What makes Leo Carlsson one of the top prospects for the 2023 NHL Draft

Steven Ellis
Steven Ellis
What makes Leo Carlsson one of the top prospects for the 2023 NHL Draft

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Everyone knows about Connor Bedard. You can’t escape him. He’s like Thanos – he’s inevitable.

But the quality of NHL Draft talent beyond the consensus No. 1 prospect runs deep. It’s more of a quality over quantity thing, but we’ve been blessed to watch some of the world’s top young prospects taking center stage. And while Bedard has clearly been the best of all of them, Sweden’s Leo Carlsson has been turning heads as one of the top names.

Carlsson’s tournament has been a bit quieter than, say, Bedard’s, who is making goalies look like soggy toilet paper on a nightly basis. Carlsson entered the semifinals with just four points, with two multi-point efforts bookmarking his stat line. Carlsson had a pair of assists against Austria but was most notable after scoring twice in a comeback 3-2 victory over Finland in the quarterfinal. If it wasn’t for Carlsson’s net-front effort, Sweden – who struggled for most of the game – wouldn’t have come out on top.

Carlsson has been one of the most impressive prospects this season. He has 14 points in his first 25 games in the Swedish Hockey League, tied with Detroit prospect Marco Kasper for first despite playing five fewer games. Having a near full-season effort with Orebro last year, Carlsson wasted no time getting back up to speed this year and went from potentially being outside of the top 10 of the draft to firmly grasping a top five spot – with a solid argument to go third.

So, what makes him stand out? Most notably, scouts love how dangerous he is around the net.

“His net-front presence might be the best in the draft,” a scout said. “And he showed that against Finland, specifically. His strength makes him tough to clear out and that allows him to just sit there and knock in deflections and rebounds. Defensemen haven’t figured out what to do with him yet.”

At 6-foot-3 and 194 pounds, Carlsson has the best size in the top tier of 2023 draft prospects. He also has the most experience against men with 60 games played over two years in the SHL. Carlsson has shown that the physical side of the game isn’t an issue and should help him transition to the next level. But especially in front of the net, he’s relentless, and scouts love that.

For a bigger kid, Carlsson is a strong skater. He has quick feet, and his overall strength allows him to stay grounded and well-aligned to the puck. Carlsson will not blow you away with his top speed, but he’s got enough to pose a challenge on North American ice.

Carlsson is also a well-ironed playmaker, and we’ll get to that later. But one thing that has really stood out this year, especially against competition his own age, is his confidence and willingness to take more risks with his creativity. We saw last year that Carlsson could be intimidated at points and would rather just send the puck off to a teammate. He has shown flashes of creative genius when taking the puck up the ice, fighting his way through traffic with a quick deke to start a scoring chance.

“When he believes in himself, he’s the best player on the ice,” a scout said. “He doesn’t always get to show that in Orebro, but he’s an integral piece of the team’s attack. He can drive the play, but he’s also a more dangerous player with the puck now too.”

Carlsson has played both center and left wing this year with relative ease. Everything he does feels calculated. His positioning on the rush, how he sets his teammates up and how he thinks the game, all calulated. He has what scouts call “good hockey IQ”, which, from the onset, sounds like gibberish. But it essentially means the player can make effective decisions on the fly and not have to rely on instincts. Scouts love his brain and his decision-making with and without the puck.

And then, there’s his playmaking ability. Scouts hesitate to use the word “elite,” something that’s way too common in public scouting circles. That should be saved for the absolute best of the best in the world. But compared to the rest of the class, few can compete – Bedard, for sure, but that might be it. Of Carlsson’s 14 points in the SHL, 11 of them are assists. As a whole, he has scored more with Sweden’s U-20 team than assisted on, but he’s well-rounded.

Carlsson is as unselfish as they come. He has the competitiveness and size to barrel through opponents, but he’s not going to hold onto the puck just to force something. He’s viewed as good team player and one that should hold a No. 1 center spot at some point in his career.

The sky’s the limit for Carlsson, who won’t wait long to get selected in June. Teams always crave smart, skilled, big-bodied middlemen. He’s the best bet to challenge for the No. 2 spot with Adam Fantilli, who plays a similar game with a similar build. With the right talent around him, he has the potential to be a cornerstone player in the NHL. His game is built upon smarts and power, and he’ll do everything better than your team’s favorite prospect, too.

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