What’s the best path forward for Juraj Slafkovsky’s development?

Steven Ellis
Steven Ellis
What’s the best path forward for Juraj Slafkovsky’s development?
Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

The pressure was on Juraj Slafkovsky the minute the Montreal Canadiens made the surprising decision to select him first overall in 2022.

There are very few markets like Montreal, the only one with a real language power struggle. But with the team’s proud history, they want winners. And when they had the chance to select first overall in their own arena, the combination of anxiety and excitement in the Bell Centre was electric.

It wasn’t Shane Wright, who, at the time, was the near-consensus No. 1. But it was still one hell of a prospect, someone fans were ready to latch onto. At 6-foot-3 and 238 pounds, there aren’t many others players built like Slafkovsky in the game today.

So when he got off to a slow start last year, bouncing throughout the lineup before an injury halfway through the year kept him out of action, it was concerning. But he had a chance for a fresh start this season, and after a great first game that saw him register an assist on an Alex Newhook goal, hopes were high for the youngster.

But it would be an understatement to say it’s been a difficult season for the Slafkovsky. He has just two points in 12 games, and it took 11 games for him to score his first of the year. He has failed to register a shot in a third of Montreal’s games. It’s been hard to avoid the discourse surrounding No. 20 this year, with some fans wanting him to get sent to the AHL, and others just being overly frustrated with his lack of impact most nights.

Under the hood, it’s been ugly. Evolving-Hockey has Slafkovsky’s goals-above replacement at minus-2.1 and his wins-above replacement at minus-0.3 Only Alex Newhook is worse in both categories.

Montreal isn’t a real threat to make the playoffs this year. It’s in Montreal’s best interest to get everyone to settle down and stop scoring, really. So while players with Slafkovsky’s statline may become healthy scratches in some cases, there’s no reason to do that here, even with some ugly performances.

But there’s a reason why so few players go straight from junior (or in Slafkovsky’s case, European pro) to the NHL right away at 18. It’s the best league in the world. There’s nothing like it. And it doesn’t change much when you turn 19, either.

“It’s not easy for a 19-year-old to avoid hearing that (about pressure to perform) and to not be exposed to that with all the media there is in Montreal,” coach Martin St. Louis told Montreal media on Monday. “Sometimes it’s not fair.”

I like what St. Louis has done with the Canadiens. He didn’t penalize Cole Caufield for mistakes like Dominique Ducharme did. St. Louis understood the struggles of a smaller player trying to fit in. He understood it was going to take some time. But when it comes to Slafkovsky, I’m a little confused by St. Louis’ disinterest in pairing the big Slovak winger with Caufield and Nick Suzuki more often.

The trio finally lined up together for Montreal’s last two games, and Slafkovsky had his best game of the season on Nov. 4 against St. Louis with a goal and four shots. The game against Tampa Bay was a write-off, but otherwise, it’s not entirely shocking that the team’s star young forward is thriving with their top two players.

I wish Slafkovsky’s development was so much different. I didn’t think he was the best player available in 2022. His two weeks at the Olympics truly helped cement Montreal’s viewpoint. I watched every game of that tournament. I saw the power-play goals. His shot was downright impressive for his age. I also saw his lack of commitment to a solid defensive game and his inability to throw a hit.

Last year, I wanted Slafkovsky to play a crucial role on Slovakia’s world junior team. I get the idea of not sending a kid back to junior after starting the year playing against pro. But I still think it would have done so much for his confidence. Turns out, the Slovaks were pretty dang good, and nearly knocked off Connor McDavid and Canada in the quarterfinal. Imagine if Slafkovsky was there.

And since he didn’t come from a CHL team, sending him to the Laval Rocket was always an option last year. They wouldn’t send him down early, and he started to see his ice time increase before the injury. Had he stayed healthy, I think he would have spent time in the AHL.

But now? I can’t see it happening. The Canadiens are keeping him around to stay close to St. Louis. Somewhat like with teams electing to keep prospects up for a nine-game stint instead of sending them back to major junior, the Canadiens see more value in Slafkovsky working closely with St. Louis than getting more ice time with Laval. Even when he was getting outplayed, we saw Slafkovsky match up against the likes of Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes. It felt like St. Louis was testing his defensive capabilities and seeing how he can handle elite competition. It can be a punishing ask, but it seems like MSL is more focused on the long-term with Slafkovsky. That’s all anecdotal, but it really seems like St. Louis is working closely with Slafkovsky.

I still think ice time and confidence is king for teenagers, but at least he’ll get that if he sticks around on the top line.

Slafkovsky saw his ice time jump from 14:17 last Thursday to 18:06 on the first line. For a young player, that boost in ice time can mean a lot mentally. Junior-aged players haven’t had to endure much adversity, and when the spotlight’s on you and everything’s going wrong, it can have profound effects. So when Slafkovsky was playing some of the worst hockey of his career, St. Louis gave him the best support system he’s ever had instead of giving up on him or having him sent down to the minors.

Still, I’d rather see Slafkovsky playing in Laval than getting sheltered minutes on the third line. But that’s just me. I want him as confident as possible. With such a short NHL CV to work with, he can’t look back to the past to see how he got himself out of a rut like a veteran.

It’s up to Slafkovsky to pick up the slack. He needs to start producing. He needs to keep earning that ice time. But in terms of writing him off, be patient. Everyone would like to see more than just the 12 points he has mustered in 51 career games. It’s difficult to make excuses for him when we’ve already seen some early success from fellow 2022 picks Logan Cooley, Pavel Mintyukov and Matthew Poitras this year. But with two career points in eight games, it’s not like Wright has blown people away, right?

So, be patient. The Habs’ brass certainly will.

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