as an in-house barometer as to how other defensemen get paid. Sanheim is the top dog on the back end, but there also is a recognition that his contract has evolved into one of the best bargain deals among NHL defensemen; Sanheim would likely be in line for a $9 million AAV if he were up for a new deal today. All this being considered, I wouldn’t be shocked to see York’s AAV creep a little higher than Sanheim’s, to say nothing of the rising salary cap. Overall, Sanheim’s eight-year deal and $6.25 million AAV may be the best comparison for York.
The Flyers are in no rush to get any of these deals done, but frameworks have at least begun to get hammered out internally. The focus is still on the season and the upcoming Trade Deadline, but the upcoming deals for their pending RFAs is something the Flyers have at least begun to discuss and hammer out frameworks for.
Rasmus Ristolainen
Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen remains a hot topic in trade discussions and ranks no.10 on Frank Seravalli’s Trade Targets Board on Dailyfaceoff.com. My colleague Matt Larkin took the Ristolainen trade talk one step further this morning, dropping eight potential suitors for the 30-year-old Finnish blueliner.
Larkin provides a stellar analysis of all the pros and cons as to why each of the eight teams listed can be landing spots for Ristolainen. Of the eight, I would be surprised if Detroit, Florida and Tampa Bay ultimately stay in the race for Ristolainen. I do think the salary cap has a role to play for all three, but based on conversations I’ve had recently, those three seem the least likely of the eight.
Toronto and Vancouver have been tied to Ristolainen going back to last season. The Canucks are always looking to add size to their back end, while the Maples Leafs, though significantly overhauling their blueline this past summer, always seem in the market to add on the back end.
The Jets were in the market for Ristolainen when the player was on the trade block during his time with the Sabres; with Neil Pionk as a pending UFA, adding Ristolainen for this year and two years beyond could be an insurance policy for general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff. Signing free agents is always difficult in Winnipeg, so adding a player with the term wouldn’t be a bad thing.
The Stars added Chris Tanev to the right side of their blueline last year ahead of the Trade Deadline and are in need of a boost in a similar fashion this season. The outlook on the right side of their defense isn’t great and Ristolainen would check that box – at least stylistically.
The Oilers always need help on the back end – even in light of the John Klingberg addition – and could use Ristolainen’s physicality in a bottom-pair role. Are they willing to take on the full contract, though?
Ristolainen has two years remaining on his deal beyond this season at $5.1 million. The Flyers remain firm on their ask for a first-round pick in return for him. Be sure to check out Larkin’s full breakdown on the topic, which dropped earlier today.
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