Which NHLers have the best shot at scoring 50 goals in 2024-25?
After nearly two weeks away, it’s finally almost time for the NHL to get back into the swing of things.
A total of 28 teams will battle it out on Saturday, with players hoping to get things going again after all the time away. And for a handful of players, the chance to score their elusive 50th goal of the season will be on their minds.
Only one player is on pace to crack 50 goals this year: Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. Last year had four, while 2022-23 had five, so just one would be a bit of a surprise. Fortunately, there are six others within realistic chomping range – and if you like goal-scoring, you better start cheering them on:
Leon Draisaitl, C (Edmonton Oilers)
Current projection: 60
This is the only one that feels genuinely safe at this point. Draisaitl is a three-time 50-goal scorer, but is on pace to crack 60 for the first time. In fact, he had 41 goals last year, and is already at 40 in 26 fewer games. By all accounts, this has been Draisaitl’s most impressive NHL season, and he’s got a legitimate chance to win the Hart Trophy as NHL MVP for the second time in his career.
Draisaitl has eight multi-goal games and has scored in 32 of his 55 outings. He’s three goals away from breaking his personal single-season even-strength goals record, with his 29 leading the NHL. He hasn’t had to rely as heavily in scoring on the man advantage, with just 11 so far. He’s also first in game-winning goals at nine – Oilers fans know how clutch he can be. Draisaitl is having a season to remember, and that’s massive as the Oilers look to take the next step up in the Stanley Cup Final this year.
William Nylander, LW (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Current projection: 49
Nylander was one of the guys Daily Faceoff indicated as a potential first-time 50-goal scorer this season, and it’s looking quite possible. Most nights this season, Nylander has been Toronto’s best player, even though he’s on pace for a noticeable dip from his 98 points from a year ago. He can be a bit hot and cold, but he did snag a hat trick on Feb. 4. Of all the players on this list, Nylander is the only player in the top 10 in 5-on-5 goals-per-60, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Of course, there’s going to be criticism sent his way if Toronto can’t advance out of the first round of the playoffs yet again. But of the Core 4 forwards, Nylander has typically been the one who finds a way to produce in crunch time – he has 20 goals and 43 points in 54 career playoff games, including three goals in four games last spring. He still needs to take another step to crack 50, but he’s well on his way to smashing his previous career best of 40 goals.
Brayden Point, C (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Current projection: 48
Point joined the 50-goal club after potting 51 goals and 95 points in 2022-23 – a career-high in each category. He’s not on pace to beat that this year, but he’s likely going to register 90 points for the third consecutive season. The Bolts aren’t as dangerous as they once were with Steven Stamkos – especially on the power play – but Point has remained an absolute force, no matter his linemates. There’s a reason he was promoted to Canada’s top line with Connor McDavid at the 4 Nations Face-Off – Point just makes things happen with the puck, and he’s been easily one of the NHL’s most consistent scoring threats for the past three years.
Point missed time earlier in the season, so he could have easily been on pace for closer to 55 goals. Like Nylander, Point needs a few big performances to get him on track for 50. But with Tampa not guaranteed a playoff spot by any means, Point will need to take his game to another level down the stretch – that should help his chase for 50.
Sam Reinhart, RW (Florida Panthers)
Current projection: 45
Reinhart didn’t light it up at the 4 Nations Face-Off, but the Panthers would probably prefer he saves his hands for the Stanley Cup playoffs. Reinhart had 57 goals last season, absolutely annihilating his previous best of 33 by 24 goals. His massive uptick in offense was a big reason why the Panthers went the distance, and he doesn’t look to be slowing down with another 90-point pace in 2024-25.
Reinhart is on track for 12 fewer goals, but he’s known for some explosive multi-point games alongside Aleksander Barkov. There are actually multiple Panthers players with more shots and shot attempts per 60, but Reinhart is 15th in the NHL with a 20.8 shooting percentage. Talk about making it count.
Mark Scheifele, C (Winnipeg Jets)
Current projection: 45
Do you think Canada could have used him at the 4 Nations Face-Off? Scheifele is having one of the best seasons of his NHL career and is playing at a 90-point pace for the first time. Scheifele is shooting at a league-best 25.2 percent, which is far beyond his 17.3 career average, and nearly 10 points better than last year’s. It’s great to see him having a career-best season at 31, and it might be what helps the Jets contend for a Stanley Cup.
Scheifele has long been seen as the top candidate to become the first 50-goal scorer in Jets 2.0 history. So far, he hasn’t been that close, and needs a bit of help to make that happen this year. As long as he keeps vibing with Kyle Connor, who also appears on this list, Scheifele should be fine.
Kyle Connor, LW (Winnipeg Jets)
Current projection: 44
Speaking of Connor, fantasy hockey players have to love him. The 28-year-old winger has already blasted past his 61-point campaign from 2023-24 with a nice 69, and he’s projected to crack 100 points for the first time ever. The top-line winger has 19 multi-point games to his credit, including three four-point nights and four three-point efforts. Connor is one of the biggest reasons for Winnipeg’s incredible play this year, and it’s good to see the goal-scoring reflect that.
Connor is on pace for 44 goals this year, which wouldn’t match his previous best of 47. His rate fell a bit with a three-game dry spell before the start of the 4 Nations, and he didn’t find the goal column for the United States. But when he’s hot, he’s capable of going multi-game stretches where goalies just can’t figure him out.
Alexander Ovechkin, LW (Washington Capitals)
Current projection: 44
Had Ovechkin not missed 16 games with a fibula fracture, he’d likely be at the top of this list. In fact, he probably would have smashed the 60-goal barrier and challenged his previous best of 65 set back in 2007-08. So the fact he missed so much time and is still on pace for close to 50 is remarkable, and he’s doing it at 39 years old.
Ovi’s outstanding season has been one of the best by a greybeard in recent NHL history. He leads the NHL in goals per 60 at 2.27 and is second in shots per 60 at 12.3. Suddenly, the Caps went from a team most just seemed to write off to a group that just can’t be contained. And that’s largely because Ovechkin is playing with a level of confidence and poise that have seemingly rejuvenated him into playing some of the best hockey of his career. The goal-scoring race might be out of reach, but don’t count him out for 50.
_____