When – and how – will Mitch Marner join the Toronto Maple Leafs’ fight?
For one Toronto Maple Leafs superstar, Monday night at TD Garden will go down as a defining performance.
Auston Matthews was everywhere in Game 2 against the Boston Bruins, not only scoring the breathtaking game-winner on a breakaway, but also assisting on Toronto’s other two goals, winning faceoffs at will, leading the team in minutes and even preventing a goal with the blade of his stick as Toronto protected a lead late in the third period.
Matthews was the driver. John Tavares and Max Domi had their moments behind the wheel in Game 2 as well.
But Mitch Marner was a passenger, as he has been far too many times in the postseason throughout his career. No points, two shots on goal. For the series: no points, four shots on goal. His line with Matthew Knies and Tavares has generated a heinous 26.45 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. While Marner, a great defensive forward, was noticeable on the penalty kill, he earns his $10.9 million for being a dominant offensive player. He’s a two-time first-team all-star who ranks 11th in the NHL in points per game over the past six seasons.
But while Marner averages 28 goals and 91 points per 82 games in his career through 576 regular-season contests, his scoring pace plummets to 16 goals and 74 points per 82 games through his 52 career post-season games. Dating back to last season, he has one goal in his past 11 playoff games. He’s always carried the reputation among diehard Leaf fans, the radio-show call-in types, as a spring ghost, someone whose finesse-oriented game and wiry build don’t suit him well to the close-quarters combat of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Sure, but have you seen Brad Marchand? Jonathan Marchessault? Brayden Point? In today’s NHL, there’s room for little guys to make noise in the playoffs if they’re tenacious enough. And Marner’s brainy game and active stick, in theory, give him the tools to succeed.
But our eyes tell us that, more often than not, he doesn’t. In the offensive zone, it’s all peripheral play, attempts at hero-grade saucer passes through traffic. Instead of looking dangerous, he looks timid.
Especially with 98-point scorer William Nylander’s status still in doubt, and his immediate effectiveness a question mark once he does return from his mysterious injury, the Leafs need regular-season Marner, one of the game’s most dazzling puck dynamos. But there is evidently a mental block in the playoffs, perhaps the product of growing up a lifelong Leaf fan, feeling the pressure in a way many of his teammates can’t and repeatedly pitting himself against the media.
So if Marner can’t pull himself out of his shell and into the fight, how can Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe make that happen? Here are some possible solutions.
1. Home cookin’
Marner has always played his best in the comfort of Scotiabank Arena. He has 340 points in 290 regular-season games at home versus 299 in 286 games on the road. In the postseason, the split is similar: 27 points in 26 games at home versus 21 in 26 games on the road. So if the problem is mental, it may solve itself the minute Marner dons a blue sweater and soaks in the Leaf fan love. He gets to do that in Game 3, 4 and, if necessary, Game 6.
2. Reunite him with Auston Matthews
Keefe occasionally tossed Marner onto Matthews’ wing during Game 2, and the results were immediate. In the series so far, playing 4:55 together at 5-on-5, they’ve generated 67.27 percent of the expected goals and 75 percent of the scoring chances. Marner is much better with Matthews, but Matthews is better with Marner than without, too. If Nylander returns and is healthy enough to drive his own line, Keefe will have the option of reuniting Matthews and Marner full-time. And even if Nylander isn’t back, Keefe should have an easier time getting Matthews and Marner out there for spurts since the Leafs will have the last change for the next two games.
3. Try the Nylander-Tavares-Marner line, if the option is there
Should Nylander return for Game 3, things get really interesting. Late in the season, when Marner came back from his high-ankle sprain, Keefe opted to keep Domi, Matthews and Tyler Bertuzzi together and tested out a line of Nylander, Tavares and Marner. They only played 18:28 together at 5-on-5, but they pancaked their competition, holding a 19-4 edge in scoring chances. That’s not a typo. Why not see if they can recreate that magic?
4. Play him on the third line?
If Marner simply can’t win his minutes against Boston’s better checking forwards, could Keefe try and create mismatches by trotting Marner out on an insulated third unit? Plenty of Stanley Cups have been won in recent years because teams found the right formula for a dominant third line. Think Hagelin-Bonino-Kessel or Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow.
The Marner discourse tends to be exaggerated, sure. He’s still close to a point-per-game player in the postseason for his career. But he’s set a regular-season standard high enough to make him a potential Hall of Famer one day, and he doesn’t come close to meeting it in the playoffs. If Ryan Reaves is outplaying you so far in the postseason, something needs to change.
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