Which Atlantic Division bottom dweller will make the playoffs next?
Death, taxes and the Atlantic Division playoff picture never changing. Every season, we wait for one of the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators or Montreal Canadiens to break through and leapfrog one of the Florida Panthers, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning. But here we are more than a third of the way through 2024-25, and the usual divide remains between the top four and bottom four.
Surely, it can’t stay this way forever. So, Roundtable: Which of the Atlantic’s perennial Bottom Four will be the next team to make the playoffs…and when?
MATT LARKIN: I cannot believe I’m saying this, but it’s Ottawa in 2025. Yes, that’s this coming spring. Look: as much as Ottawa’s place in the standings looks the same, things are different under the hood this season. Under coach Travis Green, the Sens have actually become one of the better defensive teams in the NHL, ranking top-10 in expected goals against and shot suppression at 5-on-5. They’re near the bottom of the league in shooting percentage and save percentage – which is surprising considering that, on paper, offense and goaltending looked like their strengths going into the season. If those can normalize, the Sens, led by Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk, could go on a second-half heater. They’re still within striking distance of a Wildcard spot even now.
PAUL PIDUTTI: Well, as both Wayne Gretzky and The Office‘s Michael Scott have famously said: “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” With that, I’m going to say Buffalo in 2026. Yes, the Sabres. It’s been 13 seasons (and counting) without a playoff game. And 38-year-old Evgeni Malkin was a rookie the last time they won a round. GM Kevyn Adams’ seat is so hot that chestnuts don’t need an open fire this holiday season. But hear me out… the Sabres have a lot of exciting, young talent and are a surprisingly average team at even-strength. They’ve been wrecked by a cellar-dwelling power play and below-average goaltending. But with a core featuring Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Owen Power, plus other 23-and-under skaters Dylan Cozens, Bowen Byram, Zach Benson, JJ Peterka, and Jack Quinn, this group has plenty of upside. And one or both of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi should be a very good #1 goalie soon. You can’t print playoff tickets on upside, but Buffalo’s time to make a move is near. Right?
SCOTT MAXWELL: I’m going to partially agree with Matt here. I think it will be Ottawa, but in 2026. As Matt alluded to, the team has been much better than their record shows, and all signs point to some kind of regression to the norm. But at the same time, I look at the field ahead of them, and there are just too many teams to pass to get to the playoffs. While the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins aren’t exactly tough competition, it’s the fact that they will have to beat out one of the Tampa Bay Lightning or the New York Rangers for a Wildcard spot, and I just like those teams a bit more than the Sens (even as someone who has considered this Rangers’ core to be fraudulent for years). The only team in the playoffs right now I could see the Sens passing is the Boston Bruins, but even then, they’re already seven points behind them (albeit with three games in hand, but last season showed us that games in hand isn’t a guarantee for the Sens). It’s certainly possible for them to do it this year, but it already feels like a fair amount has to go their way to make that happen. Give them one more summer to reset and round out the depth (I’m looking at you, Travis Hamonic, Noah Gregor and Nick Cousins), and I could see this team being a playoff contender next season. At the very least, they’ll get there sooner than the Sabres and Red Wings.
ANTHONY DI MARCO: This is a really tough question, but with respect to consistency, I’m going to say Ottawa Senators – but in 2027. The Habs are still a ways away, while the Sabres and Red Wings have shown me no reason to give them the benefit of the doubt. Barring a major trade to shake up their respective cores, I can’t count on Buffalo or Detroit to make a push for the playoffs. The Senators, while still committed to their nucleus, have at least made significant additions in net and on the back end that signal they are open to change. Unfortunately, after another tough start to the year, I think it’ll take more than a season and a half under Travis Green to get them on track.
STEVEN ELLIS: Can the real answer be nobody? But I’m going with the Buffalo Sabres in 2026-27. And I think that’s just me being stubborn because I’ve been so high on their young talent for a while. But it’s been clear for at least two years now that they had to ship out a few of the younger pieces to bring in immediate help. Ryan McLeod was a start but not a needle-mover in the way they needed. I think they’re one aggressive GM away from making the right moves to be competitive – the base is there, but it’s time for someone who isn’t afraid to make big moves to get the team headed in the right direction. Sorry, Kevyn Adams. It’s time to move on.
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