What the 4 Nations Face-off teams would look like if they were decided analytically
Over the past month, my Daily Faceoff co-workers Matt Larkin, Steven Ellis and friends have been putting together mock-up rosters for the four teams set to participate in the 4 Nations Face-off next year: Canada, USA, Sweden and Finland. They did an excellent job of coming up with rosters that are well-thought out and are likely to be close to what comes to fruition, while also interjecting some surprises here and there.
But, I thought I’d take the surprise factor and crank it up to 11. As is the case with just about anything like this, I’ll always look at it and think to myself “what would this look like if I only used analytics to factor into the decision-making?” Well, I’m doing it again, and while there are certainly some surprises, it should at least showcase that analytics aren’t completely far from common opinions.
To determine this process, I’ll first determine the rosters based on every NHL player’s Goals Above Replacement per 60 minutes since 2020-21. This way, we’ll get a large enough sample size to make sure we aren’t just bringing in one-hit wonders. The only restrictions are that they have to have played at least 82 games, and they have to currently be active in the NHL.
After that, I’ll organize the lines based on the stereotypical set-up: a goal scorer, a playmaker, and a defensive specialist for the forwards, and an offensive and defensive defensemen paired together on the backend. That… also creates some interesting combinations and placements, as you are about to see with third-liner Connor McDavid on Team Canada. But remember, this is just for fun, and to see what hidden gems each country provides that might not normally get a serious look.
Team Canada
| LW | C | RW |
| Jared McCann | Nathan MacKinnon | Mark Stone |
| Mason Marchment | Brayden Point | Mitch Marner |
| Zach Hyman | Connor McDavid | Sam Reinhart |
| Brad Marchand | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Seth Jarvis |
| Michael Bunting | ||
| LD | RD | G |
| Devon Toews | Cale Makar | Adin Hill |
| Thomas Chabot | Chris Tanev | Stuart Skinner |
| Evan Bouchard | Jared Spurgeon | Tristan Jarry |
| Thomas Harley |
Players not on Matt or Steven’s rosters: McCann, Marchment, Nugent-Hopkins, Jarvis, Bunting, Chabot, Tanev, Spurgeon, Harley
Players on both Matt and Steven’s rosters: MacKinnon, Stone, Point, Marner, Hyman, McDavid, Reinhart, Marchand, Toews, Makar, Hill, Skinner
Glaring omissions: Crosby, Barzal, Bedard, Weegar, Dobson, Morrissey
The results for Team Canada were quite bi-polar in terms of what I put out versus what Matt and Steven put out. It seems like every player on my roster was either one that both of my colleagues included on their roster, or one that neither of them included.
It’s hard to truly go wrong with a roster like Canada, because they have such a surplus of talent that some elite players can be left off and it won’t make a difference. That said, there are certainly some shocking absences that would never happen in real life, most specifically with Crosby (who, for the record, only misses because of declining defensive stats in recent seasons) and Bedard (who will likely make the roster as well given the talent he’s already displayed at the NHL level).
But the bigger surprises are that there are a couple players who are stretches to make the roster, particularly with Marchment, Jarvis, Bunting, Harley and, to some extent, Chabot. Considering that this roster takes the past four seasons into account, it’s less of a surprise that Marchment and Bunting are here, because they both had elite-level 2021-22 seasons to boost otherwise strong career numbers. Chabot has actually done quite well when he’s played, the problem is just that he’s rarely played full seasons. Meanwhile, Jarvis and Harley are having such good seasons this year that it really boosts their overall numbers, especially with how small the sample sizes were beforehand.
Beyond that, I don’t think you can complain about this team outside of who’s on what line, but with a roster this deep you can almost run all four lines evenly if you wanted to. McCann, Point and Hyman act as excellent goal-scorers on their line; MacKinnon, Marner and McDavid are top tier playmakers; and Stone, Marchment and Reinhart make for excellent defensive forwards. And the beauty of using GAR to determine who makes the initial roster is that you know every player is good at most facets of the game. The defensive pairs seem balanced, and while the goaltending doesn’t quite compare to everyone else in the tournament, you at least know they can perform well behind great teams, with Hill bringing championship experience.
Team USA
| LW | C | RW |
| Johnny Gaudreau | Auston Matthews | Joey Anderson |
| Matt Boldy | Jack Drury | Matthew Tkachuk |
| Jason Robertson | Jack Eichel | Conor Garland |
| Stefan Noesen | Jack Hughes | Joe Pavelski |
| Troy Terry | ||
| LD | RD | G |
| Quinn Hughes | Trevor van Riemsdyk | Jeremy Swayman |
| Nick Seeler | Charlie McAvoy | Connor Hellebuyck |
| Jaccob Slavin | Adam Fox | Thatcher Demko |
| Nick Jensen |
Players not on Matt or Steven’s rosters: Gaudreau, Anderson, Boldy, Drury, Garland, Noesen, Pavelski, Terry, van Riemsdyk, Seeler, Jensen, Swayman
Players on both Matt and Steven’s rosters: Matthews, M. Tkachuk, Robertson, Eichel, J. Hughes, Q. Hughes, McAvoy, Slavin, Fox, Hellebuyck, Demko
Glaring omissions: B. Tkachuk, DeBrincat, Connor, Keller, Miller, Thompson, Guentzel, Sanderson, Faber, Oettinger
Alright, this one is a lot more controversial. Sure, there are some surprises that make some sense, like Gaudreau, Boldy, Terry and Swayman, but there are some pretty big names omitted from the roster at the expense of players like Anderson, Drury, Noesen, van Riemsdyk, Seeler and Jensen. But have you considered the fact that USA Hockey loves to do this? This is the same organization that recruited the likes of Erik & Jack Johnson, Justin Abdelkader, David Backes, and Brandon Dubinsky for their team the last time NHL players participated in an international-style tournament at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey. They even wanted Ryan Callahan before his injury!
All jokes aside, there are definitely some shockers, but they do fit the mold of a defensive-minded player. Of this squad, Anderson, Drury and Noesen were the top three forwards in defensive GAR per 60, and van Riemsdyk and Seeler were the top two defensemen. They may not jump off the page like some of the omissions, but they would effectively get the job done when given the role.
As a result, the three forwards work as excellent defensive options along their offensive counterparts, creating four really strong lines that have an elite sniper in Matthews, Boldy, Robertson and Jack Hughes, and a strong playmaker in Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Garland and Pavelski, with Eichel being the other elite defender up front. On the back end, van Riemsdyk and Seeler perfectly complement Quinn Hughes and McAvoy, allowing Slavin and Fox to be a third pair most teams would kill for.
In the crease, it may come as a shock to see Swayman in the lineup over Oettinger, never mind in the starting role. But it’s his consistency in his short career that got him the spot, especially when Oettinger has had a down season this year. USA will likely go to the more experienced Hellebuyck and Demko to actually play games, but don’t count out Swayman when the worst season he’s had in his career is a .914% save percentage. If he has a solid playoff run with the Boston Bruins this year, it might be hard to deny him a spot.
Team Sweden
| LW | C | RW |
| Filip Forsberg | Mika Zibanejad | Jesper Fast |
| Gabriel Landeskog | Elias Pettersson | William Nylander |
| Nils Hoglander | Mikael Backlund | Jesper Bratt |
| Viktor Arvidsson | Joel Eriksson Ek | Elias Lindholm |
| Rickard Rakell | ||
| LD | RD | G |
| Hampus Lindholm | Oliver Kylington | Linus Ullmark |
| Gustav Forsling | William Lagesson | Jacob Markstrom |
| Marcus Pettersson | Mattias Ekholm | Anton Forsberg |
| Timothy Liljegren |
Players not on Matt, Steven or Uffe’s rosters: Landeskog, Hoglander, Arvidsson, Rakell, Kylington, Lagesson, M. Pettersson, A. Forsberg
Players on Matt, Steven and Uffe’s rosters: F. Forsberg, Zibanejad, E. Pettersson, Nylander, Backlund, Bratt, Eriksson Ek, E. Lindholm, H. Lindholm, Ullmark, Markstrom
Glaring omissions: Kempe, Raymond, W. Karlsson, Carlsson, Dahlin, Andersson, Hedman, E. Karlsson, Gustavsson
The Swedes have a more similar roster to those of my colleagues, at least in terms of the forwards and the goalies. That’s largely in part due to a much smaller pool to choose from, so the easy choices have a much easier time standing out, and there aren’t nearly as many analytical darlings. William Karlsson is probably the biggest snub, while Raymond and Carlsson aren’t so much snubbed as much as they just weren’t projected for how good they’ll probably be by the time this tournament starts.
If anything, it’s the placement of the players on the roster that may surprise people, particularly with Fast. But, Fast’s defensive metrics are hard to deny, and that makes him the perfect complement for the offensive duo of Filip Forsberg and Zibanejad, especially with Zibanejad’s underwhelming defensive stats. Other than that, Hoglander is probably the only surprise up front, but he’s scored goals at efficient rates in his career, particularly this season. Anton Forsberg was my outlier pick in net, but he’s done well in spite of a poor Sens team these past few seasons. Landeskog might be one as well due to his injury, but we all know that if he’s healthy, he’ll be there.
It’s the defense where the surprises really come about, as you could argue an elite top four in Rasmus Dahlin, Rasmus Andersson, Victor Hedman and Erik Karlsson all didn’t make the cut. Dahlin was weighed down by his 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, as he really didn’t hit elite levels until 2022-23. Meanwhile, for Andersson, Hedman, and Karlsson, they all run into the issue of having a couple of poor seasons mixed in with a couple of great ones. That weighs them down to just bang-average, making the room for more surprising defenders like Kylington, Lagesson, Pettersson and Liljegren, who have all consistently been putting up really good underlying numbers, although the quality of competition isn’t quite the same that the snubs face.
Team Finland
| LW | C | RW |
| Artturi Lehkonen | Aleksander Barkov | Mikko Rantanen |
| Matias Maccelli | Roope Hintz | Eeli Tolvanen |
| Erik Haula | Sebastian Aho | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| Eetu Luostarinen | Jesperi Kotkaniemi | Teuvo Teravainen |
| Anton Lundell | ||
| LD | RD | G |
| Juuso Valimaki | Miro Heiskanen | Juuse Saros |
| Olli Maatta | Jani Hakanpaa | Antti Raanta |
| Esa Lindell | Urho Vaakanainen | Ville Husso |
| Rasmus Ristolainen |
Players not on Matt, Steven or Antti’s rosters: Puljujarvi, Vaakanainen, Raanta, Husso
Players on Matt, Steven and Antti’s rosters: Lehkonen, Barkov, Rantanen, Maccelli, Hintz, Haula, Aho, Kotkaniemi, Teravainen, Lundell, Heiskanen, Maatta, Hakanpaa, Lindell, Saros
Glaring omissions: Granlund, Laine, Mikkola, Jokiharju, Luukkonen
Unlike with the Swedes’ blueline, the Finns don’t have any big omissions anywhere on the roster. In net, Luukkonen is still developing and thus not a lock for the team, Mikkola and Jokiharju aren’t exactly game changers on the blueline, and a lot has been made about the poor underlying numbers of Granlund and Laine, although their skill will probably get them spots on the actual team. On top of the fact that none of my unique adds are overly controversial outside of Vaakanainen, this is probably the most normal team of the four.
The only thing that stands out is, once again, the lineups. I was going to say that Tolvanen on the second line might be a shock, but Steven also went with him in that spot. Haula and Puljujarvi on the third line is certainly a surprise, especially with Teravainen on the fourth line and Lundell as the extra forward, but Haula and Puljujarvi have strong enough defensive metrics to justify it in this situation. And then Maatta and Hakanpaa as a second pair probably seems out of the ordinary, but beyond Heiskanen, the defense for Finland is a bit of a coinflip in terms of the quality that you’ll get from the players, so it isn’t that egregious.
Raanta and Husso also weren’t rostered on any of my colleagues’ picks, but both were considered for all of them, so those choices mostly just come off as an attempt to be different. Here, you’re banking quite a bit on Raanta being the consistent netminder that he was before this season, while with Husso you’re hoping for him to return to the goalie that he was before he joined the Red Wings. Beyond Saros, there isn’t exactly a ton of options anyways.
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